Can superstars overcome outside posts in Dayton?

Will the outside post be the great equalizer for three of harness racing’s best aged performers this Saturday (Sep. 30) in Grand Circuit action at Dayton Raceway?

That will be a big part of the handicapping equation in three of the four Dayton Pacing and Trotting Derbies as standout trotters Alrajah One It (Maharajah) and M-M’s Dream (Swan For All) and pacing mare Grace Hill (Always B Miki) all drew farthest outside, traditionally a low percentage starting point. It’s a small sample size, but so far, In the first four race cards of the meet, starters from post 9 have clicked in only three percent of the races (1 for 32).

So where does that leave our three star performers, and does it make sense to try to beat them this time? Let’s take a look:

Race 11 – Dayton Oaks Derby for trotting mares 3YO and Up

(9) M-M’s Dream comes off a tremendous first-over performance over the Delaware County Fair half-miler when she was forced to take a seat early. She was parked for close to 3/4 of a mile and still prevailed. She has been an absolute win machine, taking 25 victories in 31 starts and she couldn’t be any sharper. Sounds like she is a lock, right?

Not so fast. This mare’s main rival (7) JIGGY JOG S comes in off a stellar 2nd-place performance in the $1 million Yonkers International where she beat some of the best trotters in the world. More importantly, she draws inside M-M’s Dream, and you have to think that pilot Dexter Dunn will be sending her and forcing M-M’s Dream into another tough trip.

Conclusion: I don’t see any mare outside of these two winning here. M-M’s Dream won the last two meetings in the Hambo Maturity and Steele Memorial, but this could be the spot where Jiggy Jog S works out the better trip and turns the tables. I give M-M’s Dream a slight nod, because she has been so good recently, but this is close to a toss-up between these two great trotting mares.

Race 12 – Dayton Distaff Derby for pacing mares 3YO and Up

(9) GRACE HILL is one of the fastest pacers in North America of either sex. Not just a really fast mare. She just paced a 1:48.0 winning mile at Mohawk Park coming off a short break. She showed here on August 25th that she can blast and overcome a wide post. When she is in peak form, she is the best mare in this division. That being said, she is no lock from post 9 and here are some others to consider for your late Pick 4 tickets:

(7) MAX CONTRACT has a history of springing huge upsets, and she comes into this race as sharp as a tack. Check out her race two starts back in Kentucky where she fired a 25.3 kicker to win going away facing some good male pacers, including sophomore Hungry Angel Boy. If you can get the Pick 4 down with her part of it, you will do very well.

(2) SILVER LABEL had no answer for the choice at Mohawk Park, but one race is a small sample size and she beat that rival earlier in the year. She shouldn’t be taken lightly.

(3) PRHIBITION LEGAL had a short campaign at three and a late start to her four-year-old season, but she is sharp now and capable vs. these with the right trip. One to consider for deeper Pick 4 tickets.

(8) MIKALA comes to play every week and she will be a big price in here. She should at least be used underneath in Tris and Supers.

Conclusion: Grace Hill is the most likely winner, but if several of her rivals decide to leave and she gets parked a long way she is beatable. This is a spread race for me.

Race 13 – Dayton Trotting Derby for 3YO and Up

(9) ALRAJAH ONE IT has been nothing short of phenomenal since arriving from Italy last summer, going 4 for 4 against the best on the continent and earning $500K. To me, the time to try to beat him was in the Maple Leaf Trot coming off a year layoff after recuperating from an injury. He is one of the best trotters I have seen in several years. I don’t often use the term “freak” to describe a racehorse, but if there is one, it’s him. If he gets a clean trip, I don’t see him getting beat. Now, what if he doesn’t get a clean trip?

The other one you have to look at is (5) ITS ACADEMIC who is in the midst of a stellar campaign of his own with eight wins in 13 starts and $743K banked. That being said, he got a good trip racing on the engine in the Maple Leaf Trot, produced a 1:50.3 mile, and still couldn’t handle Alrajah One IT. It’s Academic is a great racehorse but his best may not be good enough again to take down the Italian stallion.

For the bottom of Tri and Super wagers, consider using steady (2) LOVEDBYTHEMASSES who was flying at the wire last time to get third, but ran out of racetrack.

What about the fourth Grand Circuit race?

Race 14 – Dayton Pacing Derby for 3YO and Up

(5) TATTOO ARTIST shoots for a fifth straight win after taking only two victories in his first 14 tries this year. He has been pacing out of his skin recently. If you don’t believe me, go watch last week’s 1:47.3 win at Mohawk Park that he made look like a training mile. He can lead, sit or race uncovered a long way and still get the job done right now. He’s hard to bet against.

One I would consider using underneath in exotic wagers is (4) LOUS PEARLMAN who never gets bet but frequently outraces his odds.

Conclusion: This is not a spot where I will look to try to beat Tattoo Artist. He has just been too good since the end of August, and he is perfectly drawn to win this Dayton Pacing Derby.

Good Luck with your plays!

For complete race entries, click here: US Trotting entries.

by Garnet Barnsdale, for Harnesslink