Gil Winston: Meadowlands analysis

The objective of this analysis is to identify harness racing horses via plus or minus scores that are not identifiable in the past performances. Horses whose races are accurately captured in the past performances are not captured here, regardless of how well or poorly they may have raced.

Consider all races without comment as WUSIWUG – an acronym for What U See (in past performances) Is What U Get. Some races may identify multiple horses that are scored, while other races are clearly defined in the past performances, and no horse is scored. These unscored horses all had clearance in the pivotal part of the stretch, and no uncharted exertion earlier.

Scores do not indicate must-bet or must-toss the next time they race as other handicapping factors come into play. But these scores give the bettor a huge edge in what is frequently the most important factor when making betting decisions and many scored horses have been coming in with generous payouts in their next races.

The highest $2 win payout was for VANDALISM who paid $188 for a $2 wager on 12-29 at The Meadowlands. He had been scored with “clear too late with some pace” in his previous start there. (HARNESSLINK.COM article published 12-29) That was the biggest price, but there have been many long prices. There have been a number of cold exactas, and two cold trifectas when three scored horses ended up in the same race.

You cannot assume scored horses will race the following week. Here is the best way to profit from this analysis. On the day you are wagering on races, and see Freehold or Meadowlands in the past performances, click here This will open up the list of all articles. For horses that show lines that pique your interest, find the article that analyzes the races for that day, then search for the horse. If the horse has a positive score, you know the horse is better than the pp line shows. Click on other weeks that the horse raced if the most recent race does not complete the story for you. This will give you access to all analysis.

Tracking shippers is not part of this analysis, but out-of-town winners are identified on occasion.

It’s June and the 2yos are making their appearance. Many players have no intention of playing any 2yos until they have raced a few times. Many players love playing the early 2yos because they believe they offer the most value. Historically, the first week of 2yo races give a big edge to the favorites. More of the same in the second week, but a few more longshots sneak in. Starting with the third time out, the bombs start falling regularly. But that’s history. We all know the line about the past not necessarily predicting the future. Consider putting scored horses in your virtual stables for when they go out of state for stake races.

This week’s winners that were identified in previous analyses

M’lands                6-7         Race 10                PERICULUM                      $ 2.80    Second straight win after +2 score

M’lands                6-8         Race 2                  APERTIF                              $ 4.80    Scored +2 on 5-24, beaten by 1-2 winner in last

M’lands                6-8        Race 4                 PINEBUSHDRAGONROLL$  2.20  Sixth M’lands win since being scored at M’lands in March

M’lands               6-8         Race 9                  ABSOLUTE POWER          $ 6.20    Scored +2 in last

M’lands               6-8         Race 12                FLAMBOYANCE                $13.00   Scored +2 two weeks ago

Meadowlands Qualifiers 6-8      

*** 17 qualifiers – the first 13 qualifiers are all 2yo races. Re-emphasize, the scores are in relation to what the form says. Horses not scored should be evaluated per their performance as charted.  ***

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             3 HAPPY JACK B                1             Strong last 1/16

1             4 CIVILIAN DRONE           2             Entire 1^st quarter on outside. Was moving well, when #3 moved into him. That move Seemed to take the fight out of this 2yo.

2             1 CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS 1       Broke on top for no reason – bad, but recovery was excellent

2             3 BEAUTIFUL SIGHT         1             Plenty along cones

2             5 TIME FOR LANDING     1             Accelerated when clear

3             5 AMAZON FASHION       2             Under strong hold down the stretch

AMAZON FASHION REPLAY

4             1 SUPER CHAPTER            1             Strong acceleration when clear, very fast last 100 yards

6             6 TORRISI                           1             Accelerated when clear

7             3 MARYLAND                    2             Very strong after horse was clear

9             5 WORLD BEATER            2             No moves until race over, the most pace

10           5 BLUE ONYX                     1             Tough call. Bore in and appeared to have more along cones.

12           2 SWEET ODDS                 1             Blocked through stretch

14           2 CALATRAVA                    2             Behind breaker, unable to drive

>>> video Meadowlands qualifier race 14 <<<

16           2 NO WORDS                    1             Blocked until too late. Had more.

17           4 KEN HANOVER               1             Had more.

Gaitway Qualifiers 6-10

*** 12 qualifiers – the first 8 qualifiers are all 2yo races ***

*** For those who look to wager on 2yos during the summer months, you will see the addition of qualifiers on farm tracks. The relative performances from each farm track change every year. You need to track which horses perform the best coming from each farm. You will find that wagering on 2yos that raced on farms that produced the best will then be the source for many long price winners. It is not unusual for Svandstedt 2yos who do not shine in the morning, shine at night. Keep track of other trainers who do the same – this year.

1             2 RAILROAD STATION      1             Game when challenged

3             3 GANNON’S VELOUCITY 1           Strong finish

3             4 TOM HORN                    1             Had more

4             1 SAFE TALK                       1             Strong recovery after break

5             1 BLOWN CALL                 2             Impressive

5             4 CHEERS HANOVER        1             Very good in stretch

8             2 MS PRADA                      1             Rough, broke and green before start, big finish

9             5 TAKING THE MIKI A      -1           Appeared to hang, but a tough call. Beware of short price.

9             6 SILKY STRIDE                  1             Game for 2^nd, compared to the #5 hanging?

11           4 FOR THE WORLD           -1           Well beaten before the break

12           3 VALUE CREDIT               1             Was best in back of field.

Meadowlands 6-7          

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

Races 1 thru 6 were all WUSIWUG. Short fields and multiple breakers were the main reasons.

7             7 ONLY ONE COSMO        1             Will be much better after Ake & Co. teach her manners.

7             9 SASSY ZAZA                     1             In tight. No clearance. Appeared to have more.

7             10 ST PAULI GIRL              2             Blocked with plenty, probable winner if clear

ST PAULI GIRL REPLAY

10           3 NELSONBRITEEAGLE NO 2         Lost gait near 5/8, then flew the last 1/16

11           10 CORSINI A                     1             Most pace late

Meadowlands 6-8

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             10 STOLEN ART                 1             Blocked with pace

4             5 MISTER SPOT A             1             Shut off, checked, then flattened

6             3 LITE N SWEET                1             Blocked with some pace

11           2 INTEREST FREE A           1             Clear too late with pace

11           8 BET A BUNDLE               1             Clear too late with pace

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink