Harness Analyst – Jewels Special

Welcome to todays segment from our harness racing analyst who provides you with free expert tips and selections for harness meetings run in New Zealand.

Harness Jewels hits Cambridge today with a nine race program starting at 12:17pm and we detail the individual races on a great premier day of racing.

All races are run over 1609m (1 Mile) for stakes of $100,000

Race 1

WOODLANDS STUD 4YO DIAMOND (MOBILE PACE) (Gr1) 

# Form   Name          Driver                     Comment
1 148353 Pearl Harbour (Nathan Williamson) Has the draw to be in a potent spot turning for home. Good top three chance
2 120261 Sarandon (Zachary Butcher) Races well on the track but not sure she can foot it with some of these. Outside chance at best
3 648487 Mimi E Coco (Benjamin Butcher) At her best she would be hard to beat. Would neeed to lead to be any chance
4 801101 Dalness First (Tim Williams) Racing well in lower grades but up against it here. Not liked today
5 575484 Tas Girl Bromac (Blair Orange) Top driver booked and has a bit of speed. Could be a first four chance
6 432662 Need You Now (John Dunn) Will look to push forward early and hard to beat in front. Can trouble the favourite
7 817752 Down The Hatch (David Butcher) Tricky draw and likely to go back early or gets caught wide. Outside place chance 
8 805803 Le Pole Dancer (Peter Davis) Big jump in class and terrible draw. Not liked in this field.
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 132431 Amazing Dream (Natalie Rasmussen) Best horse in the field but draw makes it interesting. Wins for fun if she gets clear running.
10 166572 Classey Robin (Gavin Smith) Drawn ok and could be an upset place chance if she gets a cosy run but can't see her winning.
11 227250 Pay Me Speedy Scratched
12 114176 Plutonium Lady (Samantha Ottley) One of the better mares in the field but drawn to follow out the likely leader. Can place.
13 4262 Rocknroll Mama (Robbie Close) Not a great draw and will need luck to get into the race. Not liked

Selections:
Amazing Dream(9)  Need You Know(6)  Pearl Harbour(1)  Plutonium Lady(12)

Race 2

MONTANA FOOD & EVENTS 2YO RUBY (MOBILE TROT) (Gr1) 
# Form    Name    Driver                  Comment
1 21D Ahwel Scratched
2 1D73 Mr Love (Ben Hope)(J) Better run last start and looks to be improving. Good place claims here
3 46916 Kowhai Sunset (Mark Jones) Ok draw but has been well beaten by some of these in the past. Risky
4 D121 Mystic Max (Blair Orange) Drawn inside the favourite and looks hard to beat from there. Needed
5 4213D5 Quik Barbie (Matthew White) Has been doing things wrong but plenty of speed. Place hope if she gets it right.
6 5154 Voronov (Luk Chin) Gets in via the scratching but looks outclassed here. Not liked
7 114110 Highgrove (John Dunn) Speed to burn but can be prone to breaking behind the mobile. Goes close with manners
8 11 Double Delight (Tony Herlihy) Unbeaten but biggest test to date and tricky draw. Definite place claims here.
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 33227 American Muscle (Michelle Wallis) Should get a cosy run from the draw and is a top four player from there.
10 22335 Ellaria Sand (Natalie Rasmussen) Looked good early on but last run only fair. Can place if back to her best.
11 2180 Emma Joy (Megan Teaz) Has been well beaten the last few runs. Not liked.
12 21632 Faith In Manchester (Todd Mitchell) Racing ok but terrible draw. Could run top four with luck in the running
13 312743 King City (Maurice McKendry) Will need a ton of luck from the draw but racing ok. Outside place hope here

Selections:
Mystic Max(4)    Highgrove(7)     Ellaria Sand(10)    Mr Love(2)

