The Lineup
This is the first in a series of handicapping angles that are frequently missed or not applied properly. This is one my most important handicapping angles, and you never see it addressed. Serious handicappers are always on the lookout for horses that are blocked in the stretch.
It is assumed that the further back a driver leans, the more pace or trot the horse has. First, let me address that important angle. Looking at the horse, itself, is more important than watching the driver. An experienced eye notices that the horse cannot extend his legs. It actually gives the illusion of climbing. The gait is rounder and shorter. While you should not dismiss the hold the driver has on the horse, the gait is significantly more important.
Now letās address the lineup. When I write this comment on my program, there are frequently big profits ahead in the future because, so few handicappers see or understand what they are seeing. Here is the common sense behind the angle.
- Most horses are not suicidal. They do not want to run into the horse in front of them.
- From the time they are yearlings, they are trained to follow other horses.
- Yes, there are crazy horses out there, but most of them follow comfortably.
Therefore, most horses continue to follow comfortably through the stretch as they had during the race. In fact, because they are somewhat tired, they might even appear even more docile than earlier in the race. Ā When they are behind another horse in the stretch, it may appear that they have no pace, but many of them will accelerate once they see a clear lane.
I have seen inexperienced drivers with their heads down driving their horses with great passion because they feel the horse is not giving his all. But the horse goes has no place to go, so there is zero increase in speed. You need to observe if the horse has a clear path because you can be sure that the horse is doing the observing.
No, you do not assume a horse has pace because he is lined up behind another horse throughout the stretch, but it is as big an angle as a horse who looks like he is loaded with pace. Horses are not machines and do not all behave alike. Some will climb when blocked. Some will pace evenly when blocked. Treat those excuses equally when next they race.
The difference is that the blocked horse racing evenly will go off at significantly higher odds than the horse that appears to be raging with pace. I have been rewarded through the years because I treat both those handicapping angles the same. You see this frequently in qualifying races where drivers will sometimes see no value at leaving the lineup in the stretch. Watch those qualifiers. Oh, how I wish qualifiers were as prevalent as in years passed.
A final word is you can have an advantage at the track, or if the video allows you to see the horses after the finish line. The horse frequently gets clearance after the finish and may show you something. Here, you may also want to observe the driver who may or may not take hold of the horse once the race is over.
Power to the punter.
by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink