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The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the harness racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race? In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.
The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth?
Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter? In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.
One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.
This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program. The names of the horses receiving plus and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.
While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge. How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.
Expect to see charts from qualifying races where the tracks provide videos of them online. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.
*** Update – The Meadowlands is closed for harness racing until 10/20. Freehold will race 3 days a week until The Meadowlands reopens. Even if you are not interested in wagering on Freehold, these charts will prove invaluable for opening week at The Meadowlands and watch out for these horses that ship elsewhere.
Freehold Raceway Analysis for October 5, 2023
Race Horse Score Analysis
2 8 WESTERN BAYAMA 1 Weaved to rail in stretch with pace
3 2 SEEN HERE 2 Uncharted break las turn, good recovery in tight quarters
3 3 BET ON MAC 1 Most pace after being shuffled out
5 4 INSIDE EXPRESS 1 Probable winner if flat, will pick up on big track
6 3 ROCKIN ROGER 1 Shut off with pace
8 7 SHARED BY ME 1 Big move after 5/8, 4-wide last turn
Freehold Raceway Analysis for October 6, 2023
Race Horse Score Analysis
2 8 MIAMI SEELSTER 1 3-wide last turn, some additional pace late
3 6 BANGIN IN THE HALL 1 Forced wide behind dead cover last turn, some late trot
4 7 NOT SO EVIL 1 Forced wide behind dead cover last turn, some late pace
5 8 ELOISE 2 Lost momentum entering stretch, game recovery
6 3 OH LINA 2 Shuffled to last, most trot when free
6 4 ALL RISE 1 Shuffled and too far back when clear
8 8 SOMETHING REEL 1 Lineup with some pace
9 2 CAPICOLA 2 Wait for big track
10 3 ROSALINE 2 Expect a lot more
11 8 EEATAMS TRAUMA 1 Did trip out, but would have won if clear sooner
Freehold Raceway Analysis for October 7, 2023
Race Horse Score Analysis
2 5 TERRE HAUTE 1 Tripped out, but last 1/16 was strong
3 5 NERIDAS WISH 1 Behind gapper before ½, compromised chances
4 3 SKYWAY BILLY 1 Lineup inside
5 4 PULL THROUGH 2 3-wide almost entire last 3/8
7 1 JUMPING JAKE 1 Estimate loss of 2-3 lengths due to interference
8 4 SWEET IDEAL 1 4-wide last quarter
8 5 KRAKEN SEELSTER 1 Caught in Blindswitch in stretch, blocked late
9 5 ALWAYS A AWAY 1 Interference caused 3-wide entire clubhouse turn
10 8 SLIP THE HUNDY N 2 4-wide entire first turn in 26:3 1st quarter
11 1 MY BIG KADILLAC -1 Benefitted from breaker
11 7 FASHION ON A STAR 2 Long ‘catch the field’ before start, 4-wide last turn
12 7 EAST BEACH 1 Tight quarters on rail, unable to extend until too late
* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.
by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink
