The Elitlopp’s tall order, a moment for true believers

Just Believe’s (Orlando Vici) invitation to the Elitlopp is both something to celebrate and a wonderful opportunity to promote the sport.

It is also a tremendous recognition for the growing force that Jess Tubbs and Greg Sugars are, along with Down Under harness racing as a whole.

Remember, Just Believe will be only the third Aussie-trained trotter to contest a race widely regarded as one of the greatest in the harness racing world.

There is no mistaking the enormity of the challenge ahead, but how that’s seen as a negative by some is baffling.

This isn’t about winning the Elitlopp, it’s about being respected enough in the global harness racing to have a horse worthy of competing. And for that, Harness Racing Australia must take a lot of credit.

No doubt there has been a lot of influencing behind the scenes to get Just Believe on the raider of the Solvalla officials in the first place.

The previous two Aussie-trained invitees – Sundons Gift (2009) and Maori Time (2018) – tackled Elitloppet heats, but didn’t qualify for the final.

Since news broke of Just Believe’s trip, I’ve been swamped by people asking if he can make the final or win the whole thing.

“Our best gallopers go to Royal Ascot and win, why can’t our best trotter?” a friend asked.

It’s a good question, but one not answered easily.

As simply put as possible, it’s not really a fair fight for Just Believe in Sweden, a country where the trotter is King. It’s hard to comprehend as an Aussie, but thoroughbred racing is basically a cottage industry in Sweden and they don’t have pacing, just trotting.

Swedish racing is all about trotting.

Mathematically, we’re sending a horse who is from a section of Australian racing that accounts for about three per cent of the industry. Quick sums, harness racing is about 11 per cent of Australian racing (by turnover) and about a quarter of harness racing is trotting (not pacing).

More simply, Just Believe will go from a big fish in a tiny pond to swimming with the sharks in a giant ocean.

So, can he win? Most likely not. In fact, almost certainly not.

Can he make the final? Yes, but everything would need to go right.

Just Believe would have to travel across well, draw nicely in his heat, get the tempo to suit and then have the right luck when it matters.

Making the final would be a huge win given just one of seven Down Under trotters (Aussies and Kiwis) to contest the Elitlopp heats has made the final.

That was the pint-sized mighty mare Pride Of Petite way back in 1997. And even she just did it by finishing fourth (only the first four qualify) in a heat before running sixth in the final.

And, by any measure, she is one of the all-time great trotters we’ve produced Down Under.

The mighty Lyell Creek tried and should have made the final. He had no luck in traffic at a crucial stage when fifth in a heat.

And Lyell Creek would surely rank alongside Scotch Notch (and behind only Maoris Idol) as the greatest trotter Australasia has seen.

It’s important to manage expectations and to give context what would constitute “success” for Just Believe in Sweden.

For Tubbs, Sugars and everyone connected with Just Believe, success will be just being part of the great race.

Ask Chris Lang or Tim and Anthony Butt what great memories they have of their time being part of the Elitlopp.

As Tubbs so rightly said: “This is a once in a lifetime opportunity and I’m sure we’ll talk about it forever”.

Let’s all get behind it and enjoy the fact the Swedes chose “one of us” to be part of their special day.

by Adam Hamilton, for Harness Racing Victoria