Gil Winston: Big M post-race analysis series

The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the harness racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race?  In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.

The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter?

In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost in the around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.

One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4^th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.

This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program.  The names of the horses receiving plus, and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.

While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (note, I said competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge. How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.

Expect to see charts from qualifying races where the tracks provide videos of them online. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.

*** Update – The Meadowlands is closed for harness racing until 10/20. You will want to access these charts if these horses do not race until then. In addition, keep an eye out for these horses as they race at other venues. In addition, many of these horses will move to Freehold during the break. Freehold will race 3 days a week until The Meadowlands reopens. We will add the Freehold charts during that period and keep them going when they go back to two days as a complement to the Meadowlands charts after they reopen.

Meadowlands Post-Race Friday, Sept. 8, 2023

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

2             1 DEVASTATE                     1             Behind breaker in stretch, unable to stretch out, more trot

4             5 ROBINHOOD                  2             Unable to fully extend while weaving

4             7 REGGIANITO                  2             Checked when 5-horse came into him, break on reacceleration

5             6 ALLAMBIE A                   1             Race was over before he cleared and stormed home

5             10 P L PORTIA                   1             Very strong from way back

6             7 AVELLINO                       2             Multi-check stretch, most pace when clear

8             4 MISS I LA                         1             Never clear with trot

13          3 GRACE BAY                     1             Most pace when clear

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

Meadowlands Post-Race Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             9 HARRY HANOVER          1             Clear too late, had more

2             10 BAILEYS ROCK N         1             Most pace in lane

4             8 LINCOLN BOULEVARD  1             Never clear

4             9 THNDRFRMTHETHRON1            Lost many lengths while wide last turn

5             2 MANALOU                      1             Had to weave to avoid breaker

5             3 ZEPPOLE HANOVER      1             Looked like winner if flat

5             5 HUNGRYFORVICTORY  1             Troubled first quarter

6             7 GALLIE GETAWAY          1             Wide passed 1/8, then clear too late in stretch

7             1 DANDY IDEA                   1             Easy winner if clear in time

7             5 IN NEVDA N                   1             Tight quarters, more pace in stretch

7             9 BANK SEA                        1             Most pace in stretch

8             3 HEY HEY DBAY               1             Blocked with pace

9             2 BELMONT ROYALE N    1             Tight quarters, never able to extend

11           9 REACTOR NOW A          3             4-wide 1/8, then wide last turn before brush

12           3 SONOFAMISTERY          2             Long 2^nd quarter, see additional comment below**

14           3 MIDNIGHT DAY             1             Cut off in stretch with pace, then stopped. Tough read.

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

** The track turned sloppy in the 12^th race. SONOFAMISTERY did not leave well, which required a long second quarter. The pocket horse pulled and drifted very wide. The drifting horse wins more often than not on an off track for three reasons. First, the footing is better wider. Second, the pulling horse started a new gear which he will keep down the stretch. But more importantly, the horse on top does not sense he is being challenged and will not dig in.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink