Century Mile Pick 5 analysis and mandatory payout

We have New Year’s Eve harness racing at Century Mile tonight (Dec. 31), and it comes with a great wagering opportunity. The 20-cent Pick 5, which starts in race 9 and ends with the final race of the card, the 13th, features a carryover of more than $24,000 and a mandatory payout.

The sequence is comprised of a quintet of 10-horse fields, and it’s important to remember that the #9 and #10 horse in each race starts from the trailer position.

Let’s take a look at the sequence and construct what will hopefully be a winning ticket.

Race 9:

(2) PONGO has won two straight at this class level and he projects to get another pocket trip following (3) MR DILLON, who comes off a win at this level and always wants to race in front. These two are must-uses for me. The third horse I think is capable of winning this opening leg is (7) LIGHT MY SHADOW, who shipped in from Fraser Downs and got hung the mile as the 4 to 5 favorite on 12/23. If driver Kelly Hoerdt can find the Shadow Play gelding a better trip, he could pass both of the top two choices late.

Race 10:

This race will likely come down to two rivals that finished 1-2 last time and were only a head apart at the wire, (3) RETROS MYSTERY, and (6) CAME A CAVALIER, and it’s hard to not use both. The third one that I would consider using is (5) SHOW STOP, who was beating better in November and comes off a failed first-over effort as the chalk. I could see him registering an upset tonight if driver Dave Kelly finds a live helmet to follow.

Race 11:

This is a very tough edition of the Preferred 2 with superstar Shark Week not in the field. I could see using an “all” if your bankroll allows for it. I will concentrate mostly on the ones that recently finished closest to Shark Week, starting with (10) BONUS ROUND. He is the second trailer in this field, starting behind the #2 horse, but I can see him following cover and getting up late in this mile at a price. (8) SAMBA BEAT got away from Shark Week in his most recent start and he was an impressive winner, pacing a :27.2 kicker to drive away from his rivals. He’s hard to leave out. (7) ERNESTO DELACRUZ

 will likely get more aggressive at the start with no Shark Week to fear and he is a threat to lead all the way. If (5) ICEY BLUE SCOOTER gets the same pocket trip here that he got following Shark Week on 12/20, he could pull an upset. He is worth a look for this Pick 5. (6) NO COLLUSION might be the best horse in this race, but he goes from a driver that has won 293 races this year to one that has 15 wins lifetime. He’s not impossible, but I tend to lean against him.

Race 12:

(1) MY LITTLE CHLOE has been racing well and finishing fast and she is the most likely winner of this leg starting from the inside. (6) SHORT SELL HANOVER, winner of two of her last three at this level is another that is in solid form that is hard to leave off the ticket. (8) TINA LA VIDA’s sharp early speed should put her in contention leaving the gate and that makes her a contender that is worth using at what should be a decent price.

Race 13:

(7) CAPTAIN FIREBALL is right there every week and he just paced a :27.2 kicker, so you know he’s sharp. (4) WHIPLASH SMILE drops and he paced a sub-1:52 mile here in November when facing better. He is a threat to lead all the way at this level. The other one that merits a close look is (6) BLUS STAR MERCURY, who switched tactics in his most recent start and was rewarded with a come-from-behind win.

My tickets:

237/36/567810/168/467 = $54

237/5/7810/168/467 = $16.20

Good Luck with your plays and Happy New Year!

by Garnet Barnsdale, for Harnesslink