Gil Winston: Meadowlands & Freehold analysis

The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race?  In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.

The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter?

In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.

One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.

This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program.  The names of the horses receiving plus, and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.

While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge.

How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.

Expect to see charts from qualifying races at The Meadowlands if they are deemed relevant. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.

As noted, while high scores are not necessarily horses to play next time out, they provided a huge edge for the player this weekend and a few popped at nice prices while one winner was disqualified.

Freehold Friday Race 4 – Lazin On The Beach win at 5-1.  Trifecta paid $600 and super paid $250 for a dime, despite 1-2 favorite finish second.

Freehold Friday Race 6 – Levitation win at 7-2. Trifecta paid $260.

Meadowlands Friday Race 7 – Disappointment in Race 8 as Revolver N won from here to jabib at 6-1, but driver got a little too anxious and went inside pylons before inside lane opened wide.

Meadowlands Saturday Race 3 – Caviart Davia win at 8-1

Meadowlands – Friday, October 27 analysis

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             3 FIRE LIGHT                      1             Lost extra ground going wide last turn

1             5 HARRY HANOVER          1             Clear too late, some pace

2             8 SOLAR SOLUTION**     2             Wide first quarter, then never clear with pace

5             6 LINCOLN BOULEVARD 1             Blocked with some pace

5             8 SUNSHINE’S FINEST     1             Never clear

6             3 PYRENEES HANOVER   1             Had more pace than apparent

6             5 FASNACHT HANOVER  1             Never had clearance in pocket

7             11 BIG CHARLIE MORAN1             Spot the field 5 lengths before start

12           1 DEBUT                             1             Never clear with pace

12           4 MIRACULOUS DEO       1             Accelerated when clear

Meadowlands – Saturday, October 28 analysis

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             7 ROCKABILLY CHARM    1             Blindswitch, never had a chance

5             6 BIZYS BEATLE                 1             Had more pace in lane than was apparent

11           1 OOH REAL GOOD          1             Clear too late, some pace

12           6 FREESTARFLIGHT           1             Accelerated when clear

12           9 PERFECT QUEEN           2             4-wide past 1/8, 3-wide past q, parked past 3/8, fast ½

Freehold Raceway – Friday, October 27 analysis

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             7 LIFE’S ILLUSION             1             Weaving in stretch, ended up in lineup, some pace

3             7 TWO MORE DREAMS   2             Behind dull cover, swept, then checked twice in stretch

4             3 LAZIN ON THE BEACH  1             Easy win – *Received positive score in last, paid $12.60

4             6 LINCOLN’S GIRL N         1             Race was over before she cleared with good pace

5             6 JOSSIE JAMES A             2             Very wide both clubhouse turns, won easily

7             7 GAIUS CRASTINUS        1             Clear too late with pace along pylons

8             6 EDEN PAIGE N               1             Consider the break  an interference break – was shut off

9             6 LADY ELIZABETH           1             Interference caused a 3-length loss in first quarter

10           6 THAT’SMYTYPE              1             Blocked with some pace in back of field

Freehold Raceway – Saturday, October 28 analysis

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             1 HURRIKANE IRONHEAD-2          Trouble negotiating half mile track turns

1             1 HURRIKANE IRONHEAD2           Expect big improvement if moved to Meadowlands

3             5 ALWAYS RUTHLESS       1             3-wide most of 1q

6             3 MY NAME IS HAIRY      1             Tight quarters, then lineup at wire

8             3 DRINKIN AGAIN             ?             Possible equipment issue. Consider if right back in

9`            5 LYONS STEEL                  1             Weave with some pace

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink