Latest NZ breeding numbers paint familiar picture: Urgent action required!

With the 2023 New Zealand breeding season in the rear view, the stallion services report provides a unique opportunity to analyse current trends in the harness racing sector and also review whether any progress has been made in the declining number of mares bred.

While it is not a problem that is unique to the New Zealand harness racing industry, the prior season offered a glimmer of hope with a slight increase in the number of mares served suggesting some stabilisation was at foot.

Furthermore, Harness Racing New Zealand announced a $1million+ incentive scheme with breeders being offered a stallion service fee credit of up to $1000 for any mare that produced a microchipped foal, so long as the breeder rebreeds the same mare or another mare in its place and obtained a 42-day positive pregnancy test.

With the global economy trending towards a recession with rising inflation and interest rates as well as the reduction in funding to the codes from the NZ TAB and ultimately, race stakes, it was always going to be a tough ask to expect any breeding incentive of its size and scope to make a meaningful impact.

The final numbers are still preliminary but with a handful of stallion services yet to be lodged, the current number sits at 1857 individual mares served, down from 2052 individual mares served in 2022. We can expect this number to creep closer and possibly beyond the 1900+ mark, which would be a decline of around 7-8%.

This would mark the first time the number of mares served has sat below 2000 since the 1960’s and with it some negative implications for our future racing population with the percentage of live foals being produced from the number of mares served flailing due to the increase in frozen semen serves and imported semen from Australia. The decline in New Zealand domiciled stallions is not solely to blame with environmental factors such as the climate also playing a part, as well as the health of the broodmare herself.

The concerning number in the table above, aside from the obvious decline in mares bred, is the number of branded/live foals. That number should be known by the end of the month with the final day for registrations of this season’s foal being the 1st of April, but its implications on the ability to conduct the required number of future racing meetings to meet KPI’s is enormous.

Improving the number of foals produced for mares served needs to be one of the priorities going forward. For every 1% it can be improved as incremental as it sounds, we can produce roughly an extra 20 live foals a year. We can’t afford to have paying customers ie breeders forking out thousands of dollars with the intention of producing a foal and over 30% of them not getting product at the other end.

While the branded/chipped foal percentage can be improved by education around animal husbandry, it can also be improved at the other end with more information recorded and provided around things like stallion fertility. There was a situation a few years ago with a high-profile shuttle stallion firing more or less blanks and the stud in which he stood more or less buried their heads in the sand and failed to properly communicate any issues. You wouldn’t accept or tolerate such blatant negligence as a consumer from other industries so why should breeders be treated with such contempt when they are the front-line investors of the sport?

How we record fertility was not something I thoroughly investigated in my time in the breeding sector, so I don’t confess to have the answers as to how it could or should be done.

Especially when the current system of lodging stallion/mare services is an honesty system that actually has no incentive for recording accurate information.

Every lodging of a mare return by a stallion owner costs $$. So what incentive is there for a mare that has missed for the stud or stallion owner to then spend money to effectively lower the fertility rate of the sire in question?  Could the breeder being the party that lodges a mare return be a better system for getting the most accurate outcomes?

You will also note on the table above that the number of pacing mares served by NZ domiciled stallions has dropped drastically to well below 50%. With the Cobbity Equine based McWicked, King Of Swing and Capt Midnight three of the missing stallions from the current lodgments, that number could well dip below 40%.

Regardless of what we are being told about the speed of transit coming from across the ditch, it’s a well-known fact that the motility of semen is higher the faster it arrives and is introduced to the mare.  Same day semen is better than 48 hours old semen. The state sponsored breeding initiatives across the ditch that have seen stallions leave these shores in their droves and it is hurting our breeding sector whether anyone wants to admit it or not.

The studs aren’t to blame for taking advantage of the economics, they are ultimately a commercial entity after all. We can consider ourselves fortunate that Woodlands Stud have bucked the trend and supported NZ breeders given the likes of Sweet Lou and Downbytheseaside would no doubt increase their commercial appeal being Vic or Qbred eligible and likely serve no less mares in New Zealand.

I don’t see any way around this, however. We have been fortunate to some degree that for the last couple of decades, world class shuttle stallions have made it down under and dramatically improved the breed as a consequence. Even that is at risk long term, with the increased cost of travel and shrinking mare population making the economics of the exercise a virtuous task for any stallion not picking up at least 100 mares.

The bottom line is the only thing that can feasibly move the needle for both incentivising stallions to stand here and breeders to support them is investment and increased opportunity/stakemoney. The unfortunate reality is there isn’t a lot of spare cash to throw around at the moment with stakes already being reduced and HRNZ cutting down their own operating expenses by half a million dollars.

Most states that are perceived to be thriving whether it be in Australia or North America are doing so on the back of economic development type funding from the local government on the back of being able to showcase what their contribution is to the local economy.

Recently I was fortunate enough to spend time with the team at the Ohio Harness Horsemans Association and they provided me with a document whereby they had realised significant investment having jointly conducted an ‘economic impact’ study utilising the talent at Ohio State University. Granted they are an ‘agricultural’ state, but that sort of funding doesn’t just fall in your lap, you have to go out and show you deserve it.

Knowing that racing contributes just as much to the GDP of New Zealand as the fishing industry, it’s hard to believe the ‘size and scope’ reviews conducted by NZ TAB and formerly the NZ Racing Board have yielded nothing from our own government.

It has to be more thoroughly investigated because I don’t believe outsourcing the TAB is the silver bullet and answer to our prayers and it’s not acceptable to throw our hands in the air and say we have tried. When was the last time we tried to pitch our case to the Racing Minister? I don’t believe we have done so with the current government but again I stand to be corrected.

The fact we have only reduced our breeding stock by around 100-150 mares with any luck should be seen as a miracle given the current state of the economy and its impact on our industry. We can’t be content with treading water however because we have a demographic in age that is not getting any younger.

Something like 93% of breeders are older than 40 and while I was regularly told that they are the ones with the disposable income to get involved in breeding, there isn’t a lot happening to inspire the next generation when we have numerous examples of breeding empires shutting up shop when they pass or give up because the generation below them have no interest in the sport.

There will be those who are critical of the breeding incentive that was unveiled, but I challenge anyone to come up with a scheme worth a million dollars that is going to sustainably attract more long-term investors in the form of breeders.

Whip out a calculator and see how far a million dollars goes for the winners of the 700 odd maiden races run and won! Regardless of what was rolled out, certain factions of the breeding industry were going to moan that it wouldn’t encourage them to breed another horse because it didn’t directly target or impact their own situation.

My personal belief is that the breeding incentive likely did little to actively incentivise more mares being bred, simply due to the financial constraints of the funding made available and the amount being distributed back to breeders. I stand to be corrected on that and it will be great to see some data showing how many breeders increased their numbers from last year to take advantage of the additional credits made available had they done so.

It would be a better sentiment to suggest that the breeders we are still fortunate enough to have left are a bunch of hardy zealots who love the sport and would be happy to simply recoup some of their investment to reinvest and go again in pursuit of the elusive champion.

HRNZ have done well to concede there is an issue, and at the very least attempt to invest in the sector, but I implore them to continue to be proactive and find ways to increase the spend given it is (or was) a $42,000,000 dollar business that relies on horses being produced for the wagering product that funds the sport. Relying on utilisation is treating the symptom but not the cause.

Put it this way. It would be damn hard for a bakery to keep making and selling pies if it didn’t invest in the pastry that held them together.

by Brad Reid, for Harnesslink