Gil Winston: Commentary and Analysis

The bewildering world of New Jersey harness racing.

Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to – wager on the harness races in New Jersey. Looks like I failed rhyming class.

First, The Meadowlands. There were thirteen qualifiers on Thursday, August 22^nd (analysis below) in preparation for the two-weekend meet beginning August 30^th.  Just two weekends? This is great for the horsemen.

This small island between summer and fall racing, before the month of thoroughbred turf racing arrives, is all good. Horsemen are free agents. If they choose to take some time off, they can. If they choose to race, they can do that, too. As for those customers who don’t take their handicapping seriously, and just want to see the races, they are also happy.

But then there are the customers who actually play the races because they believe they can make money doing so. They are not so happy. For the most part, standardbreds race on a weekly basis. It is this consistency of form that is a main reason that attracts bettors to prefer harness racing over thoroughbred racing. On opening weekend of August 30^th, you will see many date-gaps in the lines of horses, and handicappers will have to guess on the readiness of the horses.

This issue has been exacerbated since the racetracks no longer require horses to qualify if they had not raced in 30 days. This travesty was allowed to happen as the cost of qualifying horses increased since horses are no longer stabled at the track. Good for the horsemen, disastrous for the serious horseplayers. They need to find a way to go back to the winning formula. There are a number of reasonable ways to reimburse horsemen for qualifying. A little imagination is required. But going back to the winning formula is a must.

I still recommend reviewing our analysis of horses’ previous starts at The Meadowlands, even if that start was more than a month ago – because you have nothing else. You may track “trainers off layoffs” as a guide. Of course, we have no idea if a horse spent those 5-weeks playing with friends in the field, or working hard in preparation for this two-weekend meet. Most important to heed the information gleaned from qualifiers, but if you choose to ignore the two-weeks of end-of-summer completely, we will understand.

We know there is politics involved in the awarding of race dates, but that holds no interest to the horseplayer. We care about what is right and what is wrong. This horseplayer would also like to see an end to these 14 race card nightmare marathons and see an extra day or two added per week.

One last bewilderment from The Meadowlands. I mentioned thirteen qualifiers on Thursday morning. But there were fourteen races. The fourteenth race, far away from viewing of harness racing fans, was a full field $240,000 New Jersey Stakes Final for 2-year-old colts and geldings.

Since most of you missed it, it was an exciting race with the top two-year-olds in New Jersey having at it. There is no doubt that the MCCUSKER connections were thrilled with the victory. Not so much the bettors who were looking to bet MCCUSKER when next he raced. There is little doubt that he would have paid a generous price in that field. MANOLETE, the would-have-been favorite, disappointed when he was caught from behind despite a beneficial trip, and a tepid 29.3 last quarter.

But what bettors were looking to bet MCCUSKER? In our analysis column from 7/26, the two horses that finished first and second in the 8/22 morning race were scored. Check the analysis column of the 7-26 races here and you will see the following comments for scored horses:

• MCCUSKER “Strongest pace through the lane”
• MANOLETE “Looped, then 3-wide to quarter. Would have won by more if cleared earlier”

Since MCCUSKER went off at 29-1 on 7/26, and the hidden pace was not apparent from the program, we could have expected a generous exacta if it was a betting race.

Why wasn’t this a betting race? Why not add the race to opening weekend the following week?

It’s complicated, and in my opinion, it was handled improperly by management. There was a power failure in the middle of the card on Hambletonian eve. Half of the card was canceled, and that included the $240,000 NJ Stakes Final for two-year olds. Well, then race them on the next scheduled racing card, the weekend of 8/30 and 8/31. No can do, and here is the reason I have been led to believe. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Next weekend are the NJ Classic eliminations, and the following weekend are the finals. Horses racing in the NJ Stakes would not be able to race in the NJ Classic if it was the same weekend of the Classic eliminations. Ergo, a need to have this one race – in the morning – away from the betting public. This was a great injustice to harness racing fans and the betting public.

In my opinion, the 7 races wiped out on 8/2 should have been a betting card raced somewhere between 8/6 and 8/24. They probably could have found a few eager horsemen willing to race and fill out a typical 14-race card, but a 7-race card would have been fine.

As I write this column, the replay of the $240,000 stakes race is finally available for viewing at the playmeadowlands.com website under their “replays” menu. Harnesslink pestered the powers that be and now has the video replay of the race.

MCCUSKER REPLAY 

On to opening day at Freehold on August 22^nd. Those of you who read John Berry’s article already knew that bewilderingly, Freehold closed down its Sportsbook – just in time for football season. Visitors just shook their heads and moved on. On a more ominous note, purses were down, and Freehold continues to lose its ongoing battle with the plant’s escalators. Escalator technology seems to have bypassed Central New Jersey, as this issue has been ongoing for years.

Do these factors portend an inglorious ring down of the curtain to more than 150 years of history? On a positive note, we noticed some new lighting on the ancient infield tote board. Are these mixed signals? Jimmy Marohn, Jr. re-established his lofty perch as the king of Freehold with five wins on opening day. He returned to action towards the end of the last meet after an horrific accident at Yonkers, but now he is ready to rock and roll starting with day 1 of the meet.

The objective of this analysis is to identify horses via plus or minus scores that are not identifiable in the past performances. Horses whose races are accurately captured in the past performances are not captured here, regardless of how well or poorly they may have raced. Consider all races without comment as WUSIWUG – an acronym for What U See (in past performances) Is What U Get.

Scores do not indicate must-bet or must-toss the next time they race as other handicapping factors come into play. But these scores give the bettor a huge edge in what is frequently the most important factor when making betting decisions and many scored horses have been coming in with generous payouts. While I have not advocated blindly playing all scored horses, the results have been saying that such a strategy is worth considering. When you see “lineup” in the comments, that means that horse followed another horse to the wire and there is no way to tell how much pace or trot it might have had if clear.

You cannot assume scored horses will race the following week. Here is the best way to profit from this analysis.

• Save scored horses in your virtual stables.
• On the day you are wagering on races, and see Freehold or Meadowlands in the past performances, click here This will open up the list of all articles. For horses that show lines that pique your interest, find the article that analyzes the races for that day, then search for the horses in question. If the horse has a positive score, you know the horse is better than the pp line shows. Click on other weeks that the horse raced if the most recent race does not complete the story for you. This will give you access to all analysis.

There were thirteen Meadowlands qualifying races this week in preparation for the two-weekend racing schedule. This broken-up schedule makes it extremely tough on the handicapper. Since the end of the meet and these two weeks of racing are less than a month apart, no qualifiers are required. Evaluating layoffs is all but impossible.

This week’s winners that were identified in previous analyses

Two winners from the few horses scored at last week’s six Freehold qualifying races. One of them “sneaked” out of town. Don’t expect many more live qualifying race analyses from Freehold since they rarely hold more than three of them on any week.

Freehold              8-24 Race 10      FLYING TIGER                    $ 8.00    Scored +2 in his qualifier.

Tioga Downs       8-25 Race 2         SONO CONFUSO              $ 7.70    Scored in Freehold qualifier.

Meadowlands Qualifiers 8-22

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

*** Races 1 through 4 were all WUSIWUG ***

Race 5   1 TIME FOR LANDING     1             Blocked with trot

Race 5   2 JERSEY SLIDE                  1             Appeared to have a little more than what chart says

Race 6   1 ROBINHOOD                  1             Followed dull cover, responded willingly when clear

Race 8   2 ATTABOYCHET                1             Foul gaited, breaking and trouble with the turn is a concern. However, he was much the best when pacing. If it’s an equipment issue, he might be a good one.

Race 10 1 LET IT ALL HANGOUT   1             Willingly when clear

Race 11 6 SOARING NOW             2             Strong pace when clear

Race 12 3 PATTYCAKEMOOSS        1             Accelerated when clear

Race 12 5 SWEET AMIRA               2             A fast brush to the top, then under a strong hold in the stretch. Much more

Race 13 1 BET A BUNDLE              1             Strong acceleration when cleat

Freehold 8-23

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

3             8 BANGIN IN THE HALL   3             3-wide the first and third turns, pushed wide in last turn

4             3 JUST ROLLING               1             Lost a lot of ground on last turn

5             7 TARGARYEN EMPRESS 1             Race long over before clear, good pace

10           4 CATNAP                           1             Lost ground, wide on turn, then forced to alter late in stretch

10           5 BEACH PASSAGE            1             3-wide entire first turn

Freehold 8-24

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             5 STONE COLD SAVAGE   1             3-wide last turn

1             7 PAPRIKE BLUE CHIP      1             4-wide on last turn

1             8 GORBEOUS VIEW          -1           Benefitted from trip, despite 8-hole

3             7 BELTANE A                      1             Lineup

4             6 LYLEGROUND                 1             Wide the first turn

4             7 VICIOUS BLUE CHIP      1             3-wide first turn

5             5 IMINURBLINDSPOT      1             Parked almost half a mile

7             3 TIN ROOF RAIDER A     1             Checked the bushed 3/8 of a mile

7             4 GAITWAY GUY               1             Clear too late with pace

8             5 DELESTON                      1             Blocked with pace

Power to the punter.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink