John Berry: The deceiving value of speed

In looking over the harness racing sales results from the recent Standardbred sales and with anticipation of the ones that are directly ahead, a (former) owner has surfaced saying he’s been priced out of the yearling market—and for a couple of reasons, one of which is “TIME!”

He argues that “speed,” having replaced “durability” as the main ingredient of the standardbred breed, has benefitted breeders while destroying many small owners, started to diminish the size of fields in overnight events and contributed to the overall shrinkage of opportunity…”unless you’re one of the big outfits,” as he says.

“In these eyes, speed is good for one aspect of this business—the breeding industry./“

HIs argument is that purses have not inflated with the yearling prices at the fall sales over the years and the owners with all of buying power are taking the steam out of older owners and potential new owners by making purchases of the yearling that have the blackest ink and look the part in the ring.

“When the 2:00 mile was king,” he said, “purses for many of the stakes events were about the same as today…in fact, some of them, like the once famed Fox Stake or those on the Illinois circuit, have shriveled up like a raisin.”

The gentleman has a point.

He went on, “The Hambletonian was worth a ‘mil’ (million) this year and, while that’s terrific, it was $1.5 ‘mil’ in the past…

“So, the winner gets around a half million and fifth gets 50 grand—hardly a dent in the price of many yearlings when they sold.

“It doesn’t add up anymore.

“The Breeders Crowns are rich, yes, but, once you get back of third, an owner with an ‘average’ yearling price these days, is still in the red.

“Today’s speed has put a much higher number on yearlings these days, but I think that a 1:50 pacer and 1:52 trotter has the same earning power that a 1:55 pacer and 1:57 trotter had years ago.

“That’s why I am not in the ballgame anymore.

“The top guys can outbid us little guys and have three or four or, even, more covered in every major stake race and, if a guy like me is lucky to have a good one, we’re lucky to get a scrap!

“We’re already seeing smaller fields developing and that’s because of only two reasons…one, they pull ‘em off the track for breeding by the age of four or five or, two, these horses can’t take miles that are, literally, at break-neck speed.”

There were over 900 yearlings sold with the average being a “bit” over $72,000 with the median being around $40,000—the median being half more and half less than that number.

Around 70 sold for $200,000 or more.

How many two-year-old trotters have won $200,000 or more?

14…

Seven fillies, six colts and a gelding…

That number will rise with the Breeders Crown and several other stakes still on the menu

How many two-year-old pacers have won $200,000 or more?

16…with two more knocking at the door.

Eight fillies, seven colts and a gelding…

And, yes, a few more will be added…

But the gent that has “stopped throwing good money after bad” says he’s not chasing champions anymore.

“Talk about 99 to 1 odds on the tote board, they’re 999 to 1 when a yearling steps into the sales ring.

“It’s not in the cards,” he says, and adds, “and I’ve been doing that in the casino, too.

“Yes, there are some that make the big bucks in this business and that’s exactly the reason I am left out in the cold.

“I looked at the U.S.T.A. site the other day and the top 10 trainers have made $60 million in purse money—that’s a huge chunk of the $377 million to date this year.

“The top 50 have around 40% of the purses.

“Folks, I’d bet there are over 2,500 trainers in the game. Where does that leave them to try and make a living going for purses of $500 or $1,000.

“That says it all! It’s a crapshoot!

“In the casino, you see those tempting $20,000 jackpots in lights for 60 cents or 80 cents or a dollar and you can take a chance for a couple of hundred.

“But for $100,000 or $200,000…or, even, $50,000, for a guy like me—and there are plenty like me—I’ll be at the cleaners in no time with the cost of getting them to the races and the huge vet bills and equipment and everything.

“Like my friend told me, ‘Wanna become a millionaire in the harness racing? Start with TWO MILLION!”

Of course, the lights shine brightest in Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana where the stakes programs are still very lucrative, but the ever-increasing threats looming as casino interests and legislatures keep a keen eye on things, including the cost of racing and the effect it has on bottom lines and budgets.

“What’s a 1:50 mile worth these days? Practically nothing when these horses are going 10 lengths faster than that!

“And you’re all the way down to 12% when you’re finishing third!!!”

That’s a valid point.

The two-year-old list of the fastest pacers shows 50 (plus ties) with marks of 1:51.2 or faster—the fastest being Sippinonsearoc at 1:48.2—with over 20 percent on the list unable to show $50,000 in bounty.

The gelding Falkirk has a mark of 1:50.4 and has $18,249 on his card. Riding The Waves has $30,500…Dandy Deal has $34,525…all with marks of 1:50.4.

One might say that they may have been hampered by injury or “something else!” That doesn’t matter. Speed like that for a two-year-old with full body maturity still years away is as good an excuse as any! IT’S WHAT OUR BREED HAS BECOME!

Remembering when the 2:10 two-year-old list was sacred, the top 50 juvenile trotters have all won under 1:55—1:54.3 last on the list.

Three of them are tied at the top with marks of 1:51.4—one colt, one filly and one gelding.

Gap Kronos S is the colt…and he hasn’t won $100,000 yet—-$91.395.

KInd of a late bloomer, he’s won $78,000 of that in the last week or so!

On the other hoof, the filly Gingin Si is in the top 20 with $18,700 on her card.

As my midwestern friend lamented, “I’d love to have a Walner or Muscle Hill or something like that…Chapter Seven…

“But what I’m really looking for is one by Potomac Lad out of Spud’s Sue…You know what I mean?”

May The Horse Be With You!

 by John Berry, for Harnesslink