Crunching the numbers at Yarra Valley

Harness Racing Victoria’s Bronte Nieuwenburg has crunched the numbers and given her top four selections for the big features at Yarra Valley this afternoon.

De Bortoli Yarra Valley Trotters Cup

3.38pm

1. GIL FAVOR

Gil Favor has the ideal fence line draw off the front of the tapes. However, his performances recently have been inconsistent with his sectional times and behaviour. His best National Sulky Rating* in his last five starts is at least three seconds slower than the rest of the field. He is hard to have.

2. KYVALLEY HOTSPUR

A reliable horse who has the advantage of the front line draw. He consistently runs strong races and rarely puts a foot wrong which can be a significant advantage in trotting cups.

His National Sulky Rating is stronger over shorter trips. This indicates he could be vulnerable in this race over the longer journey if he has a tough run. However, he is likely to show a strong last 400m if he has an easy run in transit.

3. EASY PICKINGS

He made a mistake first-up in the St Arnaud Trotters Cup and trailed the field. He has now galloped three times in his last five starts. He performs best over the longer distance, but will need to improve on recent runs to win this event.

4. HAMMERS LAW

An experienced horse who sectionally performs best over the longer distance races. His National Sulky Rating is average in this field and will need to rely on finding a good position to be in the finish.

He hung in last start and now has had a gear change, which could lead to an improved performance.

Gear Added: Bit – Lugging, Blinkers – Murphy Blind N/S, Burr – Rein N/S

5. VISIONARY

The best rated (NSR) horse on Sulky.app in this event. She is ultra consistent with her performances and good behaviour. She has a very fast last 400m and sectionally performs best over the longer distance events. With the handicap advantage on Harry Stamper and Ollivici, she’s the horse to beat in this event.

6. OFORTUNA

On her day she’s a very nice mare, winning an Inter Dominion heat last year. However, her recent performances have only been fair. Her last 400m sprints recently have been poor and her behaviour has not been reliable. She will need to find her best form to win this event from the 10m handicap.

7. HARRY STAMPER

The second best rated horse on Sulky.app in this race. He has a strong last 400m, his recent behaviour has been good and he’s been sectionally performing best over the longer distances. Although he has a 20m handicap, he is the only horse off this tape, so he will have space to find his rhythm early. Great chance.

8. OLLIVICI

Third best rated horse on Sulky.app, with the fastest quarter speed and the best last 400m. He has begun badly in his last two stand starts. When he behaves, his performances are always consistently strong. However, he will need to make up his 30m handicap and race wide on the track to get around the field, which may make it too hard for him.

TOP FOUR

VISIONARY

HARRY STAMPER

KYVALLEY HOTSPUR

OLLIVICI

*National Sulky Rating (NSR) are comparative ratings that demonstrate a time trial performance on a 1000m track.

United Petroleum Yarra Valley Pacing Cup

4.58pm

2. ARGGGHHH

Arggghhh has a competitive and consistent National Sulky Rating and sectionally performs best over longer distance races. If he finds the fence, he will be a great place chance.

3. WESTERN SONADOR

Worst National Sulky Rating in the race. He also has inconsistent form and poor gate speed. Hard to see him in the finish.

4. CAPTAIN RAVISHING

Best National Sulky Rating in the race. His gate speed is competitive and is likely to eventually find the front, where he will be hard to beat. His sectional performances are best over the middle distance.

5. SERG BLANCO

Last-start Swan Hill Cup winner. He has a strong National Sulky Rating, the fastest quarter speed and last 400m sprint. He has great gate speed, but he is unlikely to find the front as he is only 0.6 lengths faster than Captain Ravishing. The task may be too hard if he can not find the fence over the longer trip.

6. KOSIMO

Rates okay on Sulky.app. He needs luck and to rely on his fast last 400m sprint.

8. LIP READER

His National Sulky Rating is strong and he will have the benefit of not needing to cover extra distance as he will be racing on the fence. He is a fast swooper if he doesn’t have to work too hard in his runs. However, he performs best over short distance races and may be vulnerable and outclassed in this.

9. BEAT CITY

Performs best over shorter distance races and his National Sulky Rating is the second worst in this event. However, he has a very fast last 400m sprint and is likely to improve from his previous runs as this is his third run back in Victoria.

10. MAX DELIGHT

Second best rated horse on Sulky.app in this race. His draw hurts as he ultimately will need to cover significant extra distance to win. He performs best over the middle distance, but he may be flashing late if the leaders get tired.

11. TANGO TARA

Rates very well on Sulky.app. However, like Max Delight, his draw stings. He will be relying on luck.

TOP FOUR

CAPTAIN RAVISHING

CURLY JAMES

ARGGGHHH

MAX DELIGHT

*National Sulky Rating (NSR) are comparative ratings that demonstrate a time trial performance on a 1000m track.

For complete race entries, click here.

by Bronte Nieuwenburg, for Harness Racing Victoria