Who’ll advance? Luke Humphreys’ Elitloppet verdict

The path to Elitloppet final will be paved with challenges and opportunities not just for Australia’s harness racing  entrant Just Believe (Orlando Vici) but all 16 entrants hopeful of securing their slice of squaregaiting immortality.

Luke Humphreys, who will journey to Stockholm to call Elitloppet for Sky Racing and TrotsVision, breaks down the two Elitloppet heats, searching for winners and qualifiers for Monday morning’s race of a lifetime.

Humphreys has also given a race-by-race punting guide (see the bottom of the page). Enjoy, and then be sure to tune in from Sunday night and cheer of Just Believe.

Race 6, 11:28pm AEST, Heat One

1: DON FANUCCI ZET (Sweden)
Driver: Örjan Kihlström
Trainer: Daniel Redén
The 2021 winner started odds-on in last year’s final but galloped at the start from this barrier. He finished sixth and fifth after leading both the Prix d’Amerique and Prix de France, then won in Sweden on April 20 and ran fifth in Finland’s feature race last start (May 7) as a 2.1 favourite. He was never in that race, but worked home well. He is in the series up to his ears from gate one assuming he doesn’t do what he did in the final last year.

2: ÖNAS PRINCE (Sweden)
Trainer/Driver: Per Nordström
Finished last season with a victory in Sweden, which followed a seventh in the European 5YO Championship at Vincennes in October. He is unbeaten from three starts this season, clocking a sensational time when winning two starts ago over 1640 metres and then recorded a soft all-the-way success in the Copenhagen Cup at Charlottenlund, Denmark, over 2011 metres on May 14. This is a much better field compared than that, but he is in the right form and will look to do better than last year when he was disqualified in the final.

3: STOLETHESHOW (Norway)
Driver: Dexter Dunn
Trainer: Frode Hamre
A Norwegian prepared eight-year-old to be driven by an American-based New Zealand-born driver. He was disqualified at Solvalla on April 19 prior to a feature race victory in Finland on May 7. That was a win and you’re in event for this series and it was a strong victory after sitting without cover.

4: ETONNANT (France)
Driver: Anthony Barrier
Trainer: Richard Westerink
French superstar who won this race last year convincingly after galloping at halfway, losing a good 10 to 15 metres but not enough to be disqualified. He wasn’t at his best during the winter in France and missed the Prix d’Amerique. However, he resumed with a soft victory on March 16 before a tough Group 2 win at Vincennes on April 8. He was then too good when winning a 2150-metre Group 1 at Enghien, the secondary French metropolitan track. He was only third in a Group 2 feature last start on May 13, the feature open age race of the season at Caen, however, wore shoes. At his best is the one to beat.

5: VERNISSAGE GRIF (Italy)
Trainer/Driver: Alessandro Gocciadoro
A very speedy horse like most prepared by Alessandro Gocciadoro. He was disqualified in both the Prix d’Amerique and Prix de France before recording a personal best when finishing third after leading in the 1609-metre Group 1 at Cagnes-Sur-Mer in the South of France. That put the writing on the wall before competing in the Italian equivalent of this series on May 1, which he won for the second successive year after winning both his heat and the final. A massive contender on his best form.

6: GO ON BOY (France)
Trainer/driver: Romain Derieux
A very interesting contender for Romain Derieux, who trained and drove Dijon to win the final in 2019. He was disqualified at big odds in the Prix de France before winning with the plugs still in at Vincennes on February 21 in a race two levels below black type racing. He was held up in the straight when fifth in the Cagnes-Sur-Mer Group 1 on March 12, but still recorded a personal best, prior to passing all bar Etonnant when second in the Enghien Group 1. An enthralling roughie.

7: JUST BELIEVE (Australia)
Driver: Greg Sugars
Trainer: Jess Tubbs
Australia’s number one trotter couldn’t have drawn much worse as he faces his biggest challenge. He has suffered defeats in three of his past five starts, but didn’t have much luck in each and cruised to success when winning the final of the Australian equivalent of this series. He recorded a personal best when second in Sydney last start and lost no admirers, but that is the slowest personal best out of the 16 horses competing in both heats. The positive is that he has been unlucky in the majority of his defeats since joining Larajay Farm, where 16 starts for the stable have yielded 10 brilliant victories, five second placings and a third. There is a case to be made that with even luck he perhaps should have won each of his last 15 starts. He looked very sharp in two Melton trials on April 26 and May 9, with the most recent of those a soft victory. It is hard to know how he will line up and according to the betting he won’t, but with his brilliant record over the last nine months it is impossible to say he won’t be competitive. He has proven to be good in his own backyard and we will now find out how good he really is. Australia will be hoping it is just as good as any down under trotter this century.

8: BROTHER BILL (Sweden)
Driver: Magnus A Djuse
Trainer: Timo Nurmos
Won a valuable race at Solvalla on September 24 before having Don Fanucci Zet behind him when winning the Swedish Championship at Group 2 level on October 8. One run this season yielded a narrow second to Hail Mary, the 2022 Elitloppet runner-up, at Solvalla on May 10 in a win and you’re in race, recording a personal best on that occasion.

Summary: (4) ETONNANT wasn’t at his best during the winter in France but came back to form with three victories in a row including a Vincennes Group 2 and an Enghien Group 1 in April. He was only third last start, but he raced with shoes and no doubt they will be removed for this series. (6) GO ON BOY is a great roughie chance as he comes into this race with very good recent form in France and trainer/driver Romain Derieux knows how to win the Elitloppet. (5) VERNISSAGE GRIF is a great chance and is another who comes into the series in tip-top condition, while (1) DON FANUCCI ZET was only fifth last start but the run was much better than the bare bones suggest. Whilst he is an obvious chance, odds-on seems unders in such a strong race, especially given what he did at the start of the final 12 months ago. (2) ÖNAS PRINCE and (3) STOLETHESHOW come into the series with brilliant Group 1 victories last start. (7) JUST BELIEVE gets his opportunity to show how good he really is and (8) BROTHER BILL was second in a trial race for this last start.
Selections: (4) ETONNANT – (6) GO ON BOY – (5) VERNISSAGE GRIF – (1) DON FANUCCI ZET

Race 7, 11:55pm AEST, Heat Two

1: BEST OFDREAM TRIO (Norway)
Driver: Kim Eriksson
Trainer: Erik Killingmo
Recorded two victories in a row in July before his form dropped off following a disqualification when fancied in a Group 1 in Sweden on August 27. He resumed at the picturesque Biri track in Norway on May 13 and was able to score, which should have put him on song for this big test.

2: ULTION FACE (Sweden)
Trainer/Driver: Adrian Kolgjini
He has been around the mark this season with one win, one second and two third placings from six starts. He was second in a Group 2 in Sweden five runs ago on February 18 and while eighth two starts back on April 22, he wasn’t beaten far after galloping with 800 metres to travel. He led up at a good tempo when third in a trial race at Solvalla on May 10 and was just run down late after looking the winner early in the straight. He recorded a personal best, so he does look to be in good form but could find a couple too good.

3: MISTER HERCULES (Sweden)
Driver: Santtu Raitala
Trainer: Daniel Redén
Two wins this season came in a feature race in Finland on April 22 over 2100 metres and a narrow victory last Saturday in the final lead-up for this series at Gävle. He had to sit parked in a fast run race on that occasion and recorded a personal best. In between those two victories he was disqualified in the Olympic Trot at Group 1 level on May 6. It was a great win last week and it should have put him spot on for this assignment.

4: HAIL MARY (Sweden)
Driver: Åke Svanstedt
Trainer: Daniel Redén
Finished second in both a heat and the final 12 months ago and looks a great chance of going one better should he qualify for the Elite Race. He was beaten at odds of 1.5 and 1.4 three and five runs back, the latter a 3140-metre mobile Group 1. However, he is unbeaten from two races this season, both over 1640 metres at Solvalla, on April 19 and May 10, with the most recent victory being in a lead-up race, where he stormed home from miles back on the turn and recorded a personal best.

5: HOHNECK (France)
Driver: Gabriele Gelormini
Trainer: Philippe Allaire
He had a solid winter in France without winning, finishing fifth in the Prix d’Amerique for the second consecutive year before a third in the 2100-metre Prix de France and sixth in the 4150-metre Grand Prix de Paris. He was third in the Enghien Group 1 on April 22 after leading for the first half of the race before taking a sit on Etonnant and finishing behind that horse and Go On Boy. He adopted similar tactics in the Caen Group 2 on May 13 but on that occasion was able to run away and defeat Etonnant convincingly. He is unbeaten from two runs over 1609 metres after two Group 2 wins in France in July 2022.

6: SAN MOTEUR (Sweden)
Trainer/Driver: Björn Goop
A Björn Goop prepared star who has won 17 from 22 starts, including five wins from six attempts last season and unbeaten from two starts this year. He was second in Norway’s feature race in June last year and that victory followed some very impressive victories in Sweden. However, his big run for last season came in a five-year-old Group 1 at Solvalla on August 17 when, after starting outside the second line, he went to the death and bolted up in a world record 1:09.7 kilometre rating, roughly a 1:52.0 mile rate, for a trotter over a middle distance. He is unbeaten from two starts this season and last start won the Group 1 Olympic Trot, one of the feature races for the season in Sweden, by a long way in a time of 1:10.8. The hype horse of the series.

7: VIVID WISE AS (Italy)
Driver: Matthieu Abrivard
Trainer: Alessandro Gocciadoro
A speed machine and has been for a number of seasons. He was disqualified in the Prix d’Amerique prior to a narrow second in the Prix de France. He came from a hopeless position to win the Group 1 Grand Critérium de Vitesse de la Côte d’Azur for the third time at Cagnes-Sur-Mer in France on March 12 before again coming from a terrible position to swoop and score in a Group 1 mile in Italy on April 10. He competed in the Italian equivalent of this series on May 1, finishing a good second in his heat before Matthieu Abrivard didn’t have his best moment in the final when electing to stay three deep the trip. The horse naturally yielded ground to only beat two home. He is drawn wide, which is a negative, and has won every sprint feature in Europe with the exception of the Elitloppet and the Gran Premio Lotteria, the Italian equivalent, which raises questions should he make the final over whether he’d handle two races in one day. However, he is a world-class horse on his day and is way over the odds for this particular race.

8: USAIN TÖLL (Italy)
Driver: Alexandre Abrivard
Trainer: Vitale Ciotola
A quality Italian horse who looked to have a Pink Ticket at his mercy at Gävle last week in the final lead-up race before galloping. He gets invited anyway and on his prior form is a value chance despite the draw. He won a heat of the Italian equivalent when left alone in front on May 1 before a fifth a couple of hours later in the final. He was a luckless third in a Vincennes Group 3 five starts back on March 25 before narrowly being denied by Etonnant atthat venue in a Group 2 on April 8. Alexandre Abrivard is back in the sulky, which is a plus, and considering he went off favourite last week he looks over the odds.

Summary: (6) SAN MOTEUR is the hype horse of the series and comes into this race unbeaten from two starts this season with his most recent victory by a space in a feature Swedish Group 1 at the start of this month. The world record holder over the middle distance can stamp his marker for the world’s greatest trotting sprint. (7) VIVID WISE AS had a gut buster in the final of the Italian equivalent last start but is way over the odds as his best form is as good as any horse in the series. (5) HOHNECK is a model of consistency and from that perspective it would be a surprise if he failed to qualify, while (4) HAIL MARY finished second in the final last season and is unbeaten from two runs this time in. (1) BEST OFDREAM TRIO draws well but might be outclassed. (2) ULTION FACE has had a busy year already and while running great in a trial race last start might find a few too good. (3) MISTER HERCULES should be close-up following a victory in the final lead-up race last week that was going to be won by (8) USAIN TÖLL before he galloped at the top of the straight.
Selections: (6) SAN MOTEUR – (7) VIVID WISE AS – (5) HOHNECK – (4) HAIL MARY

Luke Humphreys’ tips for Elitloppet Day 2023
(Note Sky/TAB will cover Race 2 to Race 12, Race 1 is a non-betting event outside of Sweden)

Race 2 – 3YO and older: (8) READY TONIGHT – (5) ROLL CONTROL – (2) RIO ALTA WINE – (1) IZOR SISU

Race 3 – G2 Montéeliten (Elitloppet for mounted horses): (8) VAPRIO – (3) DIMO D’OCCAGNES – (10) CHALIMAR DE GUEZ – (5) DIAMANT DE LARRÉ

Race 4 – 3YO fillies: (1) KITTY HAWK – (3) COUNTESS FACE – (2) ETERIA – (10) SIERRA S

Race 5 – Elitkampen (Elitloppet for cold bloods): (3)    TANGEN BORK – (2) EVARTTI – (10) PARVELAN RETU – (8) GRISLE ODIN GL

Race 6 – Elitloppet Heat One: (4) ETONNANT – (6) GO ON BOY – (5) VERNISSAGE GRIF – (1) DON FANUCCI ZET

Race 7 – Elitloppet Heat Two: (6) SAN MOTEUR – (7) VIVID WISE AS – (5) HOHNECK – (4) HAIL MARY

Race 8 – G1 3YO colts & geldings: (3) NOVATO – (5) DANIEL HAZELAAR – (4) CINCINNATI BEACH S – (6) YIN YANG

Race 9 – G2 4YO mares: (9) JOVIALITY – (6) JAZZY PERRINE – (4) DON’T SAY GAR – (7) O’MARA ZON

Race 10 – G2 4YO colts & geldings: (8) DOUBLE DECEIVER – (1) GIO CASH – (9) DENVER GIO – (10) FOLLOWING

Race 11 – Elitloppet Final (Subject to final field): SAN MOTEUR – ETONNANT – GO ON BOY – VERNISSAGE GRIF

Race 12 – Apprentice drivers: (4) KASH KEEPER – (10) APPASSO – (12) ATOMIC FACE – (8) CROWN WISE AS

BEST BET: R3 N8 Vaprio

by Luke Humphreys for Harness Racing Victoria