Race 3

DUNSTAN HORSEFEEDS 3YO DIAMOND (MOBILE PACE) (Gr1) 
# Form    Name        Driver              Comment
1 491226 Off N Gone (Tim Williams) Likely to get a good run in the trail behind La Rosa. Can run top three here.
2 924413 Shes No Lady (Zachary Butcher) Racing well but some here a bit faster. Outside place chance from the good draw.
3 512152 La Rosa (Samantha Ottley) Looks the early leader and short distance plays into her hands. Can beat the favourite.
4 25133 Sweet Belle (Gerard O'Reilly) In good form and could get some cover behind the favourite. Include in exotic bets.
5 211214 Commander Cathy (John Dunn) Big jump up in class here and might be up against it from the draw.
6 364316 Santa Maria Scratched
7 407151 Cloudy Bay (David Butcher) Tricky draw and some here are too fast for her. Not liked
8 112111 Bettor Twist (Natalie Rasmussen) Best filly but tricky draw. Will need to do some work mid race but can still win
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 545692 Ruby Mach (Craig Thornley) Drawn to follow the speed and can run top four if the pace is on all the way
10 211120 The Honey Queen (Joshua Dickie) Has the speed and drawn ok. Will be running on but hard to see her winning
11 413327 Darling Me (Benjamin Butcher) Has been unlucky in her races and a bad draw here. First four chance
12 112267 Lifes A Beach (John Morrison)(J) Good stayer but drawn badly here. Will be running on but up against it.
13 153744 Braeview Kelly (Blair Orange) Racing ok but draw makes it hard for her to get into the race. Outsider

Selections: 
La Rosa(3) Off N Gone(1) Bettor Twist(8) Darling Me(11)

Race 4

HARDWOOD BREEDING SYNDICATE 2YO DIAMOND (MOBILE PACE) (Gr1) 
# Form    Name          Driver               Comment
1 267083 Miki Montana (Scott Phelan) Should get a good run from the draw. Place chances look best
2 413643 A Bettor You (Mark Purdon) Racing well and from a top stable. Looks a good top four chance
3 21112 True Fantasy (Natalie Rasmussen) Has been the best filly so far and best draw in a while. Hard to beat
4 219235 Montana Glory (Zachary Butcher) Racing ok but drawn outside her toughest rival. Include for exotics
5 272121 Suntan (Joshua Dickie) Has grown a leg since coming north. Should go well again here.
6 233312 Anna Love Scratched
7 419974 Chevrons Bypass (Blair Orange) Racing only fair and drawn outside the good ones. Not liked
8 6581 Emmy (Jonny Cox) Drawn badly and will need to go back early. Hard to see getting into the race
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 223373 Dance Till Dawn (John Dunn) Fence draw but will have plenty of horseflesh infront of her. Outside chance at best
10 14176 Play Philly (Robbie Close) Drawn ok but not racing well enough. Not liked
11 245 I'llavabubbles (Dylan Ferguson) Balloted and needs a scratching to get into the race. Not liked
12 513452 Mr Kaplan (Tony Herlihy) Racing well and from a top stable. Could be a blowout first four chance
13 83P602 Kaching Kaching (Todd Macfarlane) Badly drawn and will need a lot of luck to figure. Not liked

Selections: 
True Fantasy(3) A Bettor You(2) Miki Montana(1) Dance Till Dawn(9)

Race 5

MITRE 10 3YO RUBY (MOBILE TROT) (Gr1) 
# Form    Name        Driver                   Comment
1 215242 Salvo (Tim Williams) Drawn to follow the speed and has realistic top four chance with a trail in the race
2 X36412 Regal Attire (Natalie Rasmussen) Good race last start and looks like the early leader. Needed
3 761115 Outamyway (Blair Orange) Trainer sounds confident and drawn well with top driver on. Can upset the favourite
4 542313 Mufasa Metro (Todd Mitchell) Racing well but some here look a little better. Outside place chance
5 X24293 Leaf Stride (Brad Williamson) Decent run last start but might struggle to cross to the lead. Can place if he leads
6 424211 Time Up The Hill (Ken Barron) Top filly drawn wide. Can place if she gets handy early
7 111111 Five Wise Men (John Dunn) Looks the winner on past performances with the draw the only stopper. 
8 313734 Jasinova (Luk Chin) Terrible draw and hard to see her figuring. Not liked
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 323536 Son Of Patrick (Scott Phelan) Loves the track but tricky draw. Top four chance at best.
10 186515 Gaz Man (Dylan Ferguson) Has some speed but will need to stay handy to feature in placings. 
11 851018 Maui (David McCormick) Goes well over shorter distances but drawn badly and will struggle here.
12 3169X1 Paramount Princess Scratched
13 X23082 Mexicana (Joshua Dickie) Terrible draw and going to be a big ask to get near the leaders. Not for us

Selections: 
Five Wise Men(7) Regal Attire(2) Salvo(1) Outamyway(3)

Race 6

McMILLAN EQUINE FEEDS 2YO EMERALD (MOBILE PACE) (Gr1) 
Book Form Name Driver Comment
1 87X6 Sugar Apple (Andrew Drake)(J) Draw suits but massive rise in class. Outside top four chance at best
2 13516 My Ultimate Chevron (Gavin Smith) Racing ok but hard to see him winning. Include in exotics
3 13575 Franco Mac (Jonny Cox) Third stringer for the powerful Cullen barn. First four chance
4 864134 Major Perry (Scott Phelan) Racing well but a placing seems his best chance here
5 1211 Akuta (Mark Purdon) Classy pacer who should be leading and winning this. Pick six anchor!
6 12122 Cosmic Major (Natalie Rasmussen) Racing well but hard to see him turning the tables on the favourite. Can place
7 355418 Mr Ibiza (Blair Orange) Draw not great and hard to see him in the placings. Not liked
8 34747 Mercury Rising (James Stormont) Up in class and drawn badly. Not for us
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 411363 Montana D J (Zachary Butcher) Racing well but drawn behind a horse who will struggle. Will need luck
10 61776 Arden's Horizon (David Butcher) Not a great draw and will struggle to get into the race. Not liked
11 31 You're So Fine (Nathan Williamson) Big win in quick time last start but draw makes it tough. Place chance
12 712257 Classy Operator (Dylan Ferguson) Races best when handy and will not get that here. Not liked

Selections: 
Akuta(5) Cosmic Major(6) You're So Fine(11) Franco Mac(3)

Race 7

IRT 3YO EMERALD (MOBILE PACE) (Gr1) 
Book Form Name Driver Comment
1 823241 B D Joe (Benjamin Butcher) Quick beginner whose best option is to trail. Can win if he does
2 114012 Pace N Pride (Tony Herlihy) Good draw and has the power to match it with this field. Place hope at long odds
3 311911 Alta Wiseguy (Tim Williams) Races well on the track and good trial win. Upset chance if he leads
4 294282 Yorokobi Scratched
5 555255 Raven Banner (Zachary Butcher) Struggles against this type of field and shorter distance a worry. Not liked
6 913612 The Falcon (Gerard O'Reilly) Racing well but up against it here. Not for us
7 221141 Shan Noble (Mark Purdon) From a powerful stable but drawn out wide. Needs to go forward to have any chance
8 697235 Got You Covered (John Dunn) Terrible draw puts him in a bad spot early. Not liked
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 211112 Krug (Blair Orange) Draw makes it interesting. If he gets some space he will be hardest to beat.
10 332044 American Dealer (David Butcher) Has been average lately but much better than that. Can place at good odds
11 220011 Ragazzo Mach (Nathan Williamson) Big motor but bad draw. If he can get handy he could lob into a place
12 214111 Samhara (Natalie Rasmussen) Biggest test to date and drawn badly. Top four chance here
13 121441 Hot And Treacherous (Maurice McKendry) Terrible draw and will need luck to figure. Hard to see him in the placings

Selections: 
American Dealer(10) Alta Wiseguy(3) Krug (9) Pace N Pride(2)

