New South Wales Derby looks two horse race

We continue our previews of harness racings big day at Menangle Inter Dominion day on Sunday and this time the focus is on the three year olds in the New South Wales Derby. 

New South Wales Derby

1) Hug The Wind – Starts 12 – Wins 5 – Seconds 5 – Thirds 1  –  Stakes $202,234

One real classy three year old who has the draw to dominate this race.

Won his heat from the death seat in what was his first run for seven weeks so natural improvement makes him very hard to beat.

Has real gate speed as he showed at Auckland on New Year's eve and the all round game to take advantage of his draw.

Natalie is driving in super touch at the moment so this combination looks terribly hard to beat.

2) Kilcullen – Starts 10 – Wins 4 – Seconds 1 – Thirds 0  –  Stakes $48,173

Kilcullen has been disappointing in the main when lined up against the better three year olds.

Kilcullen was poor in his heat of the Victorian Derby from barrier two and although he death seated for the last round in his Derby heat last Saturday, the first three got away on him the last bit.

Doesn't look to get off the gate at all in his races so two draw is not a big positive

Not for us.

3) Art Union – Starts 21 – Wins 12 – Seconds 5 – Thirds 1  –  Stakes $130,555

Was a touch down on his best in his heat last week in our opinion.

At his best he would have won that heat from in front but was under pressure a fair way out.

Does have an all round game and great trainer/driver combination in his corner so can turn it around.

Hard to see him beating Hug The Wind but big chance to run the quinella and a must have for trifecta and first four takers.

4) Burnaholeinmypocket – Starts 9 – Wins 4 – Seconds 1 – Thirds 1  –  Stakes $29,252 (2nd Emerg)

He had only had one run this season leading into his heat last Saturday night and he didn't do himself any favours by over racing badly through the first 800 metres.

Never left the inner in getting home well for sixth in a fast run last quarter and hard to see how he could improve enough to be a player in this even if he made it back into the field from the ballot.

Not for us.

5) Sluggem – Starts 6 – Wins 2 – Seconds 1 – Thirds  –  Stakes $15,898

Very inexperienced horse but does have a big future.

Settled last in his heat and made ground stylishly late in the piece.

Formerly with the All Star barn in New Zealand and showed plenty of ticker when winning for them at Auckland at Xmas time.

Hasn't got the all round game yet to challenge a few here but will be running on.

Outside first four player for us.

6) Lets Cut Loose – Starts 11 – Wins 2 – Seconds 4 – Thirds 2  –  Stakes $18,854

He had nine starts in New Zealand before coming to Australia and none of them were in top three year old company which raises questions for us.

He had the run of the race last week on Hug The Wind's back but couldn't stay with him in the straight after drawing barrier one which doesn't instill confidence either.

Harder draw and field this week in the Derby means we struggle to see him as a major player.

Not for us

7) Corporal Luna – Starts 15 – Wins 6 – Seconds 1 – Thirds 2  –  Stakes $34,582

Built up a strong record in Queensland but was only ok in his Derby heat last Saturday night at Menangle.

Didn't take advantage of his barrier draw of two and ended up four back on the inner and even though he ran home well in a quick last quarter, he was still a fair way from the winner.

Stronger field and worst draw makes it mission impossible in our view.

Not for us

8) Sporty Spook – Starts 17 – Wins 9 – Seconds 4 – Thirds 2  –  Stakes $83,050

Showed blinding gate speed to lead from barrier nine last week but did badly check a horse coming across which the driver copped three weeks for.

Fought on well when clear so plenty of merit in the run for us.

Plenty of gate speed inside him in the Derby so not sure same strategy of burning the gate will work this week.

First four chance if driven a bit more conservatively this week in our view.

9) Padrisimo – Starts 10 – Wins 6 – Seconds 2 – Thirds 0  –  Stakes $75,505

High class colt who has not had the ideal preparation for a gruelling 2400 metres.

His run in the heats last Saturday night was his first for nine weeks and only his third in eleven months which makes it very hard to see him being a major player here.

Should have improved bigtime with the run but too many questions remain in our view.

Not for us

10) Ideal For Real – Starts 9 – Wins 4 – Seconds 1 – Thirds 2  –  Stakes $52,185

Not the draw his connections would have been hoping for.

Does pocess blinding speed if held up for one run as he showed in his Derby heat last Saturday night and in his heat of the Victorian Derby before that.

Gavin Lang is just the man to get this American bred colt the run he needs but he is going to need Hug The Wind to have a run from hell to get him home over the top of that horse from barrier nine in our opinion.

A winning chance and a must for quinella, trifecta and first four takers. 

11) Aztec Bromac – Starts 8 – Wins 4 – Seconds 1 – Thirds 1  –  Stakes

If this horse had drawn better he would be a huge trifecta and first four player.

Won his Victoria Derby heat beating Ideal For Real before being flattened in the final.

Pushed Hug The Wind for a long way in his heat and was well clear of the pack in second.

Draw makes it hard but we have a lot of time for this horse.

Definite trifecta and first four player even from the draw.

12) Spare Me Days – Starts 14 – Wins 6 – Seconds 0 – Thirds 5  –  Stakes $98,940 (1st Emerg)

Picked a bad time in his Derby heat to run off on the last bend costing himself a couple of lengths which cost him his starting spot in the Derby.

From the draw and on last weeks run, he would be up against it in our opinion if he did make it back into the field.

Has a great overall record but not for us in this field 

Selections

Hard to go past Hug The Wind in one for us

The danger is undoubtedly Ideal For Real

This two look a wee bit better than the rest of the field on last weeks runs.

The horses to make up the trifectas and first fours are Art Union, Sluggem, Sporty Spook and Aztec Bromac

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