The export of harness racing horses to Australia and North America from New Zealand has been with us since the industry was established in New Zealand in the 19th century.
There have been ebbs and flows in demand but the export market has never seriously affected the standard of the New Zealand harness racing scene for very long.
However the present market conditions are a "perfect storm" for New Zealand and have the potential to have a serious downside for the local industry.
Firstly the North Americans are back buying our horses bigtime.
A combination of the large drop in the value of the New Zealand dollar verses the greenback and a big rise in prize money due to slot machine revenue has reinvigorated the market from the North American end.
I can't fill the orders I currently have for the North American market due to the lack of quality horses available
Secondly the Australians are not buying the lower graded horses in the numbers they were due to the import fees but they are certainly picking the eyes out of the middle market.
Thirdly, the foal crops in New Zealand are continuing to fall to the point that even without those exports, we are going to have serious problems maintaining the race date structure we have.
Add it all together and the future for a lot of clubs in New Zealand trying to fill their race fields is bleak to put it mildly.
The obvious solution to the problem is to breed more horses but for the last decade or two, the opposite has been happening on the New Zealand breeding scene.
The major New Zealand studs are trying to pick up some of the slack by increasing the number of mares they are breeding inhouse and selling the resultant foals on as weanlings or yearlings.
Nevele R Stud in Christchurch is in the process of upgrading its broodmare band and will again breed a large number of horses for the local market.
" We have started selling at the weanling sale in the autumn and are looking to do more of that in the future," Nikki Reed told Harnesslink this week
Woodlands Stud has seen an opportunity in the marketplace with supply being unable to keep up with demand.
Consequently they are going to breed up to 130 mares this year which is a significant rise from the 40 odd of previous years.
" The economic fundamentals of the exercise taking into account all the costs involved including service fees are strong and we are confident of making a nice profit on the venture or we wouldn't be doing it," Andrew Grierson told Harnesslink this week.
Alabar Bloodstock is also aware of the shortage of horses and is breeding slightly more this year for the local market.
They cover their mares with the established sires like Art Major and Mach Three along with the newer boys on the block like He's Watching.
" We couldn't be happier with the bookings to date, with Art Major and Mach Three nearly full and He's Watching heading that way as well."
" I think breeders are aware that this is He's Watching first book of mares anywhere in the world and that has helped along with the fact he went 1:46.4."
" We have been selling the weanlings for a while and this has worked out well for us," Graeme Henley said when speaking to Harnesslink.
So the studs are making an effort to raise the number of foals they produce but at the end of the day we need to entice the average breeder with his one or two mares back into the breeding business.
The shortage of horses is not just a New Zealand problem but is one that is affecting the harness racing industry worldwide.
There is no sign on the horizon of that changing so the old hoary chestnut of "there never being a better time to breed" might actually apply in New Zealand in 2015.
JC