Gil Winston Meadowlands post-race analysis series

The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the harness racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race?  In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.

The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter?

In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost in the around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.

One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.

This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program.  The names of the horses receiving plus and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.

While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake.

Horses move up and down against competition (note, I said competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions.

But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge. How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.

Expect to see charts from qualifying races where the tracks provide videos of them online. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.

Below are my observations from this past weekend racing at The Meadowlands.

Meadowlands Friday, Sept. 1, 2023

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             1 ICE CREAM                     -2           No good before break

1             2 SOIREE HANOVER         -1           Followed winner

1             3 TACTICAL LORI               1             Slightly better than form in the lane

3             1 CELEBRITY BAMBINO   1             Clear too late on rail, winner after wire

4             3 MR BLUEBIRD                -1           Tripped out, dead aim

4             6 MY WAY                          1             Break caused by acceleration too close to horse in front of him

5             7 COCKTAILWITHAKICK   1             Trotting strong, then slowed down when blocked on rail

8             1 WATCH ME NOW N      1             Traffic throughout stretch, had some more

9             10 NEWSROOM                3             Open lead, then accelerated when challenged late, rare talent

12           7 BLUE PACIFIC                 1             Clear too late rail, maybe winner if clear

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

Meadowlands Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

3             1 P L OSCAR                       1             Shuffled out, gd mv when clear, but hung late

3             8 SONOFAMISTERY          3             3W 1/8, lost cvr, brush from 5^th, parked almost half, strong finish

6             10 ANNA’S WISH              1             Never clear

8             9 SKYWAY BILLY                1             Wide and checked in first quarter

9             9 BB LUCKY BOY               2             Wide and checked in first quarter, had pace in stretch

10           3 GALLIE GETAWAY          -1           Tripped out, dead aim

10          8 PEPPERMINT MAN       1             Clear too late with pace

11           1 SWANS EYE                    1             Best in stretch

11           4 NEXTROUNDSONME    -1           Perfect trip

11           7 TACHYON                        2             Wide first turn, check, pushed wide last 3/8

11           9 CALL ME DANI               1             Very wide first turn, parked long

13           2 GOTWUTEVERITTAKES-1            Walking at wire

13           5 HOLD ME CLOSER         -1           Benefit from breakers

13           6 JIVE NINETY FIVE          -1           Benefit from breakers

13           7 WOW LESTER                -1           Benefit from breakers

13           8 NICE GUY EDDIE            -1           Benefit from breakers

13           9 URNTROUBLEHANOVER 2         Interference break, good recovery

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink