Gil Winston: Big M & Freehold analysis

The serious harness racing handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race?  In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.

The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter?

In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.

One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.

This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program.  The names of the horses receiving plus and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.

While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge. How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.

Expect to see charts from qualifying races where the tracks provide videos of them online. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.

Meadowlands Qualifier Analysis 10-21-23

Drivers and trainers approach qualifiers differently. Sometimes they want to see what a horse can do in race-like conditions. Sometimes they are only interested in making qualifying times. Some trainers want their horses in peak form for their first race after the qualifier, while others want them to race into form. Knowing how horses of each trainer performs can be critical. But you also need to stay current. There was a time when you always leaned on Croghan and Julie Miller horses in their first races off qualifiers. Croghan, especially, because his horses raced great off lackluster qualifier efforts, and frequently scored with generous payouts. Earlier this year, Noel Daley 2yos were monsters off lackluster qualifiers.

However, for the most part, you need to identify horses whose actual performance in the qualifiers are not reflected properly in the past performance lines, and that is what we are endeavoring to do for you here. Scores are opinions of differences between what you see on the form, and what actually happened.

Harness racing handicappers long for the days when there were more qualifiers.

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             2 KEYSTONE APACHE       2             Under strong hold. Capable of much more than 1:58:2

1             4 PROMISE FOR LIFE       1             Strong from behind gapper 5/8 – 7/8, then checked, even

4             2 HI COLORADO                1           Appeared to break due to whip on back, expect flat in next race

4             5 PROMINENCE                1             Demonstrative speed change when given head late in stretch

Meadowlands Race Analysis 10-20-23

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             6 ROCK TO GLORY            1             A couple of checks in the stretch

3             7 SHAKE IT TWICE            3             Multiple traffic issues

4             1 MARG IN CHARG           1             Never had a clear lane, had more

5             3 ROCKABILLY CHARM    1             Shuffled out, decent pace late

6             7 SUDDEN IMPACT           1             Good recovery after interference

6             8 SOLAR SOLUTION         1             3-wide most of fast 1q, then good close

8             1 NOTTINGHAM               -1           Benefit from breaker

8             5 SEVEN REPS                    1             Impacted by breaker

8             8 BRYANT BROS S             1             Use hard to top, maybe winner if flat

9             8 YER SO BAD                    1             Good recovery after interference

9             9 REVOLVER N                  1             Lost a lot of ground on interference

14           9 SHORE OF HIMSELF      2             3-wide most of 1q, checked in stretch

Meadowlands Race Analysis 10-21-23

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             6 ROCK TO GLORY            1             A couple of checks in the stretch

4             1 WATERFALL                    1             Much the best of horses stepping around gapper

5             8 TWO FRISKIE TO PET    2             Parked, then had an issue and fell to last, recovered well

6             4 CAVIART DAVIA             1             Clear to late with good pace

9             2 RIFLEMAN                      2             No room along the cones

Freehold Raceway Race Analysis 10-20-23

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             8 LAZIN ON THE BEACH  2             3-wide almost entire 1q, plenty left

3             6 VINTAGE GAL                 1             Caught in Blindswitch with pace

3             7 BRICKYARD BEACON    2             3-wide entire last half

4             1 LEVITATION                    1             Shuffled out, clear too late

5             2 SOMESURSOMEWHERE2             4-wide last quarter

5             3 THISWAYORTHEHIGHWY1           3-wide last quarter

Freehold Raceway Race Analysis 10-21-23

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             8 LAZIN ON THE BEACH  2             3-wide almost entire 1q, plenty left

5             6 JAXSONS WISH              1             Interference break

6             6 SLIPIN SLIP                      1             Behind gapper, 3-wide last quarter

8             7 ODDS ON STENO          I              Good after interference

11           6 GLOBAL CRUSH             1             Clear too late with pace

12           7 OFFICER BLUE CHIP      1             Winner if got to the outside sooner

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink