By Michael Guerin

The promise that is Self Assured against the proven reality of Thefixer and Cruz Bromac.

That may be the story of tonight’s $250,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Cup at Alexandra Park.

And for all the talent of the trio of stablemates, and their eight other opponents in the 3200m group one, it may be manners that decide the last great race of 2019.

Self Assured is a special horse, maybe the best horse in waiting in tonight’s classic.

He only started racing seven months ago, has barely raced in New Zealand at all and yet is the $1.70 favourite tonight over two New Zealand Cup winners.

The reason is simple. He is all x-factor, his sole two open class starts both leaving no doubt he has the motor for the big time after just nine career starts.

If he steps and behaves himself the four-year-old may have too much speed for his older, more established rivals who have been through a fortnight in the furnace of the Inter Dominions.

But for all his promise, the fact he is the Miracle Mile favourite and his dazzling sectionals, there is one jarring reason to be careful about taking odds-on for Self Assured tonight.

He had two standing starts against the big boys in the spring and missed away slightly in both. Tonight slightly could be costly.

“That is the worry for him,” admits champion trainer and Self Assured’s driver tonight Mark Purdon.

“He has been slow in his two standing starts and while he wasn’t bad away, against these horses it could be the difference.

“He is a really good horse and might still win but if he is slow away and has to give horses like Thefixer a start then it is going to be hard for him.

“So the start will be crucial. He could actually begin well but horses like Thefixer and Cruz Bromac are far more proven than him.”

Both Thefixer and Cruz Bromac were excellent in the Inter Dominion pacing final two weeks ago and if they can work toward the lead and get on the marker pegs a 3:55 time for 3200m is within their capabilities every day of the week.

Whereas Self Assured could pace the same time but might have to do it coming wide. Maybe he can, maybe not yet. But there is no value in taking $1.70 to find out.

Purdon is warming to Thefixer after his luckless but very brave Interdom campaign and he has worked well since while there is no reason Cruz Bromac can’t add this Cup to last month’s New Zealand Cup as he ticks almost all the boxes.

Others like Classie Brigade, Mach Shard and even Chase Auckland could place but winning would surprise.

Purdon is beaming about the work of Oscar Bonavena but realise the young trotter may have to sit parked or be driven off the speed to win tonight’s $100,000 National Trot.

“But it doesn’t bother me driving him with a sit, especially over 2700m.

“He is our best chance and while Winterfell is good his manners haven’t been perfect recently.”

The stables rates One Change as the better chance over Smooth Deal because of the draw in tonight’s $200,000 Sales Series Pace.

Dunn has confidence with his two fillies

By Michael Guerin

Trainer Robert Dunn doesn’t have to search far to find confidence his fillies can beat red hot favourite Amazing Dream in tonight’s $150,000 Alabar Sires’ Stakes at Alexandra Park.

Because they did it two starts ago under almost identical circumstances to tonight’s Group One.

While the market suggested Amazing Dream is all but a good thing in the 2200m event it almost seems to have amnesia about how the race panned out two starts ago.

Back then on December 6 the Dunn-trained pair of Spellbound and Need You Now led and trailed respectively and held off Amazing Dream after she had to sit parked the last lap.

The trio met again a week later and on that occasion, after Need You Now was forced to work too hard early and Spellbound settled back, with Amazing Dream too strong for them before holding out the late run of Stylish Memphis.

While there is no doubting Amazing Dream is the best of this filly crop tonight’s Group One shapes far more like the race two starts ago when she was beaten. She might have been a bit soft that night and clearly improved off it but she is anything but a certainty tonight.

“She is very good Amazing Dream, we all know that,” said Dunn.

“But we think we have two fillies who can beat her again.

“It looks like our two will lead trail again and I suppose under those circumstances Need You Now would be our best winning chance.”

Need You Now should cross to the lead from barrier two and then hand up to Spellbound (three) while Amazing Dream will probably need to pull back from one on the second line to get off the markers and then make her mid-race move.

That means she could be giving the Dunn fillies a 10 length start.

Spellbound may actually be the more athletic of the two Dunn-trained fillies but if she leads there is nothing surer than Amazing Dream will come looking before the 800m and probably put the pressure on.

So that could aid Need You Now and if the sectionals get really serious then a swooper like Stylish Memphis comes into play as she stormed home last start.

In all reality Amazing Dream might be good enough to come sit parked and crush her rivals and if you were getting $2 you would take it all day. But at the $1.70 on offer with so much going against her.

Dunn and his son John, who have been one of the most defiant training-driving combinations against the wave of All Stars success, also have hopes in the other three black type races today.

They will need more than luck with Down To The Bone and Mighty Looee in the $200,000 Sales Series Pace but Valloria was so good when fourth in the Inter Dominion Trotting Final he could have a role to play in the $100,000 National Trot.

“He has really improved since coming north,” says Dunn.

“He has toughened up to open class racing quicker than I thought and while he might not win he can get some good money.”

Classie Brigade returns to standing start racing in the $250,000 Auckland Cup after a luckless Inter Dominions and if he can begin quickly and get on the markers he can place, as he did in the New Zealand Cup last month.

“Back to the stand really suits him and he has come through the Inters great. He still has one of the fastest 3200m times in the race.”