Betting horses at 1/5 or less, bupkis!

Odds bupkis. Bupkis is Yiddish meaning absolutely nothing. And that’s just about what you get when you bet on a horse at odds of 1/5 or less.

I am old enough to remember when 8/5 odds meant that the horse with those odds was a huge harness racing favorite. Horses going off the insane 1-9 odds were reserved for champions. In today’s world, very few race time favorites are more than even money.

Now, it is not unusual to see those odds attached to favorites in cheap claiming races, and green two-year-old trotting races where the participants frequently break stride at inopportune moments. Plus, two-year-old horses are notoriously inconsistent as their trainers are constantly learning something new about them during those formative “days” after they start their racing careers.

Form reversals in lightly raced two-year old races are more rules than exceptions. Yet, we see the favorites in those two-year-old races to be less than even money, race after race.

Let’s take a peek at a typical day at Anyharnesstrack, USA.

Here is Sunday, August 11, 2024, at every harness track that raced in The United States. We could have chosen any other day, and the results would have been similar, click here .

When harness racing owned the night, hardly any favorites were even money or less. But in 2024…

At Harrah’s Philadelphia, 11 out of 14 race favorites were even money or less.

At Pocono Downs, 9 out of 14 race favorites were even money or less.

At Northfield, 13 out of 15 race favorites were even money or less.

At Ocean Downs, 10 out of 12 race favorites were even money or less.

At Running Aces, 10 out of 12 race favorites were even money or less.

At Red Mile, 15 out of 18 race favorites were even money or less.

At Tioga Downs, 11 out of 15 race favorites were even money or less.

For you stat freaks, that adds up to 79 favorites in 100 races that were even money or less. In our more simplistic rounding world, we simply say that 80% of the favorites were even money or less. If you only bet favorites, you would need to hit four out of five to break even if all of the favorites were even money. But so many of them are significantly smaller odds. If that statistic does not blow you away, I do not know what will.

Since favorites win less than 50% of the time at all tracks, and significantly less than that at some of them, this stat should make you give yourself a thorough thrashing “upside your head” for even thinking about wagering on any favorite.

How did this monumental change to betting odds become the new reality? Some are quick to blame AI. Those damned super-fast computers can calculate probable winners faster than any mere mortal. Right? Really? Seems to us that the late money going in on the most likely winners is costing the humans behind the AI calculations a fortune in losing bets. Or is it the customers of these AI betting schemes who are losing all of this money “Not to worry, AI will get all of your money back.”

Should we blame track handicappers who routinely expect favorites to win? I don’t know that they affect bettors that much. How about the ignorance of big bettors who do not realize how much their last second wagers affect the odds? You would think that they would learn the lessons quickly enough. Although maybe they don’t realize that they are the ones changing 2-1 to 1-5 in the last few seconds, and they are complimenting themselves on finding the hot “can’t lose” winner. All of this speculation seems thin, but we cannot deny the fact that these last second insane bets happen almost every race.

What about the giant rebates? I believe we have identified the most likely villain. Big bettors can receive rebates of up to 10% on their bets, win or lose.

Let’s do a little math. A $1,000 win bet on a 1-9 favorite puts an immediate $60 in the pocket of the bettor, if the bettor is receiving a 6% rebate. Faster than any bank, right? Oh, wait. There is still the matter of the bet requiring the horse to win. If it does, the bettor receives an additional $50, thereby clearing $110 profit on a $1,000 investment. That’s an 11% score. Winners have just turned 1-9 into something like 1-5. Can I get a woo-hoo?  Do these monster favorites win enough to justify these mindless bets? Review the results on a daily basis and see if you think it does.

I remember when bettors used to believe that horses under 1-2 won all the time. There were not enough horses going off at such short odds to verify or reject such beliefs.

Nobody believes that anymore. Ok, then, our job is easy. Avoid betting on those odds-on favorites and we’re beating the game. Oh, re-he-heally. Since more than half of the money wagered comes in just before betting is shut off, you have little chance of knowing the final odds.

Regular readers of my column have seen many of my scored horses win at odds of 30-1 – sometimes more than 50-1. Well, then, just play the hidden pace horses when they reach crazy odds. Here we see the same problem in reverse. Many of those horses were not astronomical odds in the time just before the crazy win money came in to create the sub-even money favorites.

The challenge of making money consistently at the harness races has changed precipitously. Since there has never been a sure thing, and never will be (although the “I knew that horse couldn’t lose” bettors who just cashed winning tickets might disagree), it is obvious that being an astute handicapper is not nearly enough to turn a profit. If you cash an amazing 60% of your bets on a given card, and they were all favorites, you probably ended up with less than you started.

We will delve into the challenges of the horizontal and vertical gimmick pools in a future column. That will include explaining the greatest of all cons – the carryovers.

Power to the punter

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink