John Berry: Handicapping the Hambletonian

As some of you know, I, too, was a harness racing handicapper of sorts—not nearly in the class of Pandy or Gabe or Dave, Garnet or Gil, among others—but I held my own when I had that responsibility at Balmoral Park (way back when) and, more recently, at Pompano Park, where I was also responsible for the morning line, with its accuracy assured with their “magic number” being 123—the “net number” being 99.63, about as close to the net pool number of 100 as possible.

Yes, I had the privilege as being the first and only handicapper to make all the horses in a morning line the same odds—in a $4,000 Pop-Up. Series Final—which gave that event headlines throughout the industry.

It was interesting that some other line makers commented that my morning line—all six horses at 7 to 2—were quick to point out that the line was a little “heavy” since that line equaled 133.

How true that is but that’s on a straight 7 to 2—or $3.50 to 1 (22.22 points in a morning line).

But each time that number ticks UP a dime, the point number comes DOWN so $3.90 to 1 odds is worth only 20.4 points, which brings the total to 122.44, right in line with the “magic number” of 123.

That’s why I do my own morning line and, if I had to do both the morning line and the handicapping, the morning line would always be done first, so it wouldn’t “interfere” with the handicapping and selection of a possible long shot proposition.

I had my share of longshot winners—up to 50 to 1 on a George Nap, Sr. trotter—and my motto has always been “HARDLY A MAN IS NOW ALIVE…THAT PAID HIS MORTGAGE AT 3 TO 5.

I believe I may be the only handicapper to have a straight Super Hi-5 printed in a program and a 40 to 1 SINGLED in a Pick-4 that paid $4,900 and change.

Once, in a seminar held at The Meadowlands, I predicted a “dead-heat” in a race THAT HAPPENED, with The Big M publicity guru witnessing and saying, “Why, that was as good as Babe Ruth calling his famous home run shot at Wrigley way back when.

I wouldn’t say that…but it was a hoot having that happen in a handicapping forum!

Odds—long odds—don’t scare me…I embrace them.

I enjoyed creating the morning line…I took pride in making it accurate always…

Remember, a morning line is only valid if it can be achieved on a tote-board.

I’ve seen some morning lines as high at 170 and some as low as 80…so take the time and learn to do your own to make the most out of your selections. (I did a Mane Attraction column on that subject, so it’s there for the taking!)

With all of that stated, here’s my look at the 2024 Hambletonian with my own morning line attached…

2024 field for the Hambletonian at The Meadowlands           

1) Karl (Tactical Landing) Nancy Takter/Yannick Gingras (16-14-1-0-1  $1,274,816) (3/2)

Horses aren’t machines…they are equine athletes…and there are those that expect perfection every step of every race. Last week’s mile was outstanding as he rebounded from a very tough journey the week prior (while trotting his fastest mile ever) to show speed off the wings the time and a first up move turning for home and sealing the deal with a :26.4 kick home in a lifetime best performance. Deserves to get the action.

2). Mars Hill (Muscle Hill) Tony Alagna/Todd McCarthy (15-5-3-1  $225,996) (30/1)

Trotted an “even-steven” mile in last sitting mid-pack all the way drafting along and trotting home in :27.4 in the T C I elimination. Only win was in a conditioned event at The Big M followed by a nice equally with final quarter in :27. This is a very tough assignment with a “99” staring him in the face on the tote-board.

3)  Highland Kismet (Father Patrick) Mark Etsell/Bob McClure. (8-5-1-0   ($126,150) (6/1)

Unraced at age two, started giving hints up north of the border, winning the Good Times in 1:51.3—:26.4. Been showing very solid kicks home since arrival at The Meadowlands. Especially in last when he closed fastest of all after making a double-bubble bid finding room to roam in the lane. Kind of an unknown quantity that will let it all hang out going for the Hambletonian crown. Can upset the applecart on best form here.

4) T C I (Cantab Hall) Ron Burke/David Miller) (18-14-2-1  $1,418,507) (5/2)

Trotted the best mile of his career in Hambletonian elim leading at every pole in a 1:50.4 mile capped by a final panel in :26.4. Will be winging from the get-go and probably yielding to Karl for the garden trip. It’s anticipated that a this will be the match-up of the year (so far) but, going for a million, there will be a lot of “kitchen sinks” thrown around.

5) Security Protected (Father Patrick) Marcus Melander/Tim Tetrick (18-7-2-3  $454,087) (20/1)

Three wins to kick off the season…not much but a couple of “nickel” checks facing the upper echelon. Had some speed off the wings in the Dancer and the Hambletonian Elimination and held fairly firm throughout but not quite up to the task against Dig Sauer and Karl in last two but they were his best career miles. Just a notch or two below the top rung.

6) Bella’s Musclehill (Muscle Hill) Richard Norman/Scott Heron (10-2-4-1  $69,943) (20/1)

Unraced at two, won a couple of NW2 races along with one clunker when he lost composure in Tompkins and got a perfect journey in Karl’s Elim to finish a strong second, capping the mile with a :26.3 finale in best career mile. Post doesn’t help here and probably “40” to “50” on the board.

7) Secret Agent Man (Chapter Seven) Julie Miller/Andy Miller  (10-3-1-0  $63,055).  (20/1)

Took record a month ago in NW2 in a strong effort—1:50.3.—:27—was out and grinding last 9/16s reached third turning for home but done in by a :26.4 final panel. Will have to come from well out of it to garner a check against these sophomores.

8) Sig Sauer (Muscle Hill) Noel. Daley/Andrew McCarthy  (8-5-0-1 $358,712)  (5/1)

Lightly raced but has proven he can rattle some cages when straightened away for the drive home. Took mark of 1:50 in the Dancer two starts ago and was roaring with trot in his elimination after leaving and looking for better spot off the wings. Would not be one bit surprised to pull off an upset and expected quick fractions would help cause.

9) Private Access (Muscle Hill) Luc Blais/James Macdonald. (15-3-4-2  $170,481)  (15/1)

Competitive sort that has been “right there” in just about every start this year, showing punch off the wings along with a consistently strong kick home. No doubt the post is a hindrance against the best bearcats in this class but has shown he can grind a long way. Last race was his best yet showing speed off the wings and was gaining during a :26.4 final panel—his :26.3. This IS the supreme test!

10) Amazing Catch (Walner)  Ake Svanstedt/Dexter Dunn   (11-2-4-2  $263,018).  (30/1)

Was 30/1 in T C I Elim and drafted along the entire route in last from the two post. A decent effort? Yes! Couldn’t quite handle a :26.4 final although he did so six weeks ago closing stoutly…but against NW2. Look for “99” on the tote board in a very tough assignment from the outside post.

FINAL SELECTIONS — (3)-Highland Kismet. (8)-Sig Sauer. (1)-Karl (6) Bella’s Musclehill. (4) T C I

May The Horse Be With You

by John Berry, for Harnesslink