John Berry: Answering questions on prop betting

Since Mane Attraction columns became a proponent of Prop Betting for our sport of harness racing, there have been several questions asking how, exactly, the odds on such wagering would be figured.

Basically, it would take professional handicappers that know our industry and those persons would try and figure the possibility of an event happening and then putting a number value on the event.

Actually, there are three types of odds—Money-line Odds, Point Spread Odds and Over/Under Odds.

Some would be more applicable to your sport than others, however, as the number of betting options increase, all of these types of odds could come into play with others added “as time goes by.”

Money-line odds show a professional handicapper’s opinion of the probability of an event becoming a reality.

In this case, the more likely that an event would occur would be signified with a (-) minus sign with the (+) indicating the less likely the event would happen.

It, actually, would be similar to a morning line, which is done by a professional handicapper (or computer) which translates to the win probability.

Of course, this could be extended to engulf exactas, trifectas, superfectas and any multiple “Pick” wagers—similar to parlays in other sports—as well as driver vs. driver, final time of any race, the over/under posted price of an exacta or trifecta…the possibilities are endless with the bettor able to pick and choose any wager desired and receive odds from the professional line-maker.

One might wish to make a three-horse parley at three different tracks (similar to a three-team football parlay) and get odds of 1,000 to 1 or more if the three horses are, say, 10/1, 8/1 and 12/1 on their respective morning lines.

So, how are odds figured?

An example of this type of wager is…when a morning line maker lists a horse as the 5 to 2 favorite, the M/L maker believes that the entrant has a 28.57% chance of winning.

How does he/she get to that number?

If, say, $12,300 is bet in the win pool and the “takeout” is 19%, the NET pool available to the bettors would be just under $10,000—$9,963. ($12,300 x .19 = $9,963).

With approximately $2,767 wagered on the winner, the $2 ticket would return $7.20—maybe a few pennies more in Kentucky).

A horse listed at 6 to 1 would have a 14.28% chance of winning, according to the M/L maker.

Two things are needed to make a VIABLE morning line—meaning one that can happen on a tote-board—the takeout percentage on win bets and the number of horses in a race. That’s it!

The public may not agree—they rarely do—and that is why the odds board at pari-mutuel tracks changes every 45 seconds or so as wagers are updated.

In terms of prop betting, the 5 to 2 morning line would be +3500, meaning, for each dollar wagered, the probable payoff would be $3.50…a $2 price of $7.00 and a $100 ticket worth $350.00.

(With NO pari-mutuel “takeout” in prop betting the win payoff rises to about $8.40 (and about $8.56 in Kentucky).

Point Spread Odds involve a number of scenarios, including driver matchups.

In this scenario, there is a “favorite” and an “underdog.”

In a prop bet being one driver against another, say, Dave Palone vs. Aaron Merriman, if the line-maker thinks Palone is the favorite with a 70 percent change of finishing ahead of Merriman, the line would be approximately (-142), meaning one would have to put up $142 to win $100 and receive $242 in return.

On the other side of the coin, the underdog bettor would have to wager about $58 to win $100 for a return of $158.

Point Spread Odds can involve a “margin” of victory, where the “favorite” is expected to beat an opponent by “X” number of points in a football game or by so many runs in baseball or goals in a hockey game.

In our sport, it can be a certain distance—a nose, head, neck or “x” number of lengths. The possibilities are endless with the bettors able to create their own prop bet and get it from any professional sports betting outlets.

Will Foiled Again (+140) beat Seatrain (-140)…Will Twin B Joe Fresh (+110) beat EJ (-110)…

The possibilities are endless and can bring much needed publicity to harness racing…just like the guy who bet a five-leg parley including the Dodgers in baseball, the Bills in the NFL, North Carolina in NCAA Basketball, the Timberwolves in the NBA and the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup.

A $7.50 wager with a probable payoff of $378,378.00…with a cash-out available along the way!

Of course, it’s an unlikely win…but it made HEADLINES.

Over/Under Odds would involve betting on, in our sport, the final time or number of lengths involved by the participants chosen.

This could be on the outcome of an entire race or “special orders” of one horse against another.

These can be “future” bets on our big races and any of our few thousand drivers (and/or trainers).

Will Carson Conrad—over/under 300 1/2 wins in 2025 (the “1/2” being there are no ties), Will Aaron Merriman over/under 850 1/2 wins in 2025. Will Marvin Luna win over/under 450 1/2 races in 2025. Will Geremy Bobbitt win over/under 145 1/2 races in 2025. Will amateur driver Larry Ferrari win over/under 20 races in 2025.

Will there be over-under 77.5 miles in 1:47.2 or faster in 2025

Will we see two dead-heats at one track in one night in 2025.

There can be future odds on the 2026 Hambletonian featuring the 100 highest priced yearlings of 2024 with future odds on ALL THE OTHER yearlings as an “entry or field wager.”

Caesars Sportsbook just reported that a bettor turned $5 into $80,777.02 on an “insane” 25 leg parley involving football, hockey and soccer encompassing wins, points, goals and a couple of other things that are above comprehension.

All we need is one of these “unlikely” scenarios to jump-start prop betting in our sport.

Everyone else is getting the headlines.

It’s about time we get ours!

May The Horse Be With You