Gil Winston: Keys to handicapping success

Overplayed Angles

Each angle I define here as overplayed is just that – overplayed. There are times when each of them may be a key angle in the decision-making process, but those instances are rare.  In fact, every scrap of information provided on the harness racing program may be a key to a wager on the rarest of occasions. I have made wagers based on the owner. There was actually a case of driving colors that affected my play – sort of.

When gambling on Pompano Park races many moons ago, I spent the winter months in a one-story horseshoe- shaped apartment complex, and across the courtyard from me was one of the trainer-drivers. If he had a horse in to go at night, and my opinion was not strong on his horse either way, I would stick my nose out and peer across the grass. If I saw that his colors were hanging outside the door in a plastic bag with the name of the local dry cleaner on them, I knew he was anticipating a win photo that night.

Similar logic is used at the track in observation of the wife of a driver. If she usually comes to the track in jeans and on this particular night she is dressed to the nines. Yes, even the serious player can have fun at the track.

Earnings/Back Class

This angle usually has a strong influence on the odds. I rarely use it or even care about it. Horses go in and out of form, and it is the current form that matters the most. It is not uncommon for a horse with consecutive bad races to drop in class and face horses he would have destroyed a couple of months prior. Even if his recent races are non-competitive with the field he is facing, he is bound to go off very short odds because he has the back class. Looking at the earnings offers the same deception.

One angle has changed through the years. It used to be that betting against young horses with huge earnings that are now facing older horses for the first time are short odds and were auto-tosses. These days, trainers have horses peaking at very young ages, and young horses are more likely to be competitive when they face older horses. While many of them are not auto-tosses, form still trumps earnings, and the horse with the highest earnings will always be overbet.

Where earnings and back class may come into play is when poor form can be explained away by date handicapping (as explained in a past article). In this case you want to consider how a horse might race if date handicapping makes you believe the horse may return to form.

Awful Win Percentages

How many times have I heard, “How could you play that horse? He hasn’t won a race all year,” as I head to the cashier to collect my winnings. Maybe because I never consider a horse’s long-term history. I have seen horses slow down instead of going past a horse in the stretch, and horses pull themselves up when victory was in their grasp. But that only matters if they have done that recently, and I apply it to the current form. But if their recent form indicates that they are ready to win despite being oh for fifty, the bet goes in without the least bit of hesitation. As with all of the overplayed angles, this one is also outweighed by ‘what have you done for me lately.’

A poor win percentage is not a handicapping criterion. Ever.

Driver Choices

Of all the overplayed angles, this is the one that I consider playing the most. But it is still a very low percentage angle. I consider it when horses raced out of my sight, and with very young horses whose form is constantly changing. Emphasize – consider it. It will not necessarily alter my selection. Trainers are skilled trainers. Drivers are skilled drivers. Handicappers are skilled handicappers. Do not make the mistake of crisscrossing skills. Those who are regular readers of Inside-Harness should be aware of that. I trust my opinion of the outcome of a race over any trainer or driver.

Let us consider why so many driver choices are not really choices, and why we handicappers may be able to figure it out:

• The driver is a part owner of the horse;
• The driver has a history of driving regularly for the same trainer and/or owner;
• The horse won with the same driver, and he will likely stay with the same horse despite being offered a horse that seems more likely to win;
• The driver will give preference to the horse he drove poorly in last;
• The trainer saw the driver that he put down has other options, so he quickly changes to his second choice if he believes the driver he selected will choose elsewhere;
• Finally, the driver made some sort of verbal commitment to drive a certain horse for which we have no way of knowing.

I cannot end here without acknowledging that many players consider driver choice to be a key element in handicapping and that tracks acknowledge this by publishing the choices. Since the tracks acknowledge this truth, why don’t they complete the job for their customers? There are two elements needed. Why did the driver or trainer make the choice and then provide statistics. Both are easy to obtain with simple questions to the driver or trainer informing the track of their selection.

• Driver – Is this choice based on selection or commitment?
• Trainer – Is this choice based on your decision or did you hear from the driver about his choice?

Simple. Then choice or commitment should be added to the program. Then provide statistics based on two criteria based on actual choice.

• Win percentage;
• Percentage of times the chosen horse beat horses not chosen.

The customer is telling them that driver choice is important, so help them out. In fact, I am sure the drivers would be interested in how well they do with their choices.

Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)

My wagering platform always informs me when horses with whom I had previously won, are racing. They assume I am like most FOMO horseplayers and must play the horse “just in case” it wins again.  How many of you FOMO horseplayers must bet on your friend’s horse when he races? How many of you have the strength to play a horse against your friend’s horse while knowing your friend’s horse has a chance, but another horse has more value.

In capital letters, GAMBLING IS NOT A POPULARITY CONTEST.

I am perfectly capable of congratulating a friend whose horse beat the horse I preferred, while hearing, “I knew my horse couldn’t lose today.” I could produce a long list of FOMO wagers relating to meaningful numbers, names, “horses that owe me money,” etc., that terrorize the minds of otherwise good handicappers. I once told a friend who made a small wager based on some FOMO excuse, that if I ever wasted two dollars on a FOMO bet on a race where I have invested a thousand dollars, I would have to kill myself because that would mean my brain had already died. He was stunned. I was dead serious.

Final Important Note

These handicapping thoughts only apply to those who bet on the races with the intent of making money. It has no bearing, whatsoever, on those who simply consider harness racing an enjoyable night out while watching exciting races, and if they should win money, that’s just gravy. Please continue to bet on your grandmother’s telephone number for the pick-4 or superfecta, the names of your children and whatever other bet gives you pleasure – and get lucky!

Power to the punter.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink