Trickle-down economics can be described as a policy that is said to help any person or entity that has favored those in the upper echelon of the economic spectrum with the hopes that such a policy will ātrickle downā to those less fortunate in the form of economic growth.
There doesnāt seem to be any theory or theories stitched to trickle-down economics and, in examining the effect on our harness racing, ātrickle-downā economics just might have the opposite effect for our sport and its future survival.
Of course, no individuals or segment of the industry has been singled out but, in looking over some stats from the past, say, three decades or so, some every day, ordinary folk have surfaced pointing the finger in a couple of directions.
āIt is beginning to look similar to Amazon putting companies like Borders, Circuit City and Tower Records, to name a few, out of business,ā said our main man Hughie.
āThere is an investment firm, in fact, that had an index entitled āDeath by Amazon,ā tracking the stock prices of dozens of companies that were/are threatened by AMZN.āā¦
Amazon, of course, isnāt the only reason for the demise or threatened demise of companies.
Poor management and slow, antiquated thinking have had a hand in this, as well.
Grocery stores, department stores, office supply stores, clothing companies, sporting goods stores and foot apparel outfits have been put in perilā¦and the reasons that our grand sport is in a ābitā of trouble looks similar.
Yes, Amazon and some other companies like Walmart, eBay, Alibaba and Rakuten, again, to name a few, have changed the landscape of retail businesses.
One cannot fault them for finding the way to think forwardly without fear.
They thumb their noses up to those left at the āstarting gateā and say, ātoo bad!ā
Hughie notes that āwe donāt have dial phones anymoreā¦or typewritersā¦or a million other things.
āWith artificial intelligence at our front door, it can only get worse!ā
Indeed, even traders on the New York Stock Exchange floor are feeling the heat from āAI.”
Same is true for our sport as the top FIVE or SIX trainersāthere are probably a couple of thousand still in the businessāhave gobbled up almost 10% of the purses paid thus far in the first half of the year.
One cannot fault them as they found a way to their great successā¦and they deserve every nickel.
Casinos are constantly ārefreshing their floors with new, innovative gaming machines, including historical racingāwith no 25% or 35% bite!āto go with locked in odds.
Weāre just standing still!
In viewing things, a ābitā further, the breeders just may be a reason that threatens this sport with demise.
Their record-breaking sales that have produced gigantic yearling prices.
It seems to be because our breedāunlike other equine breedsāhas gone from one of durability to one strictly bred for speed.
Unlike the āgood olā days when the driver-trainer carried a stopwatch trying to get to the three-eighths in :47 seconds and half in 1:02 and change to get to the winnerās circle, the catch-driver now is at that same spot in 41 secondsā30 lengths fasterāand half in :54 with a philosophy that the only thing that matters is the finish line which is, quite possibly, also 54 seconds awayā¦maybe fasterā¦no matter the cost!
There were about 1,300 races contested during the first half of the year and, with just a few exceptions, the trackās aprons were, for the most part, empty, meaning our sport has weaned away from being a spectator sport and the bettor has weaned away from wagering pools that are stretched so thin that they offer little value, especially with some hefty 25%-35% rakes.
Randomly selecting one nightās racing results from ānot-even-a-handful of tracksā recently, the win mutuels read $3.40, $4.40, $3.00, $2.70, $3.30, $2.40, $2.90, $3.40, $2.20, $4.50, $2.20, $4.10, $2.70, $3.30, $2.90, $4.50, $3.20, $3.80, $3.60, $4.60, $4.60, $3.70, $4.40ākeep readingā$2.70, $3.90, $3.70, $4.10, $4.20, $3.40, $2.20, $5.00 and $3.20ā¦
If you got tired of reading thisā¦HOW DO YOU THINK THE BETTORS FEEL BETTING ON THIS??? (And having to endure a painful 20 minute drag time in between races!)
As Hughie says, āThereās nuttinā to drag for these days!ā
Since the complexion of the sport has changed so much, two noticeable things have taken place that seem to be slowly decimating harness racing.
The breakneck speed of today is the genius of the breeders as black ink is the only ink that matters in a sales catalog.
After the hammer has hit the block and all terms settled, they are basking in records with the āhammerā nowĀ on the trainers to attempt to recoup the investment with their skills (and luck) and the owners living on a wing and a prayer that the ONE they have bought is the top one in their respective divisions of the many hundreds that have had their credentialsāunproven, of courseādefined by the black ink in the sales catalog.
When races are written, they are written for those involved in the industryāNOT THE BETTOR.
When a somewhat matched field is put together for our young horses in stakes event with, say, 50 eligiblesĀ going in five divisions, when all is said and done, when there is a dominant horse or two in any division, all the othersāwhether they have been photo’d out in 1:50 or finished well backāare eligible to that same NW1 or NW2 with the probability of a 2 to 5 chalk going to the gate,Ā resulting in a row of win mutuel prices as shown above.
Itās inevitable! And the result is another player lost to the ages.
One-by-one, we lose them and their pari-mutuel dollars.
But WHO CARES?
We have the crutches of casinos and legislatures for harness racingās āSocial Securityā or, maybe a better term is WELFARE, which sounds even scarier!
Sure, there are some bright days and bright spotsā¦Hambletonian Day, Breeders Crown events, Kentucky Futurity, Little Brown Jug, etcā¦a few othersā¦
And, sure, there are a few tracks holding their ownā¦but not many.
Itās a reality check that, on some racing programs, purses are more than the pari-mutuel handleā¦or close to it!
Yes, tomorrow will be OKā¦and the day after that and the day after that.
But what will happen when these casino companies look at the figures and see that, after paying out $100,000 or $150,000 or more in daily purses, the pari-mutuel handle supports ONE-TENTH of that amount, with shareholders breathing down their necks for results with the reality that scrapping racing will add numbers to their bottom line?
What happens when the Florida fiasco begins to spread throughout the landā¦THEN WHAT?
Add to that, the breeders are looking for speed and racing careers only for two-year-olds and three-year-olds (maybe stretching to four in a few places) as that is what spurs those yearling prices.
There is now evidence of shorter racing careers for our four-legged friends these days and that will result in shorter fields behind the gate.
Less and less aged horses racing will mean less and less races and shorter field.
Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky are OKā¦Pennsylvania seems OKā¦for now.
The great Meadowlands isā¦well, the great Meadowlands.
But shorter fields lead to shorter mutuel prices, and the result is an attrition of our already waning fan base.
We are in trouble when a $50 win bet knocks down a horse from 6 to 1 to 5 to 2.
Instead of trickledown economics helping those underneath the top echelon, this is having an opposite effect for those trainers not, say, in the top 100.
Whatās that mean? It means that the other 900 or so are left holding the bagāand not a bag of oats!
Way back when, I mean WAY back when, in North America, harness racing was conducted in over 1,300 venuesā¦YES, ONE-THOUSAND THREE HUNDRED.
It covered cities from āAā to āZā
Abilene, KAN,Ā Bardstown, KY,Ā Calgary, Canada,Ā Delaware, OH,Ā Earlville, IL.,Ā Fargo, ND.,Ā Green Bay, WI.,Ā Halifax, N.S. Can.,Ā Independence, IA.,Ā Junction City, KAN.,Ā Kent. WA.,Ā Little Rock, AR.,Ā Memphis, TN.,Ā Napa, CA.,Ā Ogden, UT.,Ā Potsdam, NY.,Ā Quincy, CA.,Ā Reno, NV.,Ā San Angelo, TX.,Ā Turner Falls, MA.,Ā Ulrichsville, OH.,Ā Vischerās Ferry, NY.,Ā Walla Walla, WA.,Ā Xenia, OH.,York, NE.,Ā Zanesville, OH., just to sample a few.
Those days are gone forever, and weād better get busy and see the light that TIME, no matter which way it be looked at it, is NOT on our side!
May The Horse Be With You
by John Berry, for Harnesslink