Could extreme speed slow down yearling prices?

In a recent Mane Attraction, I pointed out the fate of Boston Rocks, pointing to a late June event at The Meadowlands in a three-year-old Open Pace.

Trained by Mike Deters for owners Peter Blood and Rick Berks, this excellent son of Boston Red Rocks paced his final half in :52.4 and final quarter in :25.1 and hardly earned his keep for the week—that only because of the generosity of a recent ruling at The Meadowlands paying all those that put on their great show.

Turning the page forward a week, Miki Ray paced a similar final quarter—:25.1—in his Meadowlands Pace Elim, paced his mile in 1:49.3 and wasn’t even close to earning a spot in the big show…in fact, a competitor passed him late in the mile.

…And Captain’s Quarters paced a final quarter in :24.4—a 1:39.1 mile rate— and only edged by one, single horse in the lane to finish fourth—his last half around :52.2.

These aren’t just rare events anymore in this unparalleled era of speed.

In the Graduate Pacing Final for four-year-olds, Christchurch paced his final half in :51.4 and final quarter in :25.4 AND COULDN’T PASS A SINGLE HORSE!

Act Fast and Coach Stefanos paced similar miles in that event, each posting final panels of :25.1 with both closing stoutly to finish third and fifth, respectively, in their events, earning the minor stipends in a mile clocked in 1:47.3 with both those pacers—Seafire, too—in 1:48.

This isn’t just confined to The Meadowlands.

In Hoosier Park’s Open for the girls, the two mares pacing their final quarters in :25.4 were in a photo FOR FOURTH AND FIFTH…soundly beaten.

There are now two-year-olds—hardly wet up to their withers—pacing final quarters in :27 and not getting much of a sniff of greatness—or, more importantly to their owners—a healthy check!

Billy W. from Bluegrass country said it best, “The standardbred breed is so fast these days that, if you aren’t joining the fray from the get-go, your toast.

“They can go a long, long way these days—not like the old days when you could get away with a :29 or :30 quarter somewhere in the mile.

“Front speed is king these days.

“All the value is up front!

“I heard a guy in the stands recently saying he’d give anything to own a 1:50 pacer.

“I said to myself, ‘Why?’

“A 1:50 mile among the top echelon will not even get you a check these days.

“How many horses have won in under 1:50 this year already?”

(Harnesslink) Over 50 horses have won in 1:49 or faster with 16 of those in 1:48 or faster!

By the way, of those 50 horses with those records between the fastest—1:47.1—and 1:49, only 14 have won over $100,000 (Nijinsky at the top with $480,155 and looking for more) with only five over the $200,000 plateau.

Nine horses in this select list are under $30,000 in earnings and two are under $15,000.

“What good is speed,” Billy asks, “when the checks going out are more than the checks coming in?

And that brings us to the crux of this Mane Attraction.

Yearling sales have brought record numbers for the breeders in recent years with the number of yearlings selling for over $100,000 in 2022 (two-year-olds in 2023) being 334.

Yes, 334 yearlings were sold in 2022 with the Lexington Select Sale leading the way with 196, followed by the Standardbred Horse Sale with 115.

The Hoosier Sale (8), London Classic Yearling Sale (8) and Ohio Select Jug Sale (7) all had yearlings in their respective sales bringing $100,000 plus.

Lexington’s Select Sale’s 196 yearlings sold for an average of $190,883 while the Standardbred Horse Sale’s 84 yearlings averaged $178,817.

So, how many two-year-old trotters and pacers made over $178,817 last season?

Answer…a total of 68…30 trotters and 38 pacers.

More importantly, how many of those $100,000 yearlings made the list?

Taking JUST the top selling 50 two-year-old trotters and pacers in 2022—with number 50 on the list of “pacing” colts and fillies selling for $168,000, TO DATE, seven have made more than the average hammer price—six colts and one filly.

On the trotting side of the ledger, where number 50 on the hammer list sold for $220,000, even stretching out the list by a “nose,” three colts and three fillies have exceeded the “average” price…but only ONE has covered the hammer price and after-cost of getting to the races.

This isn’t a new problem…it’s been going on for years and years.

“It’s the same as chasing a jackpot at the casino,” lamented Billy, “as we all see those $20,000 or $50,000 jackpots staring you in the face…and those linked up ones offering several hundred-thousand-dollar jackpots.

“This is, actually, no different, as the ‘jackpots’ offered are in the form of top prize in The Hambletonian, North American Cup, any Breeders Crown event and all of the other rich stakes guaranteed by casinos—for how long? Who knows?—and some State legislatures.

“Chasing those jackpots is the only reason that these folks chase after these yearlings.”

In checking over recent history, the million-dollar colt, Maverick—actually $1,100,000—comes to mind from the 2019 sale.

He banked all of $2,900.

The million-dollar colt Damien has earnings of z-e-r-oh, my!

Way back in 2011, Detour Hanover brought $825,000…earned $25,375…

Of the top 50 yearlings sold all time, number 50 bringing $480,000, six—that’s right—six—managed to prove their worth on the racetrack, admittedly some narrowly, but they claimed the mountain and did it.

Oh, some of these costly yearlings of yesteryear have had some success in the stud barn…Tactical Landing among them, but the ODDS AGAINST (p,5,1:50.1; $1,403,938) are very, very long to achieve success.

As Billy summed it up, “The odds on the tote-board go up to ’99’ (99 to 1) and I’ve put $2 across the board on them from time-to-time. But I, personally, would think long and hard to put $100,000 or $200,000 or $500,000 on any 99 to 1 shot that walks into any sales ring!

“If earnings don’t matter, then it’s OK to spend a few hundred thousand for a 1:50 pacer but, if earnings are more important, just get an aged pacer via the claiming route. They still go for decent money and they’ve proven themselves in good company.

“Look, trotters are beginning to go miles in 1:50 or a tick or two faster, as well. We’ve had some this year,”

(Harnesslink) Four so far—the fastest in 1:49.2 by Southwind Tyrion)

Here’s a novel idea…Have some prop betting on a yearling winning The Hambletonian or Breeders Crown of Little Brown Jug or any other major race a couple of years down the road.

At 5,000 to one odds, I’d take a swing at that for a few bucks…like a “call option” on a racehorse!

May The Horse Be With You

by John Berry, for Harnesslink