Gil Winston: Post-race Analysis Series

The serious handicapper needs information beyond what is available in the racing program. When you look at the racing program, you need to know what is relevant and what is not. Does the program accurately reflect what happened in the race?  In this series, we will be providing analysis not found anywhere else.

The most frequent unexposed excuse of which the handicapper is familiar is “blocked with pace(trot).” But there is so much more. The charts give you quarter times, but most races are won and lost in eighths and sixteenths. Was the horse with the fastest last quarter also the horse that was the fastest in the last sixteenth? Did the horse alter course, or check, at different periods during the last quarter?

In fact, was the horse compromised during one of the earlier quarters for a portion of a quarter. Ground lost in the around the first turn (an eighth of a mile on a half mile track, longer on bigger tracks) is too often ignored. It is not unusual for a horse from a bad post at the Meadowlands to be stuck three and four-wide for an eighth of a mile, while going nowhere, then being on the rail before the first quarter. The chart does not reflect that journey.

One of the best efforts of the great Niatross was during a race in which he finished 4th at The Meadowlands. The first quarter time did not reflect how fast he left the gate before a speed break near the eighth pole, nor did it identify the incredible brush between the quarters. In this series we will identify race efforts where the race program is lacking. Values assigned will be opinions, based on years of successful wagering experiences, and values will receive a comment for the reader to review.

This is the way it works. No comment is assigned to horses whose performance is accurately portrayed in the program.  The names of the horses receiving plus, and minus scores will be listed and an explanation for the score will be included.

While this is seriously important information, betting on or against horses only because of these values would be a mistake. Horses move up and down against competition (note, I said competition which does not always mean racing class), the trainer of the horses rated may have caught fire or gone cold since the last effort, driver changes and the myriad other angles that go into wagering decisions. But this is the definitive value angle. This is your edge. How you use the information is your decision. I highly recommend saving these charts for future reference for cases where horse suffer multiple excuse lines after the races from these charts.

Expect to see charts from qualifying races where the tracks provide videos of them online. I consider qualifier charts even more valuable. Sadly, there are a lot fewer qualifiers than in the past, and online qualifiers for view are not available from most tracks. An explanation of why qualifiers are critical will be provided in a future article.

*** Update – The Meadowlands is closed for harness racing until 10/20. Freehold will race 3 days a week until The Meadowlands reopens. Even if you are not interested in wagering on Freehold, these charts will prove invaluable for opening week at The Meadowlands and watch out for these horses that ship elsewhere.

Freehold Raceway (9/14/23) Analysis

Race       Horse                                    Score     Analysis

1             1 DEDENUTO A                  -2            No pace before the break

2             5 GENTLEMENSATITUDE 2             Too far back before getting clearance – easily beat cover

5             5 CANDY BOMBER           1             Wide entire first turn, parked almost to quarter

7             2 SHINY BLACK BEAMER 3             Completely shuffled out of race

8             4 IN ITALIA                          1             Followed gapper too long

6             6 A GOOD CHARDONNAY1           Big brush into winner

Freehold Raceway (9/15/23) Analysis

Race       Horse                                    Score     Analysis

1             5 BRICKYARD BEACON    1             3-wide entire turn, tuck before quarter, clear late with pace

1             6 JOSSIE JAMES N             1             Very wide entire first turn in very fast quarter

1             7 SWEET MOVE                 -2            Found perfect trip behind winner

7             2 CANDY BOMBER           1             Wide entire first turn, parked almost to quarter

7             2 THE BOXER                      1             Caught behind breaker at top of stretch, forced to pull up

7             3 JEKYLL N  HYDE              2             Clear too late with most trot

8             7 IF NOT ME WHO            1             Too far back before clear to trot wide

9             5 TEAM COLORS               1             Strong brush between quarters

10           6 CAUGHT YA LOOKING 2             Caught 3-wide entire first turn, then 3-wide entire last quarter

10           7 LANDIA                             2             Never clear with pace

11           8 PANTY LINE                     1             3-wide entire first turn, 3-wide entire last turn

 Freehold Raceway (9/16/23) Analysis

Race       Horse                                    Score     Analysis

2             8 MAGAZINE THEME       -1            Followed winner

4             4 LIFES A PUZZLE              1             Plus bet only on a bigger track size

6             6 SWEET IDEAL                  1             Did not have a clear lane with pace

7             8 BIG STRETCH MARK     2             More than a quarter of a mile to get back to last, 3-wide last q

* Positive and negative numbers reflect variances from what the program tells you and will produce winners for you. While these numbers are critical handicapping angles, they do not necessarily negate other factors. There are other considerations when handicapping future races in which each horse participates. E.g., class changes, layoffs, post position, driver and trainer changes, etc.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink