Is trickle-down economics killing our sport?

Trickle-down economics can be described as a policy that is said to help any person or entity that has favored those in the upper echelon of the economic spectrum with the hopes that such a policy will “trickle down” to those less fortunate in the form of economic growth.

There doesn’t seem to be any theory or theories stitched to trickle-down economics and, in examining the effect on our harness racing, “trickle-down” economics just might have the opposite effect for our sport and its future survival.

Of course, no individuals or segment of the industry has been singled out but, in looking over some stats from the past, say, three decades or so, some every day, ordinary folk have surfaced pointing the finger in a couple of directions.

“It is beginning to look similar to Amazon putting companies like Borders, Circuit City and Tower Records, to name a few, out of business,” said our main man Hughie.

“There is an investment firm, in fact, that had an index entitled “Death by Amazon,” tracking the stock prices of dozens of companies that were/are threatened by AMZN.”…

Amazon, of course, isn’t the only reason for the demise or threatened demise of companies.

Poor management and slow, antiquated thinking have had a hand in this, as well.

Grocery stores, department stores, office supply stores, clothing companies, sporting goods stores and foot apparel outfits have been put in peril…and the reasons that our grand sport is in a “bit” of trouble looks similar.

Yes, Amazon and some other companies like Walmart, eBay, Alibaba and Rakuten, again, to name a few, have changed the landscape of retail businesses.

One cannot fault them for finding the way to think forwardly without fear.

They thumb their noses up to those left at the “starting gate” and say, “too bad!”

Hughie notes that “we don’t have dial phones anymore…or typewriters…or a million other things.

“With artificial intelligence at our front door, it can only get worse!”

Indeed, even traders on the New York Stock Exchange floor are feeling the heat from “AI.”

Same is true for our sport as the top FIVE or SIX trainers—there are probably a couple of thousand still in the business—have gobbled up almost 10% of the purses paid thus far in the first half of the year.

One cannot fault them as they found a way to their great success…and they deserve every nickel.

Casinos are constantly “refreshing their floors with new, innovative gaming machines, including historical racing—with no 25% or 35% bite!—to go with locked in odds.

We’re just standing still!

In viewing things, a “bit” further, the breeders just may be a reason that threatens this sport with demise.

Their record-breaking sales that have produced gigantic yearling prices.

It seems to be because our breed—unlike other equine breeds—has gone from one of durability to one strictly bred for speed.

Unlike the “good ol’ days when the driver-trainer carried a stopwatch trying to get to the three-eighths in :47 seconds and half in 1:02 and change to get to the winner’s circle, the catch-driver now is at that same spot in 41 seconds—30 lengths faster—and half in :54 with a philosophy that the only thing that matters is the finish line which is, quite possibly, also 54 seconds away…maybe faster…no matter the cost!

There were about 1,300 races contested during the first half of the year and, with just a few exceptions, the track’s aprons were, for the most part, empty, meaning our sport has weaned away from being a spectator sport and the bettor has weaned away from wagering pools that are stretched so thin that they offer little value, especially with some hefty 25%-35% rakes.

Randomly selecting one night’s racing results from “not-even-a-handful of tracks” recently, the win mutuels read $3.40, $4.40, $3.00, $2.70, $3.30, $2.40, $2.90, $3.40, $2.20, $4.50, $2.20, $4.10, $2.70, $3.30, $2.90, $4.50, $3.20, $3.80, $3.60, $4.60, $4.60, $3.70, $4.40—keep reading—$2.70, $3.90, $3.70, $4.10, $4.20, $3.40, $2.20, $5.00 and $3.20…

If you got tired of reading this…HOW DO YOU THINK THE BETTORS FEEL BETTING ON THIS??? (And having to endure a painful 20 minute drag time in between races!)

As Hughie says, “There’s nuttin’ to drag for these days!”

Since the complexion of the sport has changed so much, two noticeable things have taken place that seem to be slowly decimating harness racing.

The breakneck speed of today is the genius of the breeders as black ink is the only ink that matters in a sales catalog.

After the hammer has hit the block and all terms settled, they are basking in records with the “hammer” now  on the trainers to attempt to recoup the investment with their skills (and luck) and the owners living on a wing and a prayer that the ONE they have bought is the top one in their respective divisions of the many hundreds that have had their credentials—unproven, of course—defined by the black ink in the sales catalog.

When races are written, they are written for those involved in the industry—NOT THE BETTOR.

When a somewhat matched field is put together for our young horses in stakes event with, say, 50 eligibles  going in five divisions, when all is said and done, when there is a dominant horse or two in any division, all the others—whether they have been photo’d out in 1:50 or finished well back—are eligible to that same NW1 or NW2 with the probability of a 2 to 5 chalk going to the gate,  resulting in a row of win mutuel prices as shown above.

It’s inevitable! And the result is another player lost to the ages.

One-by-one, we lose them and their pari-mutuel dollars.

But WHO CARES?

We have the crutches of casinos and legislatures for harness racing’s “Social Security” or, maybe a better term is WELFARE, which sounds even scarier!

Sure, there are some bright days and bright spots…Hambletonian Day, Breeders Crown events, Kentucky Futurity, Little Brown Jug, etc…a few others…

And, sure, there are a few tracks holding their own…but not many.

It’s a reality check that, on some racing programs, purses are more than the pari-mutuel handle…or close to it!

Yes, tomorrow will be OK…and the day after that and the day after that.

But what will happen when these casino companies look at the figures and see that, after paying out $100,000 or $150,000 or more in daily purses, the pari-mutuel handle supports ONE-TENTH of that amount, with shareholders breathing down their necks for results with the reality that scrapping racing will add numbers to their bottom line?

What happens when the Florida fiasco begins to spread throughout the land…THEN WHAT?

Add to that, the breeders are looking for speed and racing careers only for two-year-olds and three-year-olds (maybe stretching to four in a few places) as that is what spurs those yearling prices.

There is now evidence of shorter racing careers for our four-legged friends these days and that will result in shorter fields behind the gate.

Less and less aged horses racing will mean less and less races and shorter field.

Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky are OK…Pennsylvania seems OK…for now.

The great Meadowlands is…well, the great Meadowlands.

But shorter fields lead to shorter mutuel prices, and the result is an attrition of our already waning fan base.

We are in trouble when a $50 win bet knocks down a horse from 6 to 1 to 5 to 2.

Instead of trickledown economics helping those underneath the top echelon, this is having an opposite effect for those trainers not, say, in the top 100.

What’s that mean? It means that the other 900 or so are left holding the bag—and not a bag of oats!

Way back when, I mean WAY back when, in North America, harness racing was conducted in over 1,300 venues…YES, ONE-THOUSAND THREE HUNDRED.

It covered cities from “A” to “Z”

Abilene, KAN, Bardstown, KY, Calgary, Canada, Delaware, OH, Earlville, IL., Fargo, ND., Green Bay, WI., Halifax, N.S. Can., Independence, IA., Junction City, KAN., Kent. WA., Little Rock, AR., Memphis, TN., Napa, CA., Ogden, UT., Potsdam, NY., Quincy, CA., Reno, NV., San Angelo, TX., Turner Falls, MA., Ulrichsville, OH., Vischer’s Ferry, NY., Walla Walla, WA., Xenia, OH.,York, NE., Zanesville, OH., just to sample a few.

Those days are gone forever, and we’d better get busy and see the light that TIME, no matter which way it be looked at it, is NOT on our side!

May The Horse Be With You

by John Berry, for Harnesslink