Breeders take note to keep on breeding!

With confirmation that the North American shuttle stallions will be leaving Australasia for North America on the 12th of February, those looking to produce a foal in 2024/25 should note there is still at least another 4-5 weeks left in the Southern Hemisphere breeding season.

The news gives down under breeders who have been affected by the tumultuous weather patterns the opportunity to persevere with trying to get their mares in foal deep into the first month of the calendar year with most major studs expected to be collecting semen right up until the end of January.

As we should all know by now, On May 27th, 2021, a Special General Meeting of all clubs and kindred bodies of Harness Racing New Zealand unanimously approved the decision to change a standardbred horse’s birthday from August 1st to January 1st each year.

This fell in line with Harness Racing Australia which decided to change their racing season to the calendar year, and consequently, the birthdates changed with it.

As all horses now turn a year older on 1 January each year, the additional 4 months provided for due to the racing year change was hoped to benefit the education, training and confidence of young horses preparing for their racing careers.

With only three (Australia) and two seasons (New Zealand) under the new framework, it’s hard to make a call either way on whether the desired outcomes have or are being achieved.

With the horses having theoretically more time to develop, it was hoped the breeding sector would face less pressure at the back end of the season with more scope to breed later in the season without facing the perceived disadvantages.

While it is undeniable the earlier foals from a yearling sales perspective are further along in their development, the data in regards to foal date vs race performance in my personal view is unreliable.

The number of foals born in December/January down under, the equivalent of May/June in the Northern Hemisphere has been significantly less than those born in the prior months for obvious reasons. Therefore the data is always going to be in favour of the earlier foals for race performance because the volume of numbers is heavily tipped in their favour.

In the famous words of Mark Twain when it comes to data: “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.”

As we all know, there are exceptions to every rule, but here is a list of recent (and a few historic) Australian and New Zealand Age Group/Horse of the Year’s who were born had they been conceived on, or close to today’s date. You sure wouldn’t mind owning any of them!

New Zealand

Australia

Both the highest earning two-year-old pacers in New Zealand for 2023 were late born foals with Cold Chisel (12-Dec) and Coastal Babe (24-Nov) showing their later start at life was no barrier to early precocity.

Superstar filly, Millwood Nike (18-Nov) and New Zealand Oaks winner Aardiebytheseaside (24-Nov) were another pair who have been fantastic this season in the three-year-old fillies ranks in New Zealand.

In North America, the sires of three of the last five Horses of the Year — McArdle (McWicked, 2018), Art Major (Test Of Faith, 2021) and Shadow Play (Bulldog Hanover, 2022) — were June foals!

There have been 46 editions of the Meadowlands Pace and the fastest one belongs to a June foal, He’s Watching, 1:46.4 in 2014.

There isn’t any data readily available to show whether the extended season has resulted in more mares being bred late in the season, therefore making it hard to establish whether we can expect to see more December and January foals winning classics races in the classics to be run in the future.

One thing that is for certain is the weather at this time of year is more conducive for mares cycling, and breeders across Australasia hoping to access some of the best international genetics will be able to do so for another 4-5 weeks at the very least and achieve the very much desired outcome of producing a foal.

One thing money cant buy is time. Don’t waste it and leave your mare empty on the misguided notion that waiting another year will improve your chances of producing a classics horse!

by Brad Reid, for Harnesslink