There’s gold in them thar qualifiers

Matthew Flemington Stephenson gets credit for the iconic American phrase, “There’s gold in them thar hills.”

Many mistakenly believe that the phrase was in reference to the gold-saturated hills of California during the 1849 gold rush that sprung to life with the discovery of gold at Sutter’s Mill in 1848. The truth is just the opposite. Stephenson was an assayer in Georgia, and he coined the phrase in an attempt to keep Georgians in Georgia because he claimed there was plenty of gold in the hills of Georgia.

The line was popularized by Mark Twain in his novel, The American Claimant, as Twain had heard the oft repeated phrase by Georgians who moved to California in search of gold in those thar hills.

In harness racing, the real gold is in qualifiers. How many times have you been told to back away from playing horses that have not raced in months? Probably not as often as horses that have won at generous odds. Do not make the same mistake as MF Stephenson and of “sticking to one’s guns” (aka, stubbornness) while ignoring qualifier gold. It is time to venture where the real gold lies.

Here’s the thing. As opposed to the drivers, trainers and owners, the horses do not know the difference between qualifying and pari-mutuel races. As a handicapper, you should follow the thinking of the horse as opposed to the aforementioned human beings. It is a reasonable assumption that a horse who has not had a charted race for an extended period prior to the qualifier should be expected to perform better in the race following the qualifier.

The single most damaging event to harness racing handicappers was the extended period allowable before qualifying is required. It is a double whammy. Not only do bettors miss out on the biggest handicapping edge harness racing has over thoroughbred racing, but it creates undefinable mysteries by seeing horses racing after multiple weeks of inactivity.

The cause of this change traces back to horses no longer being stabled at most tracks. Owners finally reacted to the added expense of shipping for races that produce no revenue, and racetracks yielded. The current rules of engagement are unacceptable to harness racing bettors, and a means to repair the damage must be found.

However, qualifiers still exist, and still provide generous opportunities. While there is no substitution for being at the qualifiers, it is frequently hard to get motivated to travel when there are so few qualifiers on any given day. In addition, few tracks offer videos of their qualifiers. That, too, must change.

To profit from these qualifiers you need to know what to look for when you see the races or read the qualifier charts if you cannot view them.

Watching Qualifiers

The first things to watch for is obvious. You are looking for drivers with snug holds on their horses. You are looking for horses that you believe would have gone faster if the driver had eased up on the lines. Similarly, you are looking for drivers who are urging their horses down the stretch.

This extra encouragement makes you dubious about improvement in their next race. Before moving on, let’s reevaluate these two observations. The hold drivers have on their horses can be deceiving, especially in these days where drivers regularly lean way back in the sulkies. More important is watching the horse. Does his head appear to be pulled back? Does his neck appear arched? Those two items are better indicators. If you are familiar enough with the way the individual drivers restrain their horses, then you are too cool for school.

As for the drivers who urge their horses through the stretch, do not be so quick to degrade the horse because of it. The question is, “Did the horse accelerate under urging?” Until such pinpoint fractional statistics are available, you can only trust your eyes to determine if urging produced positive results.

In a previous article, I mentioned the lineup. This is a situation during a race where a horse has an object (i.e., a horse and a driver sitting on a sulky) directly in its path. Horses are trained to not run into things, and will frequently not do so, even if his navigator sitting behind him is urging him to go on. During races for purses, this is an unhappy circumstance for the horse’s connections and the bettors who hoped for better. In qualifiers, it is frequently intentional.

While some drivers act as if winning qualifiers is teaching the horse a valuable lesson, others could not possibly care less. It is up to the observer to seek out the lineup-impeded horses for future wagers. Where possible, try to observe if the horse gains clearance after the finish line, and if it accelerates.

Most important during the qualifiers is the fact that there is no incentive for drivers to move around dead cover in time to win the race. Frequently the winner of the race has been determined before the horses in the back of the pack decide to race. It is these horses that produce the most longshot winners when next they race.

What you are looking for is ‘how horses’ function in comparison to other horses around them when they are not in contention for the race victory. Players who focus on the horses fighting for the win in qualifiers are usually seeking short prices. Those who identify the “kings and queens of the back of the pack” are usually seeking double-digit price winners.

Reading Qualifier Charts

You have no access and/or no time to view qualifiers in person. What can you learn from the charts? The first thing is to start with the basic knowledge of racetrack dimensions. On half-mile tracks, the distance around turns is the same for each quarter. On a five-eighths track, the third quarter is the only quarter that is mostly straightaway. On a mile track, it is the second quarter that has the straightaway. You are looking for extra speed in what should be the slower quarters.

Only on the mile track, is it expected that the last quarter will be faster than the third quarter. The faster last quarter is impressive on the half-mile track, more so on a 5/8 track. This is especially true for front runners. I am always looking for wire to wire winners who pace or trot the last quarter faster than the third quarter. Of course, if the early quarters are quite pedestrian, the last quarter should be faster.

It is not uncommon for there to be great disparity in ability for individual qualifying races. When a front running horse has an open length lead when entering the stretch, accelerating in an unchallenged final quarter leads one to expect a horse ready to pounce in his next race. In races where there is such a distinct class edge, it is even more valuable to notice the best horses that are being beaten double-digit lengths. They will be facing easier competition when they race.

As mentioned in the previous paragraphs on viewing races, you are looking for comparisons to the horses traveling together. The chart can identify if horses are passed in the stretch. As with regular races, seeing ground lost while passing horses is an extremely positive angle.

Common Sense

It is important to compile your own list of successes and failures of horse performance in races immediately following qualifiers based on trainers and/or drivers. As I mentioned in a previous article, Ross Croghan horses used to race much better than their qualifying efforts, and John Campbell qualified horses raced much better in their next start, regardless of who drove the horse in its next race. Those tendencies do change and do not shy from changing your opinion when trends change.

But those observations are tweaks. The amount of success reached based on viewing qualifying races has been enormous over the years. I recommend viewing and application of observations of those races to be of paramount importance to those who take their handicapping seriously.

Power to the punter.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink