Feedback on the leaning back syndrome

As usual, there was quite a bit of feedback on the “leaning back syndrome” encompassing our harness racing sport these days with one particular one, from Orland Park, Illinois, grabbing my attention.

Rick from that great Chicago suburb said, “I have been playing the races for over 50 years and I play the closers and have been for all my life and I’m not about to change now. A closer is a closer and saves the best for the stretch drive.

“I made some killings at Washington Park and Sportsman’s Park…and Balmoral, too.

What got me was one single word…CHANGE!

I’m guessing Rick is about my age since he’s been “punting” for over 50 years.

Heck, since then, the cell phone has been brought into the world, DNA testing, barcodes to make shopping easier, digital cameras, GPS systems for the cars were in the beginning stages, DVDs…a thousand more…10,000 more…

So, what’s changed for harness racing in 50 years?

Well, in Chicago, Washington Park is gone…Sportsman’s Park is gone…Balmoral Park is gone…and Maywood Park is gone.

The first three named tracks had long, long stretches…Washington Park’s was 1,320 feet, Balmoral was 1,360 feet and the Sportsman’s Park straightaway, although “only” 7/8s was close to 1,000 feet. (When it was a 5/8th oval, it was the longest stretch by far for that sized track.)

The days of Poplar Sonny and Rockette Forbes and Lemuel and Morenci Chief closing like a freight train for Bobby Williams are long gone (as are the days of Lou Rapone sneaking to the half with Pole Adios in 1:02 to win in 1:59.4.)

But we’re talking closers here and the further you are back at the start in, today’s harness racing world, the less likely one is going to cash a ticket.

Rick from Orland Park propelled the idea of going through more than 800 races this last week at every track in the United States that offered harness racing. From Sunday, October 15 through Saturday, October 21.

Tracks were of all sizes and included Bangor, Batavia, Cumberland Run, Dayton, Freehold, Harrah’s Philly, Harrington, Hawthorne, Hoosier Park, The Meadows, The Meadowlands, Monticello, Northfield, Plainridge, Pocono Downs, Rosecroft, Saratoga, Shenandoah Vernon Downs and Yonkers.

There were well over 800 races contested with every class used—none left out—from Maidens to the Breeders Crown eliminations.

It’s ironic that the words “closer” and “closer” (spelled the same way) have meanings that defy each other.

A “closer” to which Rick (from the great Chicago suburb of Orland Park) eludes is a horse that comes from lengths behind the leader off the pace to reach the winner’s circle while our sport has radically changed so that it’s very important to be “closer” to the front to hit the charmed winner’s circle these days.

After the results from last week’s races from 20 different tracks and a few more than 800 races, reveals that the further away a horse was at the opening quarter, the less likely it would reach the winner’s circle.

At the opening quarter “call,” 312 of the horses with a “1” at that first station went on to win—that’s within a “nk” of 40 percent.

Another 183 horses that were charted “2” (with some outside going for the lead) went on to win, meaning a horse that’s second at the opening quarter won about 22 percent of the time.

That means that 496 of the 800 that were first or second at the first quarter—about 62 percent—were winners.

Going back to being “3” on the chart at the first quarter, 97 went on to win, equal to less about 12 percent.

If a horse was fourth at the opening call—and there were 89 of those—the odds of winning were about 11 percent.

A total of 68 winners were fifth early on—about 8.5%—with the numbers dropping significantly after that with 46 winners coming from sixth (less than 6%), 23 winners coming from seventh (about 3%) and a “bit” less than 1% coming from eighth and 1/2 of 1% after that!

In this 800 plus races, only five came from more 10 lengths or more off the leader early—one of those when the last half was 1:02.4 after a very fast half and yet another came from 10 1/4 lengths away with the official last quarter in 31.1.

What seemed as significant was that all track sizes had their share of gate-to-wire winners—or winners that were first or second at the opening marker.

In breaking down the odds of winning after the race is started, the leader at the quarter would be 5/2 (without takeout),the horse second at the opener would be 4/1, the horse in third would be 8/1, the one in fourth would have odds of about 9/1, fifth would be just 11/1 (but a high 11 to 1), sixth would have odds of 17 to 1, a horse in seventh would have odds of about 35 to 1, next would be the horse in eighth at the quarter (99 on the tote board) and any two horses after that at the back of the pack  at the opening quarter would be “Geremy Bobbitt” specials!!

Maybe this would be the perfect “prop” bet to get more interest in racing as the BDHP that has $20 on the nose of a 5 to 2 chance that seventh at the quarter might be interested in a “get even” prop bet offering 17 to 1.

Yes, just as the word “closer” has different meanings innerness racing, so does the word “times” and, yes, “times” change in any ways.

From years gone by to the 1:48 mile, “times change” and unless we are able to adapt to the change in the times, we’ll all be left at the starting gate!

by John Berry, for Harnesslink