Race 8

GARRARD'S HORSE & HOUND 4YO RUBY (MOBILE TROT) (Gr1)
Book Form Name Driver Comment 
1 X31621 American Pride (Natalie Rasmussen) Great draw and he can run a place in this field. Needed
2 X52735 Kelvinz Luck (James Stormont) Big jump in class and not really liked in this field
3 664556 Rain Mist And Muscle (Todd Mitchell) Drawn ok but others here look better. Leaving today
4 227214 Liaison (David Butcher) Racing well but up against some top trotters. Not liked
5 116412 Midnight Dash (Tim Williams) Racing well and sprint trip suits. Can run in the money here at nice odds.
6 462051 Kiwitrix (Nathan Williamson) Easy win last start but an outside top four chance looks his lot in this field
7 3X1211 Muscle Mountain (Ben Hope)(J) Has been exceptional lately and showed gate speed last start. Hard to beat
8 P25147 One Majic Kenny (John Dunn) Draw not great and others better. Leaving today
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 630465 Majestic Harry (Megan Teaz) Will get a fence run but hard to see him figuring here. Not liked
10 23223 The Big Bird (Joshua Dickie) Gets in the field via a scratching but might struggle. Outside first four hope at best
11 213221 Bolt For Brilliance (Tony Herlihy) Big run last start and should be in the first three here. Can win
12 831832 Andoverlov (Samantha Ottley) In good form but some here are better. Outside chance at placing
13 0X91P1 Ultimate Stride  Scratched

Selections: 
Muscle Mountain(7) Bolt For Brilliance(11) American Pride(1) Midnight Dash(5)

Race 9

CIVTEC 4YO EMERALD (MOBILE PACE) (Gr1) 
Book Form Name Driver Comment
1 319975 New York Minute (Alicia Harrison)(J) Home track advantage and could be a top four chance at long odds from the draw
2 233771 Kango (David Butcher) Long striding pacer who is a player if he can find the front. Wining claims
3 219X36 Tommy Lincoln (Blair Orange) Gate speed his forte and top driver booked. Will make it interesting early
4 554345 Steel The Show (John Dunn) Racing ok but draw a concern with speed inside. Top four chance looks best
5 211224 Bad To The Bone (Zachary Butcher) Good stayer who will appreciate the pace on here. Can place
6 222241 Italian Lad (Mark Purdon) Tricky draw and will need to go forward early to have any chance. Place hope
7 X58511 South Coast Arden (Natalie Rasmussen) Has grown a leg recently but draw a concern. Can upset if he can get handy early
8 231583 Christianshavtime (Tony Herlihy) Speedy but drawn too wide here. Others look better chances
---------------------------- Second Line ---------------------------- 
9 213431 Pembrook Playboy (Nathan Williamson) High speed horse who will get a cosy run. An upset chance if the gaps open
10 572213 Mighty Looee (Korbyn Newman)(J) Drawn behind the possible early leader. First four chance if he can stay handy
11 126235 Laver (Gerard O'Reilly) likes the speed on all the way and should get that here. One for longer odds
12 251473 Pull The Other Leg Scratched
13 111112 Copy That (Maurice McKendry) Terrible draw for this high speed pacer. Can win but will need luck in the running

Selections: 
Kango (2) Italian Lad(6) Pembrook Playboy(9) South Coast Arden(7)

Note:

The Harness Jewels is traditionally a day dominated by favourites with nearly 60% of all Jewels races run being won by the favourite since its first meeting at Ashburton in 2007.

At Cambridge the stats work out to be 57.4% of favourites winning although the 2008 winner of R2 Muscle And Power was later disqualified.
–                ↓
2008: 1/1, 1/1, 5/4, 2/3, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 3/3     

2010: 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 5/5, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/2, 4/3

2012: 7/7, 2/2, 1/2, 5/5, 1/1, 12/12, 1/1, 1/1, 2/2

2014: 1/1, 2/2, 2/2, 1/1, 2/2, 3/3, 1/2, 7/7, 1/1

2016: 2/2, 2/2, 2/2, 1/1, 3/2, 1/1, 3/3, 1/1, 1/1

2018: 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/2, 2/1, 2/2, 1/1, 1/1, 2/1

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