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Home USA

Gil Winston: Big M & Magicial Acres analysis

19 June 2024
in USA, Top 4
by Gil Winston
0

The objective of this analysis is to identify harness racing horses via plus or minus scores that are not identifiable in the past performances. Horses whose races are accurately captured in the past performances are not captured here, regardless of how well or poorly they may have raced.

Consider all races without comment as WUSIWUG – an acronym for What U See (in past performances) Is What U Get. Some races may identify multiple horses that are scored, while other races are clearly defined in the past performances, and no horse is scored. These unscored horses all had clearance in the pivotal part of the stretch, and no uncharted exertion earlier.

Scores do not indicate must-bet or must-toss the next time they race as other handicapping factors come into play. But these scores give the bettor a huge edge in what is frequently the most important factor when making betting decisions and many scored horses have been coming in with generous payouts in their next races.

The highest $2 win payout was for VANDALISM who paid $188 for a $2 wager on 12-29 at The Meadowlands. He had been scored with “clear too late with some pace” in his previous start there. (HARNESSLINK.COM article published 12-29) That was the biggest price, but there have been many long prices. There have been a number of cold exactas, and two cold trifectas when three scored horses ended up in the same race.

You cannot assume scored horses will race the following week. Here is the best way to profit from this analysis. On the day you are wagering on races, and see Freehold or Meadowlands in the past performances, click here. This will open up the list of all articles. For horses that show lines that pique your interest, find the article that analyzes the races for that day, then search for the horse. If the horse has a positive score, you know the horse is better than the pp line shows. Click on other weeks that the horse raced if the most recent race does not complete the story for you. This will give you access to all analysis.

Tracking shippers is not part of this analysis, but out-of-town winners are identified on occasion.

It’s June and the 2yos are making their appearance. Many players have no intention of playing any 2yos until they have raced a few times. Many players love playing the early 2yos because they believe they offer the most value. Historically, the first week of 2yo races give a big edge to the favorites. More of the same in the second week, but a few more longshots sneak in.

Starting with the third time out, the bombs start falling regularly. But that’s history. We all know the line about the past not necessarily predicting the future. Consider putting scored horses in your virtual stables for when they go out of state for stake races.

This week’s winners that were identified in previous analyses

*** All quiet among hidden form horses this week. The charts have been telling the story. One unusual trend has been the power of Woodbine shippers. In the past, their value has dissipated as the weather got warmer. So far, they have been powerful. Pocono shippers have been doing well, but that usually ends when the weather heats up.

M’lands Race 7                                WINNER’S BET                 $ 2.60    Scored +2 in qualifier as he easily went passed IT’S ACADEMIC

Meadowlands Qualifiers 6-15   

*** 18 qualifiers – the first 13 qualifiers are all 2yo races. Re-emphasize, the scores are in relation to what the form says. Horses not scored should be evaluated per their performance as charted.  ***

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

3             2 FALLOUT                         1             Green, but strong last 100 yards

3             3 FLOOR IT FREDDIE        1             Forced to check in stretch, then recovered well

7             6 TAGALONG                      1             Very wide, then strong on own in stretch

8             6 ANATIVENEWYORKER  1             Lost a lot of ground drifting 10-wide in stretch, then surged at wire

9             5 MARGARETA HANOVER 1          Lined up behind winner with trot

10           6 ELAINE T S                      1             Picked it up after getting clearance in stretch

*12        1 GO BOOM                       1             Impressive stretch run

*12        4 CAMERA MAN               1             Impressive stretch run

* Two impressive 2yo trotters

CAMERA MAN REPLAY

13           2 MR WALNER FASHION 1             Accelerated when clear

13           5 GRIFFIN KRONOS S       1             Lineup

18           1 STONEBRIDGE HELIOS 1             Had a lot more

Magic Acres Qualifiers 6-12       

*** 12 qualifiers – the first 8 qualifiers are all 2yo races ***

Meadowlands 6-14        

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             2 ATTA BOY DAN               1             Drifted and lost ground after half

1             4 CLOUDBREAK                 2             Pulled early and pressed through :55 middle half

1             5 UNCLE COZ                     1             Wide passed the 1/8, then pushed through :55 middle half

6             6 HERODOTUS                  1             Seemed to have problems getting straight in stretch

6             7 HASTY BID                      1             Capable of more

7             4 SPY CRAFT                      1             Most pace late

8             8 COOL PAPA BELL           1             Long brush to top before half

13           6 WOODMERE HARRIET 1             Tight quarters, some pace

14           2 THE THING IS                 1             Appeared to have a lot of trot, then broke

14           7 LIFE ON THE BLUF         1             Too big a lead, could not reaccelerate faced with late challenge

LIFE ON THE BLUF REPLAY

15           8 PRINCESS GLYDANA      1             Never clear

15           9 CUTTING HUMOR         1             Clear too late with pace

15           10 DREAM PILLAR            1             3-wide almost quarter, parked then closed in stretch

Meadowlands 6-15

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             1 HUNT YOU DOWN        1             Checked and lost momentum

1             2 LACHIE MAGUIRE N     2             Winner if not taken out by interference

1             3 JUST A ROCKED MAN   1             Checked and lost momentum

1             5 MEET THE CREEPER     1             Taken out by interference

MEET THE CREEPER REPLAY

2             6 GAZOO                            3             That score only applies if he gets one of the regular drivers in his next race. Give him +1 if Kimmelman remains on him. Let’s just say, never clear for this race.

Race 3 thru 8 all WUSIWUG

9             10 BET A BUNDLE            2             Most pace through tight quarters in stretch

10           2 STONEBRIDGE REEF     1             Blocked with pace between

12           1 SEE YOU FRIDAY            1             Blocked along cones

13           3 UNO MAS BLUE CHIP   1             Lost ground and position before 5/8th, best when he got going

14           5 WAVES OF FIRE A          1             Blocked with some pace

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink

Tags: Gil WinstonMagical AcresThe MeadowlandsUnited States Harness Racing
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