Gil Winston: Properly identifying value

As we enter the twenty-fourth year of the twenty-first century, the inability of the harness racing handicapper to properly identify value continues with no end in sight. The days when all money was wagered on track and hawks (aka, shoulder surfers) followed suspected knowledgeable wagerers to the betting windows, have been gone for decades.

Even when the “smart money” subsequently moved to additional wagering facilities, clever hawks were known to follow known insider-knowledge betting gofers to their places of worship, aka, simulcast sites.

Enter the “In The Dark Ages.”

A significant percentage of wagers enter the betting pools via the world wide web. These wagers are invisible to the betting public and most of these wagers are placed within seconds of the pools being closed. The chances of the majority of the betting public knowing the final odds are zero. Even odds speculation based on solid handicapping criteria can be very wrong. Place and show pool opportunities that appear incredible also disappear in those final seconds.

What is the answer? Simply put, I have no idea. From a technological perspective, there are many valid ways to solve the problem. There is no reason to identify any of them because such activities cannot happen. Any process that severely impacts the ability to wager on harness racing in the last few seconds before the race starts would have a major negative impact on the betting handle. That is not even remotely acceptable.

So here we are. The search for value in your wagering decisions requires you to be blindfolded. We have all heard the complaints from customers who are distressed from only one side of the equation. The other side of the equation can also upset the applecart for the value seeker. The issue that disturbs most players has two parts.

The first example is when they bet a horse at certain odds, and when the horse wins, they are collecting significantly less than what they would have received at the odds that existed when they wagered. The second part effects players who follow the “smart money.” A horse they are considering (or not) is not being bet enough and should therefore be considered unplayable. The horse wins after a significant last second odds drop, and the would-be bettor is out to lunch.

The other side of the equation is equally dastardly for the value player. They may lay off horses because the odds are too short, only to see their odds jump significantly and witness a generous payoff because the late smart money chose a loser. Even though favorites win at a higher percentage than they did in the past, they still lose more than fifty percent of the time.

Plus, so many more favorites are odds-on offering appreciable wagering opportunities to the long shot players. Value is all perspective. Sometimes you may consider 4-5 odds to be a huge overlay on a horse expected to go off at 1-5. Then there is the horse sitting at 10-1 who is worth taking a flyer on at 30-1 or more. Cannot pull the trigger.

Some recent personal experiences highlight the frustrations and benefits. In the 11th race last week at The Meadowlands, the first thing I noted was a horse I considered a vulnerable favorite – WHOLE LOTTA LOU.  I identified four different horses as potential winners and determined that it was a race to bet gimmicks.

The horse I liked the best, REVOLVER N, was taking early money despite the 10-1 morning line. Not long enough odds as they moved to the gate. REVOLVER N wins, but I blow the exacta on the last step. As anticipated, WHOLE LOTTA LOU was up the track. However, he got all the smart money in the last second and went off at an obnoxious 1-2. So who was ignored? That’s right. REVOLVER N paid an incredible $42,80. I collect nothing.

I did not have to wait long for a similar experience. In the very next race. I considered logical favorite, RACING MONEY to be highly vulnerable. ROJAN’S WAY was my top choice, but again, beating the favorite was my key. ROJAN’S WAY is getting plenty of early money and I expected him to be second choice.  No win bet.

ROJAN’S WAY wins, and RACING MONEY barely holds on for second at 3-2 over the 15-1 SPORTS HERO who I needed for second. ROJAN’S WAY flew up in odds at the end and paid a more than generous $21.60 for those who bet win. I was not one of them.

But it goes both ways. This past Friday, I decided to handicap The Meadowlands backwards, and identified a horse in each of the last two races that I liked a lot. Being concerned about the late hour and knowing that sometimes life gets in the way, I bet the cold double early in the morning to negate the chance of not making the play late in the evening.

Based on the morning lines and that neither horse showed much on the program, I was anticipating the chance of a big payoff. Why did I like each horse? You’ll find the answers in previous and future articles. (Shameless plug). The first half of the double was won by TYRONSBITOFLEMON N, coming off a couple of seemingly unimpressive qualifiers and was 12-1 morning line. He won by open lengths – at 6-5! Say what?

There goes the big double. SWAN FLYER, in the second half of the double, was not going to be long odds.  It appeared that the double was not going to pay much. He won by even more lengths as second choice at 5-2. With daily double winners at those odds, I expected the daily double payoff to be in the teens. It paid a more than generous $36.80. While those were not the odds I expected when I made the wager in the morning, it was outstanding based on the final odds of the horses.

What is the answer? While harness racing still offers the single most bettor-advantageous gambling game on the planet, the challenges to success have increased dramatically. You need to anticipate value based on your own analysis. Do not allow yourself to be misled by early flashes. I promise that your anticipated final odds will frequently be wrong. In addition, there are the miscreants who enjoy misleading the public with large early wagers, only to remove them before the race starts.

Are value players merely the ghosts of Christmas past? Additional challenges increase with the abundance of wagering choices. They will be addressed in the next article featuring the Horizontal vs Vertical wagering choices confronting the bettors.

Power to the punter.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink