The Inter Dominion puzzle becomes clearer

Two of the biggest questions of this Inter Dominion were answered – at least in part – at Ballarat last Saturday night (Nov. 26).

And they immediately reshaped betting markets.

It seemed everybody – even some who barely know the horse – had an opinion one way or another about the merit of Kiwi raider Bolt For Brilliance (Muscle Hill) being pre-series favourite for the trotting final.

One of the great things about racing are the varied opinions, but anyone declaring it nonsense Bolt For Brilliance was favourite must have slinked back into their corners after his effortless Ballarat win.

Yes, I’m hearing you, there was nothing special about the win, but there didn’t need to be. The simple fact he’s here, winning easily and sure to improve plenty from the first outing is more than enough.

Bolt For Brilliance is into $2 for the final and that could be luxurious if he wins his next two heats – which he should – and draws reasonably well in the December 10 Grand Final.

Remember the final is 2760m, which will suit him more than any other trotter in the series.

We’re talking about a trotter who has beaten Kiwi superstar Sundees Son on his merits. That sort of form is a different level to the best Aussie form.

Despite a back row draw over the sprint trip (1690m) at Shepparton on Tuesday (Nov. 29) night, Bolt For Brilliance should win easily again.

Already, after just one round of heats, I’m declaring there are just three-and-a-half winning hopes in the final.

Two of them – Just Believe (Orlando Vici) and Queen Elida (Love You) – fought out the first heat at Ballarat with the former dictating in front and zipping home in slick fractions to win easily. Queen Elida should have lost no admirers in defeat, given how the race was run.

They both look standouts at Shepparton. Just Believe has gate three and looks the leader in race eight.

It could be more interesting for Queen Elida from the pole. Vacation Hill (gate two) and Mufasa Metro (three) both have terrific early speed.

But with any luck, Queen Elida’s dazzling speed should carry her to victory.

The “half” chance goes to Majestuoso. I gave him a “pass mark” but nothing more on opening night. Whether he can improve on that from a wide draw (gate seven) at Shepparton is one of the keys to the night.

The other big question we had answered and quite emphatically on night one was which version of Expensive Ego would we see?

Yes, that’s probably a bit harsh, but for a pacer I love and believe is the best in the land at his top, I was scarred by his inglorious and mystifying seventh in the Victoria Cup on October 7.

But the “old” Expensive Ego (Rock N Roll Heaven) was back at Ballarat. He was THE run of the night – pacer or trotter.

And he’s now the horse to beat for the final.

It sets up a stirring clash at Shepparton in race five where I Cast No Shadow (Shadow Play) looks the leader for trainer Jason Grimson over the sprint trip and Team McCarthy’s Expensive Ego will likely sit outside him.

Memories of 12 months ago when Grimson’s eventual Grand Final winner Boncel Benjamin led in the sprint heats at Newcastle and went within a whisker of upsetting Team McCarthy’s King Of Swing.

The missing piece on the greatness of the Emma Stewart and Clayton Tonkin stable is lots of success at the top open-class level, but they moved towards addressing that by winning two of the three pacing heats with Act Now and Honolua Bay at Ballarat.

And Jess Tubbs’ dual Group 1 winner Better Eclipse showed why he’s a genuine Grand Final player with a soft heat win.

The pacing series has a lot more depth than the trotters, but after night one I’ve got my top four as Expensive Ego just ahead of Majestic Cruiser, Better Eclipse and Spirit Of St Louis.

Let’s see if it’s the same when I check in again next Monday.

For complete entries for Shepparton Tuesday, click here.

by Adam Hamilton, for HRV