Trent’s Tips – Melton 13th December

Breeders Crown Finals Night will be held at Melton on Saturday.

There will be four Group 1 features for the trotters and four Group 2 features for the pacing division. Each of the four trotting Group 1 races is worth $60,000 in prize money, while the pacers battle for $100,000 in stakes.

Leading trainer Emma Stewart has a massive hand with 16 runners competing at the meeting.

Here is our race-by-race guide to Melton harness racing on Saturday, December 13.

 

Breeders Crown Finals Night Preview

Race 1

BULLETPROOF BOY (10) is having a phenomenal season which includes defeating Leap To Fame in the Smoken Up Sprint (1720m) in October. Leading driver James Herbertson has options from the draw and could sit back to come with one run or put the 10-year-old veteran into the race. His sectional times are outstanding and he will go close.

TRIPLE EIGHT NZ (8) hit the line well last time out behind Bulletproof Boy as he dashed home in 53.7 seconds. Drawn to get a soft run on the pegs, Triple Eight could make them pay if the tempo is strong early. At around the $21 mark, he looks worthy of a small play but will need plenty of luck in running.

PETRACCA (4) is working through the grades and will be searching for the lead. He has won two of his past three starts, however, did taste defeat two starts back as a $1.22 favourite. Looks short enough in the market and it will be a good test to see him take on Bulletproof Boy.

Tips: 10-8-4-9

BULLETPROOF BOY (10) to win

TRIPLE EIGHT NZ (8) to win

 

Race 2

ITS CONFIDENTIAL (4) should work forward with the first plan from driver Nathan Jack to be finding the fence. Two starts back he weaved through traffic to rattle home from four back on the pegs to win in 1:52.7. Last start, he was also four back on the pegs and was hitting the line full of running in a 26.6 last quarter. He can be dangerous if he settles close in the run.

CAPTAIN PERFECT (10) looks like he will be doing all the work in the run for Emma Stewart and Mark Pitt. A winner of eight races from 18 starts, Captain Perfect won his heat as he repelled stablemate VINEY (9) by a narrow margin. Both are good enough to win the Breeders Crown 3YO Colts & Geldings Final.

PICK UP ELVIS (1) rates well on my data for trainer-driver Aaron Dunn and the market currently has him around $15. He lost a little bit of ground last time when the tiring breeze horse had had enough. His last 100m was good and Dunn’s gelding still ran home in 26.9 after covering extra ground. Could be dangerous on the peg line late.

Respect MAC BON (12) who won the final as a 2YO, but this is a horrible draw for him, and he would need to be herculean to win this.

Tips: 4-10-9-1

ITS CONFIDENTIAL (4) to win

PICK UP ELVIS (1) to win

 

Race 3

BETTOR BEACH (2) was breathtaking on debut, ripping home in 25.7 seconds to defeat stablemate ARRHYTHMIA (4). To see a two-year-old filly racing against horses that have won two, three, or even seven races, and make them look like they were standing still was phenomenal. Draws barrier two with Kate Gath driving once again, clear top pick for me in the Breeders Crown 2YO Fillies Final.

ARRHYTHMIA (4) was unbeaten in seven races before Bettor Beach decided it was time to bring the streak to an end. She is probably going to find the front which gives her strong claims, and she is good enough to notch another win if Bettor Beach doesn’t get an ideal passage throughout.

WILLOWS GIRL (1) has the inside draw and will trail or be three back on the fence. Emma Stewart has runners engaged in barriers one to six, and 12. Looks extremely likely to train the trifecta or first four in this race. Willows Girl is capable and has winning claims also.

Tips: 2-4-1-3

BETTOR BEACH (2) to win

 

Race 4

IJUSTCANTSEEIT (11) appeals at big odds in a very competitive Breeders Crown 2YO Trotting Fillies Final. She was beaten just 4.3m in the heat after racing well back in the field and then tracking up 1 out 1 back in the final lap. Will need some luck from barrier 11 with main rivals drawing better, but $26 is good enough to find out.

GLADIATRIX (2) finished second in the heat and may push on to the front from ELLE PERFECTO (1) this time around. A winner of six from nine, the NSW-trained trotter will be staking her claim in a race that has quite a number of chances.

ALDEBARAN ADA (3) was the winner of the heat against Gladiatrix and another nice barrier draw here ensures she will get her chance to win. Other key players include JILLIBY AURA (6) and HARPERSEVEN (7).

Tips: 11-2-3-6

IJUSTCANTSEEIT (11) each way

 

Race 5

KEAYANG BAZLENKA (3) looks a star juvenile trotter for the Lee stable and deserves his dominant $1.25 quote. He has won five of his six career starts, won his heat by 13.3m and smashed the clock, ripping home in 28.8 and 27.4. As long as he trots throughout, Keayang Bazlenka should be winning the Breeders Crown 2YO Trotting Colts & Geldings Final.

MUNNY THE MUNSTER (7) is possibly the quickest off the gate and there could be a consideration to try and blast across in order to hand up to the favourite. Last start, the Mark Lee-trained trotter sat outside Keayang Bazlenka and stuck on for second in fast time. Looks a talented young trotter and happy to be on for the place with something tiny for the win, just in case the favourite misbehaves.

HAMMER (1), UNCLAD (5), HOWDY MATE (6) and THE PREACHER (8) all have place claims in the race, although, they are most likely running for second behind a trotter of the future.

Tips: 3-7-1-8

MUNNY THE MUNSTER (7) each way

Trifecta: 3 / 1,7,8 / 1,5,6,7,8

 

Race 6

BEACH DIAMOND (7) has the credentials to prove extremely hard to beat as she has lined up 14 times for nine victories and four seconds. Two starts ago she won the Group 2 Vicbred Super Series Final and getting the barrier draw advantage on SOHO AMERICANO (12) looks crucial. She was beaten in the heat by PEACE OUT (5) who snuck a break on her at the top of the home straight, but Beach Diamond was cutting into that margin quickly near the line. Clearly goes on top for Emma Stewart and Cameron Hart.

PEACE OUT (5) caused the upset in the heat in a 2:05.2 mile rate, which almost looks like a typo. They crawled in that race, and we will see faster mile rates at Busselton over the Christmas break. Driver Lleyton Green will be trying to get the NSW-trained filly to the pegs and may relinquish if Beach Diamond pours the pressure on. Looks the main danger.

MY LITTLE BO (1) is a horse to throw into the exotics and could be a good place chance at odds. She represents Andy and Kate Gath, has the inside draw, and with a soft trip in the race, she should be finishing strongly.

SOHO AMERICANO (12) is the other class runner of the field alongside Beach Diamond. This is a terrible barrier draw for her, but she does gain one of Australia’s best drivers in Luke McCarthy. She looks too short in the market at $5 and will have her work cut out.

Tips: 7-5-1-12

BEACH DIAMOND (7) to win

 

Race 7

I AM WILMA (4) was phenomenal in the heat as she eye-balled the leader KEAYANG KURKI (3) and then put her to the sword with 300m left to travel, careering away to win by 8.6m. Based on that effort, Keayang Kurki should be handing straight up to I Am Wilma who should prove very hard to run down with Chris Alford in the sulky.

GATESYS GEM (5) looks the only danger on paper and may need to settle for the breeze position. She was a comfortable winner of her heat, but this will be a lot tougher with I Am Wilma getting the barrier advantage. She has won 10 of her 19 starts and should run a big race once again.

KEAYANG KURKI (3) has strong place claims, although it is hard to see her turning the tables on the favourite.

Tips: 4-5-3-1

I AM WILMA (4) to win

 

Race 8

MECARNO (5) has won five-straight races and looks to have the Breeders Crown 3YO Trotting Colts & Geldings Final at his mercy. Trainer-driver Michael Bellman should be finding the front in the event and from there, he should be winning. Bellman has two career Group 1 wins, both with Mecarno, and looks on track to make it three this season.

VYTIS (3) stands in his way after a solid third placing behind Mecarno in the heat. Will need everything to go his way in order to beat the favourite. The same can be said for ENCHAUFFOUR (7) who can fly the gate. He has given Mecarno a run for his money in recent efforts but may end up falling just short once again.

Tips: 5-3-7-1

No Tip

 

Race 9

LOUCASSO (1) is the dominant favourite for Emma Stewart and Mark Pitt. He has won six of eight career starts and looks extremely like to lead and win the Breeders Crown 2YO Colts & Geldings Final. The $1.20 quote is not something I could suggest but looks a good banker for the exotics as he should handle this field.

CARDIGAN DAN (8) is the stablemate and can follow Loucasso every step of the way. Looks the most logical danger if an upset were to occur. Strong top two claims from the good trailing draw.

LUVTOBEUPTOME (4) would have loved to have drawn the eight barrier here – faces a tough task from barrier four, but good enough to run into a minor placing.

Tips: 1-8-4-6

Exacta: 1 / 8

Trifecta: 1 / 8 / 4, 6

 

Summary

Best Bet: Race 6 – BEACH DIAMOND (7)

Next Best: Race 3 – BETTOR BEACH (2)

Best Value: Race 4 – IJUSTCANTSEEIT (11)

Best Roughie: Race 1 – TRIPLE EIGHT NZ (8)

 

Saturday Highlights

At Albion Park on Saturday, champion pacer LEAP TO FAME (4) will contest Race 4 as the $1.04 favourite against a field of four rivals. This race will be historic for the Grant Dixon-trained six-year-old who should make it win number 60 at start 77. Victory will see “Larry” take his career earnings above $5 million.

Menangle will see the Listed AD Turnbull FFA run over 1609m as Race 6. CAPTAINS KNOCK (4) is the $1.70 favourite as he battles the resuming SWAYZEE (2) to be driven by Will Rixon. It looks like a match race with all other runners in double figures. With race fitness on his side, I am siding with Captains Knock to make it a sixth straight win for trainer-driver Brad Hewitt.

 

by Trent Orwin for Harnesslink