Trent’s Tips – Albion Park 6th December

Albion Park hosts a massive night of racing on Saturday with The Blacks A Fake and The Great Square being run at Group 1 level.

Champion Queensland pacer Leap To Fame has tasted defeat three times in his last five starts and he looks to bounce back with a statement on his home track. Standing in his way will be Don Hugo and The Janitor.

Turning our attention to the trotters and we will see the superstar mare Keayang Zahara at prohibitive odds as she chases her 20th win from just 21 career starts.

Check out our race-by-race guide to Blacks A Fake Night in Queensland.

 

Race 1

SUPA AMERICAN (2) has won two of his last three starts, the latest in this grade when racing 1 out 4 back and carving home in a 53.9 last half. He had barrier six on that occasion and starting from barrier two looks even better. Will likely be used early to try and find the front but can win with cover too. Looks a great bet around the $4 mark.

ALTA WILLIAM (7) is an NSW-trained pacer for Chris Judd that has had two runs in Queensland this prep for a Redcliffe victory and a fourth in FFA company. Most likely wants the breeze position and racing well enough to go close from there. Beaten just 2.5m by Captain Shuffles is great form.

BRONSKI ZULU (1) ran well from this gate two starts back when runner up to the flying Tremendous Sensation. Was too far back last time against Alta William and with the good draw, driver Shane Graham has options.

Tips: 2-7-1-6

SUPA AMERICAN (2) to win

 

Race 2

WAIKAKA MAGIC NZ (2) has speed to burn at the start and Pete McMullen will be looking to do so from barrier two. He won five in a row early in his career before a stuttered prep that saw him race once in September for a fourth against Final Deadline, and then on November 25 when fifth to Reds Ablaze. He death seated and started to struggle around the 400m mark as the 1:50.7 mile rate proved too slick. If he can find the pegs, his chances are greatly improved – anything around $3 looks pretty good.

CHEERSTOLOU (8) is obliterating the clock right now with victories in 1:48.9 and 1:49.9. This is probably the draw they didn’t want, following out Gem Punter Pete. He has the best form and sectionals in the race but couldn’t take close to even money from the starting gate.

GEM PUNTER PETE (1) is probably the roughie that interests most if there is plenty of heat in the race, which looks a possibility with the times some of these horses can run. Will be hoping for a soft trip on the pegs and can run into the placings at odds if the tempo suits.

Tips: 2-8-1-10

WAIKAKA MAGIC NZ (2) to win

GEM PUNTER PETE (1) to win

 

Race 3

LUX AETERNA (8) is an NR 120 meeting rivals rated NR 95 or less in this Group 3 Forever Gold Mares feature. A multiple Group 1 winner, Lux Aeterna will be hoping SWEET MIA NZ (1) holds the front and look to fly past her up the sprint lane. She enters this event with back-to-back wins at Menangle. Nathan Dawson picks up the drive.

SWEET MIA NZ (1) leads as she has done at her past three starts – she has a win, second and third in that order. She consistently runs around the 1:51 mark when setting the pace and will be trying to hold off the NSW visitor, Lux Aeterna, who boasts the best CV in the race. There could be a consideration to sit and put the race favourite three back on the pegs.

SOAP OPERA (3) is a horse that I wanted to mention as she was brave last start when facing the breeze in 1:50.8. She still hit the line well despite the work and at monster odds, she is worth having something small on each way. Will need some cover and plenty of luck though.

TREMENDOUS SENSATION NZ (10) has a picket fence with seven straight victories and she may just win again. The back row draw looks a lot tougher over the mile and I am predicting that the winning run comes to an end here as she meets some quality opposition – looking at the Rickie Alchin mare.

Tips: 8-1-3-10

SOAP OPERA (3) each way

Trifecta: 1,8 / 1,8 / 3,4,5,6,9,10

 

Race 4

BERRIESANDCHERRIES (10) was an eye catcher as she savaged the line for trainer-driver Brendan Barnes. She finished third off her 10m handicap over the 2647m behind TAYLAD TO USE NZ (3) who began off the front and led. Barrier 10 won’t be easy, but this mare looks over the odds based on last start’s effort – she has run home in 56.2 and 57.1 at her last two starts and follows MUFASA METRO NZ (9) at the start.

SHEZA CHANCE (1) looks an improver from the inside barrier and will have options with her gate speed. She was sixth in the stand last week and looks better suited here in a very open Group 3 event.

Can make a case for a lot of these horses and not sure where to start with LOVE GUN (2), TAYLAD TO USE NZ (3), GET USED TO IT (5), ZEALOUS SPUR NZ (7) and MUFASA METRO NZ (9) all in the mix.

Tips: 10-1-2-5

BERRIESANDCHERRIES (10) each way

 

Race 5

RAKERO ROCKET NZ (3) joins trainer Jason Grimson for his first Australian start and he was last seen finishing 14th of 15 runners in the Group 1 New Zealand Cup won by Kingman. This is a huge class drop for the former Kiwi five-year-old and he can kick off his account with a victory. Currently $1.25 so would prefer to watch.

CYA ART NZ (8) chased home Captains Knock last time at Menangle and will get an economical trip on the peg line. Will have plenty to offer late and has strong place claims.

ALBY TWO CHAINS (9) scored in 1:50.6 at his previous start for Matt Elkins and continues to race well since joining the stable in Queensland. Another that has place claims in the race.

Tips: 3-8-9-1

Trifecta: 3 / 1,2,8,9 / 1,2,8,9

 

Race 6

KEAYANG ZAHARA (9) picks herself with a winning strike rate of 95% and it should be a one-act affair in the Group 1 The Great Square. She has been belting her opposition and there appears no reason why she won’t be doing that to this field. Deserves her $1.04 quote.

AJAY VOLSTEAD (10) has won two of his past four starts, the latest when sitting outside the leader and still proving too good. Running for a minor prize in this but can’t see how he beats Keayang Zahara.

MAORIS MAC (5) has been runner up three times in a row and there’s a chance that she could make it four-straight bridesmaid performances. Other place hopes include VALTINO (6), NORTHERN HEIGHTS (11) and SUNSET HILL NZ (12).

Tips: 9-10-5-12

AJAY VOLSTEAD (10) to place

 

Race 7

LEAP TO FAME (10) has the tremendous record of 59 wins from 75 starts and he looks to win his second Group 1 Blacks A Fake. He was runner up in the New Zealand Cup before winning the New Zealand FFA. He is going to have to sit outside DON HUGO (4) in order to win but has done that previously. He is a better stayer than Don Hugo and that’s the reason I am siding with the local champion.

DON HUGO (4) is the reigning Miracle Mile winner as he held off Leap To Fame in 1:48.4. He has won just once from seven over distances of 2601m or more. I prefer him over the sprint and middle distance, but he still has strong claims in the race with Luke McCarthy in the sulky.

THE JANITOR NZ (12) is the up and comer in Queensland with 17 wins from 29 starts. It is a horror barrier draw unless he can make a move first to land some cover behind Leap To Fame. At around the $5 mark, I couldn’t back him as he is not proven over the distance at this stage of his career.

Tips: 10-4-12-2

LEAP TO FAME (10) to win

 

Race 8

MULLUM HANK (8) was a winner four starts back in 1:53.0, after running a 53.9 last half. At his latest, he was in the breeze when fifth after making an early break. Looks set to get a soft run from the inside of the back row and looks one of the main contenders in a competitive race.

BALTUSROL (6) has drawn the worst of the key hopes in the race but has been sprinting home in sub 55 seconds. Cam Hart could send him forward from the gate and he is capable of winning.

CARBINEER (2) and SHARDS MATRIX NZ (1) represent Grant Dixon and both will be better suited here compared to recent runs where they hadn’t drawn well. This is not a race that is easy to decipher so would rather just let it run without any suggestion.

Tips: 8-6-2-1

No Tip

 

Race 9

FERNCO NEL NZ (5) is perfectly placed to win his ninth race from just 16 starts. He was excellent winning in 1:49.3, with a last half run in 53.4 seconds. He is a short price for a reason and it’s hard to see him being beaten.

WITHDISTINCTION (2) looks the most likely horse to run second in the event and Cam Hart will want to cross the horse to his inside and trail Fernco Nel. If there is going to be an upset, then this horse is the most likely to cause it based on the speed map.

UDDERLY SWEET (3) won’t trouble his stablemate as he will sit on the fence and try to run home into a minor placing.

Tips: 5-2-3-6

WITHDISTINCTION (2) to place

 

Race 10

KYLOAN QUEEN (3) has put together back-to-back victories for Matt Elkins and should be leading once again. The plan appears to be setting a strong tempo and running her opposition off their feet. Will give a huge sight as she seeks a hat-trick but can’t chime in at the $1.80 quote.

EYE SEE THESEASIDE (4) was an improved effort during the week and is on the quick back up. She chased home Seaside Glory in 1:52.8. My concern is the leader running along here which could make it tough for horses in the moving line.

OUT OF EDEN (2) chased home her stablemate Kyloan Queen and that looks to be the most likely scenario again. Minor chances also include HELL OF A HAND (1) and A PERFECT DANCE (5).

Tips: 3-4-2-1

No Tip

 

Summary

Best Bet: Race 2 – WAIKAKA MAGIC NZ

Next Best: Race 1 – SUPA AMERICAN

Best Value: Race 4 – BERRIESANDCHERRIES

Best Roughie: Race 3 – SOAP OPERA

 

by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink