Different name…Game’s the same!

There has been a bit more conversation on “prop” bets for harness racing over recent time but one gent from Chicago has taken exception to the idea saying, “I stick with the stock market as a day trader for my action!”

I asked him if his portfolio includes “puts” and “calls.”

He said, “of course,” spawning the title of this Mane Attraction “Different Name…Game’s the Same.”

In the stock market, “put” and “call” options are just a different name for a proposition bet, taking a stance on whether a stock or the market, itself, will go up or down—buying a “call” option hoping for it to go up or a “put” option thinking it will turn down.

These are proposition bets with a different name but the game is, basically, the same with the length of a stock option up to nine months.

It’s all risk and money management, whichever prop form of wagering you choose.

As you probably know by now, Silicon Valley Bank “collapsed” recently and their stock, which was over $740.00 per share less than two years ago, went down to as low as 33 CENTS in late March.

Yes, many people lost fortunes on their common stock holdings as the bank’s foundation collapsed…but there were some who, probably, reaped big time, multi-million-dollar awards.

How could that be?

Well, there are some 59,096,000 shares outstanding in this bank stock, BUT the short interest—a form of prop bet taking the “UNDER” from the price of the stock on the date of the “put” option taken—was a bit over 3.25 million shares. That’s over 5% of the common shares at the time of collapse and, nine months ago, the stock price was $415. Six months ago, it was still $335.70 and even three months ago it was $216 and change.

And the final kicker, just a couple of weeks before this banking earthquake brought it down to rubble, it was still $267.83.

How many of those 3.25 million shares were “shorted” with put options even in early March? Who knows, but those fortunate to do so and able to cover (buy back the shares they sold short at $267 or close to it) at 33 cents or 40 cents or, even, 50 cents reaped huge rewards with this, as I call it, “prop” bet!

The profit on a 100-share put would be around $26,000…and $260,000 on a 1,000-share put option. In other words, about $800,000,000 or more could have been the total rewards for “investors” on shorting Silicon Valley Bank stock…move over Mattress Mack!!!

So, it’s like this…buying a “put” option on a stock is, pretty much, the same as picking the “under” on Patrick Mahones throwing two touchdown passes in the Super Bowl with the O/U (over/under) 2.5 or Aaron Judge hitting a home run for the Yanks in a particular game with the O/U 1.5…or Aaron Merriman reaching the winner’s circle at “Nfld” three times with the O/U 3.5.

Now that the groundwork has been established, “three amigos” at Harnesslink—yours truly, “Ace” and “Trey,” along with a handful of longtime harness racing devotees, have come up with an initial list of prop bets for harness racing—both future props and nightly ones—which have the ability to spawn new interest in our sport with an emphasis on new and, hopefully, far reaching news headlines outside of our own bubble.

(By the way, anyone reading this expose’ is welcome to make suggestions on expanding the prop list!)

Prop betting may even soften the now hardened patience of bettors who get impatient with the lengthy time between races or fall asleep at 9:45 pm.

Here are just a few of the more than 100 received thus far pared down to the ones that seem most popular and interesting…

On track(s)…since races are timed in fifths-of-a-second, finish times with an “over-under” number with a special added value if a time is exact, I.e. (Open Pace) Over/Under 1:48 with a an option to choose EXACTLY 1:48 for an added value.

Wins by a driver and/or trainer at all tracks racing, I.e. Trace Tetrick (Over/Under 3.5 wins at HoP); Yannick Gingras (2.5 wins at The Meadowlands); Jason Bartlett (2.5 wins at YR); Justin Huckabone (1.5 wins at MR), etc.

ANY driver or trainer would be eligible for this prop bet.

Will any winning horse be Over 20 to 1 with an added value if the winner is EXACTLY 20 to 1 when official.

Will there be any judges inquires on the program? (Over/Under 2)

Will there be any disqualification on the program (Over/Under 1)

Selecting the first race winner at four different racetracks with payoff determined along the lines of probability as is done in the same manner that one bettor selected the player to score the first touchdown in each of the NFL divisional games. ($5 wager returned $72,000 plus and made huge headlines!)

Ability to select any multiple type wager and/or parlay with payoff determined by sports book professional, I.e. “x” number of 12 to 1 morning line horses (four or more) winning on an individual racing program.

Long term…Driver having most wins in 2023 (Line Example)…Aaron Merriman (-600), Ronnie Wrenn (+120), Track Tetrick (+140), Tim Tetrick (+150), Jason Bartlett (+200), Yannick Gingras (+350), Tyler Borth (+500), Brett Miller (+600), Tony Morgan (+650), Jordan Stratton (+700) Dave Palone (+700), Tyler Smith (+700), Matt Kakaley (+800), Field (+1500).

(The line means that anyone betting on Aaron Merriman would have to put up $600 to win $100 and get $700 back (similar to a 1 to 9 tote-board) with, as an example, a $100 prop bet on Tony Morgan returning $750, if Morgan would be the leading dash winner.)

Trainer having most wins in 2023 Two Scenarios…Ron Burke (-1000 Field +900)…-or-

Trainer having most wins (Burke BAR), Richard Moreau (-120), Erv Miller (+110), Cory Kreiser (+140), Jen Borgiorno (+150), Jeff Cullipher (+160), Sam Schillaci (+200), Virgil Morgan (+210), Tony Alagna (+210), Melissa Beckwith (+250) Field (+500).

Early lines on ALL MAJOR STAKES EVENTS beginning the day eligibles are announced. With a strong number of nominations for two and three-year-olds, many horses listed at 50 to 1 and some stretching to 100 to 1 or more.

(Heck, in 1997, I bet $10 on Colin Powell to be President at 90 to 1. Cheap thrills go a long way and I sure got my money’s worth in excitement for a few months!)

Proposition bets are inexpensive ways to create huge interest in any sport and it is about time harness racing joined the party.

Well, that scratches the surface, anyhow. Hopefully, we’ll get our Harnesslink faithful to chip in and send ideas for favorite wagers, parlays and any wild innovative and crazy prop wagers that can bring our sport to the pinnacle of success for the future.

By the way, it was JUST announced that DraftKings, one of the leading sports prop companies in the world, has launched its first ever horse racing product in 12 States and is expected get going in additional States in time for the Kentucky Derby.

Jason Robins, DraftKings CEO, said the new wagering products is part of the company’s goal to provide customers with the “best-in-class sports and gaming products.”

Time is tickin’ away…Let’s have some fun!

by John Berry, for Harnesslink