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The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the harness racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race? In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.
The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter?
In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost in the around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.
One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.
This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program. The names of the horses receiving plus, and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.
While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (note, I said competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge. How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.
Expect to see charts from qualifying races where the tracks provide videos of them online. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.
*** Update – The Meadowlands is closed for harness racing until 10/20. Freehold will race 3 days a week until The Meadowlands reopens. Even if you are not interested in wagering on Freehold, these charts will prove invaluable for opening week at The Meadowlands and watch out for these horses that ship elsewhere.
Freehold Raceway (9-28-23) analysis
Race Horse Score Analysis
2 2 UNCLE COZ 1 Used hard until just before quarter
2 8 MAGAZINE THEME 3 Moving strong, then moved behind wall, winner if clear
3 2 SWEET TACTICS -1 Finished third because rest of field broke
6 4 SERENDIPITY 1 Looked like winner, if kept flat
8 7 BIG STRETCH MARK 2 Full of pace when clear
9 3 OOH REAL GOOD 1 Shuffled out, then good pace between in stretch
9 5 BARGAIN SHOPPER 1 4-wide first eighth, then long brush in fast quarter
10 2 GETAWAY -2 Perfect trip, walked passed horse who was parked the mile
Freehold Raceway 9-29-23 analysis
Race Horse Score Analysis
1 2 LAZARUS GIRL 1 Used hard to lead, then pressed hard
1 5 JOSSIE JAMES A -1 Tripped out to victory
2 3 THAT’SMYTYPE 1 Lineup in stretch, maybe more
6 6 TACTICAL LORI 2 Too far back, probable 2nd place finish, then broke
7 6 EBULLIENT -2 Finished 2nd because rest of field broke
8 7 NATURAL KEMP 1 Most trot when clear
11 6 TWIN B ALLURE 1 Behind dead horse before got going with good pace
12 5 HOLD MY TIARA -1 Benefitted from speed duel
Freehold Raceway 9-20-23 analysis
Race Horse Score Analysis
1 1 STONE COLD SAVAGE 2 ** Won despite ground losing move before half
2 3 CHARGER BLUE CHIP 2 *** See explanation below
4 8 ARQUE HANOVER -1 Benefitted from great trip
5 7 FLASHY DUDE 2 4-wide 1/8, spent little time on rail before hard first over
8 1 FRANCO NANDOR N 1 Forced fast pace, hung tough
8 3 BB LUCKY BOY 2 3-wide almost 3/8 of a mile in crazy fractions
10 7 SLIP THE HUNDY N 2 Had more, can step up against better
11 3 GAIUS CRASTINUS 1 Shuffled out, good pace when clear
13 3 ALLINDOTIME 2 Race was long over before he got clear with plenty of trot
* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.
** Backing up to give a tuck before the half, and then coming first over equals a loss off two lengths plus momentum.
*** Frankie Boy appeared to be gapping severely before 3/8 pole, so Siegeleman tried to step around him with CHARGER BLUE CHIP. But FRANKIE BOY went on and the two horses were effectively in their own race far behind the leader. By the time the leader stopped, CHARGER BLUE CHIP had already run his race. Game to finish second.
by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink
