Can anyone upset Virtual Horizon in Western Canada Pacing Derby eliminations?

Harness racing action continues at Century Mile this weekend, and the Saturday card features the Western Canada Pacing Derby eliminations. Also, the two-year-old stakes that were cancelled last weekend were added to the card on Saturday.

RACE 8: WESTERN CANADA PACING DERBY FIRST ELIMINATION- $14,000

1. Tin Can Timmy (8-1)
2. The Dickens (6-1)
3. General Custard (4-1)
4. Jus Ched (12-1)
5. Handsome Dan (10-1)
6. Hf Pans Shadow (10-1)
7. Over The Horizon (2-1)
8. Matts Gem (5-2)

Over The Horizon (Vertical Horizon) opens as the morning line favourite at 2-1 odds. His performance, as of late, has undoubtedly earned those odds. He finished fifth place his last time out, but before that, he had an eight-race streak of finishing either first or second. Over The Horizon has earned over $100,000 in career earnings and has a lifetime mark of 1:53.2, which he achieved at Century Mile. His post position should cause no issue because he has proven to be able to come off the pace.

General Custard (Custard The Dragon) is another horse that often finishes near the top and will have a good chance at doing it again on Saturday. He’s visited the winner’s circle four times this year and has finished third or better all but twice this year. His last time out was one of those, and he finished fourth, but I think he can bounce back this weekend. He will get some post-relief as he comes from the third spot but will have a bunch of hungry horses coming at him from both sides.

The 2023 Manitoba Great Wester winner, Handsome Dan (State Treasure), hasn’t been racing much over the last month, but the time off has been kind to him. His previous win was in the Manitoba Great Western on Sep. 16 at the Loop, but he followed that up with a fourth-place finish in his debut at Century Mile. Now, he will be making his second consecutive start at the mile oval in northern Alberta, and he fits with the field better than the 10-1 morning line odds suggest. Handsome Dan has four wins this year to his name and has finished well in most of the Alberta or British Columbia stake races he has entered before this. He is my top choice to upset the field on Saturday.

My Picks: 7-3-5

RACE 9: WESTERN CANADA PACING DERBY SECOND ELIMINATION -$14,000

1. Staythirsty De Vie (12-1)
2. Catfish Jack (6-1)
3. Opulent Dragon (10-1)
4. Mickie Mantle (5-2)
5. Virtual Horizon (4-5)
6. One Major Hottie (8-1)
7. Blue Star Mercury (4-1)
8. Lumber Baron (10-1)

13 wins in 13 starts, do I really need to waste my time and say more? Virtual Horizon (Vertical Horizon) at 4-5 is the play.

Mickie Mantle (Custard The Dragon) returns to Alberta after a couple of starts at Fraser Downs in the B.C. Bred Stake series. He won the second leg after coming up just short in the first leg with a second-place finish. He put up a new lifetime mark of 1:52.1 his last time out, and it will be interesting to see how that can translate on the full-mile track this weekend. He has only raced on the five-eighths track at Fraser Downs or the eleven-sixteenths at Century Downs.

Blue Star Mercury (Mystician) has only won twice in his career, but he has back-to-back second place finished heading into this one. He finished just behind Virtual Horizon in his last start in the ABSS Plainsmen. He will look to duplicate that effort and make his way into the finals. 1:55.4 is his lifetime mark, but he has posted faster times in losing efforts.

My Picks: 5-4-7

RACE 2: ABSS STARBURST TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLIES (FIRST DIVISION) – $27,100 

1. Licklips Swinghips (10-1)
2. Im Outrageous Too (2-1)
3. Delta Sunrise (6-1)
4. Foothills Magic (4-1)
5. Cf Birdonawire (8-1)
6. Born A Spy (7-2)
7. Dragon Dancer (12-1)

Born A Spy (Smart Shark) has had a hot start to her racing career and will be looking to get her third win in only five starts. Her lifetime mark is 1:58.0, but she posted a 1:56.2 last week when she finished second place. That level of speed should be enough to get the job done on Saturday, but it won’t be easy. Born A Spy has shown that she can win, wire-to-wire or come off the pace, so she has a few different options on how to attack this race.

Jamie Gray will jump aboard Foothills Magic (Captive Audience) in pursuit of capturing the filly’s second career win. She won at Century Downs in August and paced the mile in 1:59.0. She was able to shave a few seconds off that mile time when she moved onto the bigger Track, but I doubt it will be enough to win. However, I think it’s worth having her included in multi-race bets.

My Picks: 6-4-2

RACE 3: ABSS STARBURST TWO-YEAR-OLD FILLIES (SECOND DIVISION) – $27,100 

1. Cf Faline (10-1)
2. Eyesoncustard (12-1)
3. Byby Baby Byby (7-2)
4. Saucy Posse (4-1)
5. Outlawguns N Roses (3-5)
6. Severe Turbulence (6-1)
7. Caughtstealinghome (8-1)

Taking the heavy morning line odd favourite, Outlawguns N Roses (Captive Audience), won’t help you get to an earlier retirement but sometimes you have to make the obvious choice. She has three wins in six starts and a lifetime mark of 1:53.2, which she achieved last week at Century Mile. It took her a couple of steps to find her form, but now she has won three of her previous four starts. Outlawguns N Roses likes the front end, but I’d be mindful of her current post position. Her wins have all come from inside post positions, and her lines indicate she hasn’t been able to win from the outside. This race kicks off the Century Mile Pick 5, and I am genuinely tempted to single her in my combination. My only hesitation stems from my concerns about the post position.

The one filly I am tempted to add to my Pick 5 ticket is Byby Baby Byby (Vertical Horizon). She has won back-to-back races heading into Saturday and has a chance to cause the upset on Outlawguns N Roses. However, Byby Baby Byby has yet to race much and has only made two starts over the last month. However, both of those starts were wins, and she paced them in 1:56.3 and 1:57.0. Those times are a bit slower than what Outlawguns N Roses is capable of, but they are better than anything the rest of the field has posted.

Saucey Posse (Custard The Dragon) got her first career win last week and will be making he Alberta Sired Stake debut. She paced the mile in 1:57.3 but has a limited resume, so it is hard to guess what will happen when she mixes in with the rest of the field. She will have the experienced Kelly Hoerdt in the bike, so she should be poised to finish near the top.

My Picks: 5-3-4

RACE 5: ABSS LONE STAR TWO-YEAR-OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS (FIRST DIVISION) -$27,100 

1. Sharkasaurus (7-2)
2. Vertical (10-1)
3. Come On Santana (4-5)
4. Matteuse (6-1)
5. Blueline Bruiser (12-1)
6. Hf Winknat Shadows (4-1)
7. Rememberthecustard (8-1)

Come On Santana (Santanna Blue Chip) is as hot as they come with his three-race win streak heading into this one. His lifetime mark of 1:55.4 came in his Century Casino Pace victory at Track On 2. He followed that up with a 1:58.0 in his first start at Century Mile. His starts are spread out, but that is an advantage for him, and he heads into this one with 14 days of rest. He should be primed and ready to go.

It has been some time since Sharkasaurus (Prince Sharka) has had a picture taken in the winner’s circle, but he did finish third place his last time out. He finished just behind Come On Santana and Tzilacatzin, who is in the second division. His only win was in the Norm Kennedy Memorial, and he paced that mile in 1:59.3. Drawing the rail will surely be a decent size advantage for him.

Rememberthecustard (Custard The Dragon) is coming off his first career win last week. He paced the mile in 1:59.2, which is on par with most of the field. I like this colt because it will add some value to my wagers. He definitely can sneak into the top three and give you a nice payday. He did win at 22-1 last weekend and could have similar odds at post-time on Saturday.

My Picks: 3-1-7

RACE 6: ABSS LONE STAR TWO-YEAR-OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS (SECOND DIVISION) – $27,100 

1. Hf Winknat Jenna (4-1)
2. Tzilacatzin (7-2)
3. Grey Horizon (4-5)
4. Cenalta Gunfire (12-1)
5. One More Rocky (6-1)
6. Nevada Dragon (10-1)
7. Shark Attack (8-1)

Don’t worry; your computer isn’t broken because I am actually taking Tzilacatzin (Captive Audience) to upset Grey Horizon. Tzilacatzin has yet to win in three starts, but he has two second-place finishes, and his last one was just behind Come On Santana. It was charted as a 1:58.3 mile, which is not far off what Grey Horizon has been doing lately. Wawanesa, Manitoba’s finest, Chris Brown, will also be in the bike, which makes this a slam dunk pick for me.

I will include Grey Horizon (Vertical Horizon) on all my multi-race wagers as a safety net, but he will be my second choice in this race. He has four wins in five starts and never finished worse than second place in that time. His lifetime mark is 1:57.0, and he paced his first victory at Century Mile in 1:58.1.

Hf Winknat Jenna (Wink N Atcha) starts on the rail, which will be his opportunity to get into a good spot for the race. After looking at his lines, you will notice that he doesn’t do well coming off the pace and the one time he took the early lead. Hf Winknat Jenna ended up in second place, losing by a neck to Grey Horizon. He will for sure be in the mix on Saturday.

My Picks: 2-3-1

Century Mile’s Saturday card kicks off at 5:15 p.m. MDT.

For complete race entries, click here.

by Trey Colbeck, for Harnesslink