It’s a ‘mountainous’ task, but don’t write him off

While the harness racing connections of the Australian pacers may have been left rueing a gold old dose of the ‘visitors draws’ at the barrier reveal for Cambridge Raceway’s Night of Champions, the same couldn’t be said for their trotting counterparts.

With the Brent Lilley trained ex-pat kiwi Queen Elida being the exception as the only mare in the field and being assured of the pole position for tomorrow night’s inaugural $600,000 Trot Slot, her male counterparts from across the ditch will almost feel like they never left Victoria.

Arcee Phoenix, Just Believe and Callmethebreeze have had some fantastic clashes in the early part of 2024 in their home state and in barriers two, three and four will have a crucial tactical advantage over their New Zealand rivals as the mobile arm swings at the 2200m dispatch point.

The Greg and Nina Hope trained superstar, Muscle Mountain (Muscle Hill), New Zealand’s leading light for the trans tasman showdown fared much worse drawing the outside of the front line in eight and assuming the field remains in tact will come into barrier seven.

While his young reinsman Ben Hope and parents Greg and Nina would have undeniably preferred to be drawn closer to the markers to better effect the seven-year-old geldings gate speed, Ben remained upbeat about his plight with a what will be will be approach.

“It wouldn’t be the first draw we would have picked but it probably wouldn’t have been the last either,” he told Harness Racing New Zealand in an interview with Emily Morgan.

“If we had drawn inside, with his gate speed we would have just crossed them and led. The fact we have drawn that wide we will obviously have to reassess those plans. I am unsure what I will do, but whatever we do we will do with purpose and we are not out of it,” he said.

The small but select field of eight runners and the way their cards have all fallen has made for much debate in the last 72 hours with experts and pundits doing their earnest to map how the early speed will play out, and it seems you could ask ten of them and receive ten different answers.

Callmethebreeze has shown superior gate speed to the Jess Tubbs trained superstar Just Believe who is the least likely of the Aussie trio to be dictating from the mobile arm. However Queen Elida at her best has shown she is more than capable to leave the gate in a hurry and you would imagine her reinsman Chris Alford would prefer to be sitting in the trail as opposed to three the fence. In order to do so, she is likely going to have to press forward and try to hold a handy position, especially with the equally fast Arcee Phoenix alongside.

The Chris Svanosio trained five-year-old is a wee bit of an enigma in the field having beat Just Believe prior to arriving on these shores after forcing him to sit parked over 1720m and running him into the dirt with a last mile of 1:53.1 and a last half of 55.9.

Although he has shown superior gate speed to Just Believe in the past, he has also shown in being buzzed up to fly the arm that he can lose his concentration and blow to bits, which will play into the mind early of Svanosio and will likely be a split second judgement call by what he is feeling through the reins.

For those expecting Nathan Jack and Callmethebreeze to simply burn to the front and dictate, Mick Guerin revelaed the driver whom in his opinion was the most cunning in Australasia when it came to big race drives stated to him that going forward wasn’t a done deal and would very much be situational.

If your still with me after all of that diatribe, congratulations because the more I have listened to the media and connections over the last 48 hours myself, the more confused I’ve become.

“I know they are going to be pretty aggressive and I don’t blame them. The markers are obviously a great place to be at Cambridge and the likes of Callmethebreeze and Arcee Phoenix are so potent in front so I can see there being a bit of fireworks early and we will have to see how that plays out,” said Hope.

“I’ve watched all the Australians and watched them very closely and their times have been great. I would like to think without being disrespectful that our fella could do similar things that they have done but at the end of the day they have to be respected.

“They are trained and driven by superstars of the sport so we aren’t going in their thinking they aren’t going to be hard to beat because they will be. I have a lot of belief in my fella, he gives me confidence and I’m really happy to be on Muscle Mountain but I don understand that it is going to be hard from the draw,” he said.

You can say it’s parochial, but I genuinely believe that barrier draws aside, the best version of Muscle Mountain is not only up to the Aussie quartet, he is the pick of them and while he will have his work cut out for him, the barrier draw has merely rewarded his fans with ludicrous odds of $7.50 fixed which is the longest quote he’s been priced in his 50 start career.

He shown in the last couple of campaigns he no longer has to lead and dictate and can relax beautifully outside the leader and still deliver a potent sprint at the finish. Something he did with consummate ease when downing his rivals in the G1 Fred Shaw Memorial 10 days ago.

Using the clock as a guide, over an equitable distance as Arcee Phoenix’s most recent win (1720m), the Hope trained son of Muscle Hill sat parked around Ashburton (albeit two and a half years ago) and ripped home in 54.4 to become the first and only trotter in New Zealand to break two minutes for 1700m.

MUSCLE MOUNTAIN 1700M NZ RECORD REPLAY

His run that day in beating Majestic Man in his prime was 1.7 seconds faster than Arcee Phoenix, albeit over 20m less distance. But let’s not forget, Muscle Mountain was only a four-year-old and is a vastly superior horse now then he was back then. Tomorrow night’s 2200m distance sits in somewhat of a sweet spot for Muscle Mountain and the barrier is far less damning than it otherwise would have been if run over the sprint distance of a mile.

Ben Hope’s sentiments were telling when he stated he believes his horse could have produce the same results as his visiting counterparts had he been under similar circumstances.

Had he not fibrillated in the Dominion when an odds on favourite, he may well have done so with a planned Great Southern Star contest providing a measuring stick between his ability and that of his Trans Tasman rivals.

Does anyone need reminding of the day he lost 100m at the beginning of the Rowe Cup, tacked on and beat the Aussie G1 winner Aldebaran Zeus home fair and square. The same horse this time last year beat Just Believe in the Hammerhead Mile!

He has gone to war and on occasion beaten on his merits the best Australasian trotter of the last decade in Sundees Son. He has done the same to Bolt For Brilliance as well, the only other New Zealand trotter who can lay claim to the sizeable scalp of Sunny.

Yes, his recent resume might not have been produced against a wealth of Open Class trotting talent, but you can only beat what is in front of you and outside of this travelling quartet, you could make the same argument for the Australian breadth of talent.

I find it hard to fathom that he couldn’t have achieved what Just Believe did in Sweden if given the chance, especially when you factor in his superior gate speed and would love to see this horse travel abroad in the next 12 months to prove his otherworldly ability.

Tomorrow night, Muscle Mountain finds himself in the strange position of being a somewhat overlooked runner. For the youngest and least experienced reinsman in the field, it might just be the perfect place to be.

With lessened expectations from the media because of his barrier, the Hope’s generational talent has an opportunity to assert himself to the world as the best square gaiter in Australasia in the richest trotting event ever carded in the Southern Hemisphere.

Win lose or draw, I haven’t had these feelings of a true trans Tasman rivalry since Auckland Reactor’s failed Gold Coast Interdominion tilt which to my mind posed one of the last test cases of what racing in Australasia is about. Getting the best talent on both sides of the Tasman together, creating public debates and ultimately letting the horses do the talking.

Bring on tomorrow night!

For complete Cambridge fields, click here.

by Brad Reid, for Harnesslink