Gil Winston Freehold Raceway post-race analysis

The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race?  In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.

The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter? In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored.

It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.

One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4^th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.

This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program.  The names of the horses receiving plus, and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.

While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge.

How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.

*** Update – The Meadowlands is closed for harness racing until 10/20. Freehold is no longer racing three days a week.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink

Freehold Raceway Analysis for October 12, 2023

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             5 ODDS ON BOCA RATON1           3-wide entire first turn in fast first quarter

3             5 BET ON MAC                  1             Expect improvement on bigger track

4             5 ROMA AMOR                 1             3-wide entire first turn in fast first quarter

4             7 LAZARUS GIRL               1             Behind dead cover, long 3-wide 5/8 to top of turn

6             8 DERECHO                        1             Too far back when clear, some pace

7             7 FUSSPOT                         1             Too far back when clear, some pace

8             6 CHIEF CORLEONE          1             Uncharted long 3-wide brush before 5/8 past 3q

Freehold Raceway Analysis for October 13, 2023

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

1             4 AINTNOHOLLABACKGRL-1         Inherited 2^nd when pocket horse drifted at ¾ pole

1             1 THAT’SMYTYPE              1             Horse drifted at ¾ pole, then held position

3             6 MAYDAYMAVERICKHOPE 1        Lineup in stretch

4             7 HOLD ME CLOSER         2             Very wide the first turn

5             7 ME THREE                       1             Lineup in stretch

7             7 DC ANNA                        2             Lost 5 lengths on break, then blocked with trot in lane

Freehold Raceway Analysis for October 14, 2023

Race      Horse                                   Score     Analysis

4             5 SLIPIN SKIP                     1             Shuffled out, clear too late

7             6 STEWS WATCHING        1             Forced to check late in stretch

11           7 LA MAGIC                       3             Chart wrong. Good close. Only lost by 1 length.

12           3 SPIRIT OF TRUTH          1             3-wide last turn

12           8 TOTO HANOVER            2             Behind gapper at 5/8, behind dead cover on last turn

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.