Gil Winston: Date handicapping and why it is critical?

What is date handicapping and why is it critical? As opposed to thoroughbred racing where gaps between starts are commonplace, harness racing standardbreds generally race once a week. It is that regularity which makes this game the best gambling game on Earth.

When a horse races in consecutive weeks, there is a high probability that the horse will have the same form, plus or minus other handicapping factors. When a horse misses time, you need to give your best effort in guessing why. Here are the top reasons:

1. The horse was sick, lame or injured.
2. The horse changed track, or class, so there was no race available a week later.
3. The race in the class to which the horse belonged, was not on the condition sheet, or did not fill.
4. The owner could not get to the races, so the trainer was told not to enter the horse.
5. The trainer forgot to enter the horse.
6. The trainer decided the horse needed a rest. (Sometimes that is what the trainer tells the owner but see #5 for what actually happened.)
7. The race or races were scheduled but cancelled. (The tracks should provide that information on the programs, but they don’t.)
8. Some horses race better with a short layoff, and gaps are intentional and good.

As you see, horseplayers can never be sure why there is a gap between races, but assumptions must be made if you are wagering on a race where one or more horses have gaps in their past performance lines. The strategy that follows is based on what is probably going on. The “but what if I’m wrong” approach is the road to disaster. Knowing the history of a trainer who has success with horses that have been racing after a layoff is a valid reason for varying the strategy.

I generally have no problem playing horses that race again in under 15 days. It used to be an ice-cold decision that a 15-day layoff is over the line and consider the horse off at least that amount of time was unplayable. However, there are more extenuating circumstances now. You used to assume a 3-day box and if the horse does not come back within the 14 days, assume something is wrong.

Now some tracks draw multiple cards on one day, so the trainer may believe that the horse is racing within two weeks, but the track says otherwise. Another issue with the greater than 14-day layoff may be because a certain class has too many entries (usually the cheapest class offered by the track), but that is rare these days. But you do have to be diligent in uncovering this condition.

The strongest condition for ignoring layoffs is with the highest class of horses. They are the horses that win with extended layoffs. However, they also offer the most value for removing from consideration.

Now that we’ve considered the exceptions, ignore them unless you feel strongly that one of the exceptions apply. Emphasize, you have strong evidence that the exceptions are real. There has never been a sure thing, and there never will be. But if you follow date handicapping rules above all others, your rewards will be great.

• Do not play horses who have not raced in 15 days.
• If the horse races less efficiently off the layoff than its previous start, ASSUME the horse will race back to its previous form in its subsequent start.

One might say that making that assumption is nothing more than a leap of faith. True, but that faith is based on great results over the years. Now let’s consider scratches causing the gap between races.

• Scratched – judges. Ignore the date gap and consider the horse playable.
• Scratched – injured. If the horse races back within a week or two after the scratch, ignore the scratch. If you have played ball in your life, you know when the injury is healed, you are good to go.
• Scratched – lame. Thid is similar to scratched – injured, but you might want to take a look at the horse on the track.
• Scratched – sick. Do not play. There are 3 exceptions. 1 – If the trainer does not bring the horse back to the races the following week, there is a chance the horse is over the illness. 2 – On a half mile track, horses are frequently scratched-sick when they draw the 8-hole. 3 – This one is a doozy, but we are seeing it more and more frequently. When a horse is scratched – sick, and the next race is in a new barn, assume the horse was not sick. Why those situations are not considered scratched – judges are beyond me. But it is always scratched – sick.

Qualifiers were covered in a previous article, but let’s apply it to date handicapping. Should the length of time off before the qualifier be considered a factor in deciding how to evaluate the qualifying horse for wagering? For the most part, no. I will say that horses with more than 6-month layoffs prior to qualifying races rarely win, and if it is a year or more, it is almost never. The horse does not know that it is a qualifying race and should be evaluated based on its performance in the race.

One additional point about qualifying races. If the driver in the qualifier is there as a driver-qualifier, or the trainer of the horse who rarely if ever drives in a race qualifies the horse, expect the horse to race much better in its next betting race. In fact, a trainer driving his own horse in a qualifier is enough reason to play the horse when next it races.

Power to the punter.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink