Handicapping in the dark

You always hear from the all-knowing seasoned harness racing handicappers who tell you of the importance of seeking value before you make your wagers. They tell you to form your own opinions of the appropriate odds and then invest your money on the overlays. To that observation we say, “Get out of the twentieth century, grandpa.” It is the 21st century.

I, too, weep for the ‘good old days’ when making money at the track was so much easier. There were so many profitable angles to apply then, that no longer apply now. But now is when we will be focusing on the value fallacy. Most of the handle funnels in across the Internet in the final seconds before the windows close (I use the term ‘windows close’ for the benefit of my other 20th century old timer buddies) followed by the final odds which appear after the race has started.

How nuts do you get when you hear fellow handicappers bewildered by an overbet outsider or under bet contender with two minutes before the race starts? Those odds frequently change drastically in the last few seconds.

While examples of handicapping in the darkness of 21st century harness racing abound, the germination of this article was formed by two recent personal experiences at The Meadowlands.

Because of the weekly Meadowlands racing analysis columns I write for Harnesslink, I decided to return to The Meadowlands Survival game. A few years ago, I received second place money as I was beaten by a whisker for first place money in the contest.  I also won the prize for most wins in the same contest.

Besides the prize money in two categories, this accomplishment won me a seat in the WHHC. Since the big money WHHC disappeared, I decided too much effort for too little reward was required to play the game properly, and I stopped playing. But now, since I am doing the analysis for all of the races for Harnesslink, there is no extra effort involved.

But the issue of finding value before any of the races begin is the problem. The final odds are a mystery. The late changes that go into wagering decisions are unknown when you make your contest selections. The vital information you require leading up to key races is non-existent before it is time to lay your money down.

Let’s go straight to the two races that highlight the plight of the value seeker. They involve two races that were in the Survival Game. In the 5th race of June 7, 3yo trotter DIPLOMACY was 7-2 morning line. He was deserving of the potential short odds as his final odds were only 5-2 against FOR JULY in his previous race. In that race, he looked like he was climbing over FOR JULY in the stretch when he made a break. You had to assume that whoever played him that night would follow up with him. There was no FOR JULY in this race, and the odds should be short.

That was his first 3yo race, and he broke in his last three races as a 2yo. Is this manners-challenged horse worth a short price? Not for me. I decided to look elsewhere for “value” for the contest since he might fall victim to his usual breaking habits at very short odds.

I landed on DEVASTATE who was 4-1 morning line. He made a nice move in a fast race at Vernon in his previous race but faded to third. Handicappers know that Vernon Downs is a very fast track, and one should tread cautiously before assuming any fast time there could be duplicated at The Meadowlands. While DEVASTATE had made breaks as a 2yo in the past, they were not as frequent as DIPLOMACY and I believed he would offer a better price in the contest. I made DEVASTATE my contest selection.

Just before the race started (a race I had no intention of risking any wagering money), DEVASTATE was the surprising favorite less than 2-1, and DIPLOMACY was something like 12-1. The odds were sure to change, but I bet a few dollars to win on DIPLOMACY since you never know final odds.

The odds did change – dramatically. But not in the direction I expected. Enormous win money came in on DEVASTATE and he dropped to an impossible 1-5. DIPLOMACY won and paid an equally impossible $60.20. Kudos to those who had him in the Survival Contest. I had my small win bet on him. The following week, DIPLOMACY returned to his breaking ways.

Now let’s turn our attention to the 4th race on June 15, a contest race. KINGSTON PANIC was the morning line favorite at 5-2. The week before he was bet strongly into GEMINI EXPRESS which I did not understand. I expected GEMINI EXPRESS to be a prohibitive favorite in that race, so I searched for profit in the exactas.

Because I expected GEMINI EXPRESS to be an odds-on favorite and saw no value using KINGSTON PANIC who was a solid second choice in exactas, I did not bet win on GEMINI EXPRESS, but only played exactas and left out KINGSTON PANIC. Turned out that both horses went off similar odds with GEMINI EXPRESS the slight favorite at 8-5 while KINGSTON PANIC was 2-1.

KINGSTON PANIC was closing in on GEMINI EXPRESS when he made a break. While I’m busy patting myself on the back, because sone of the serious exactas were coming in for me, KINGSTON PANIC starts coming back and remarkably got up for second. For me, no win bet on an 8-5 winner who I loved, and no exacta because of the giant recovery by KINGSTON PANIC. I get nothing.

On June 15, KINGSTON PANIC is the appropriate morning line favorite at 5-2, and it is a contest race. Once again, I assume that those who bet him down to 2-1 in his last race will be all over him again. This time, I liked him too much to leave him off my contest ticket and also bet him pretty good, willing to take the short price.

Short price?  For some reason, players thought that successful amateur driver, Michael Kimmelman was worth 3-5 in a race filled with “A” drivers (Don’t get me started on his magical mystery tour on GAZOO in the second race against “A” drivers after beating the amateurs in the first race) and KINGSTON PANIC paid an incredible $35. Also interesting was that in the contest, 18% of the players were on him. So, if the contest players were indicative of the actual odds of the race, we could expect 5-1, not the crazy 16-1.

Guessing final odds on a harness race in 2024 is similar to market timing on NASDAQ or the NYSE.

Handicapping in the dark.

I submit that making decisions based on what you think the final odds is mostly a fool’s errand in 2024. Of course, if you are playing in a contest, or if you are a public handicapper with the unenviable task of making predictions shortly after the entries are posted, you must make those “too early” decisions. I wish it was different, but this is 2024.

What about those potentially generous payoffs on pick-x wagers? Once again, assuming value plays is a fool’s errand. We will address thoughts on making those bets in a future article.

One final note on KINGSTON PANIC for those who make betting decisions based on odds horses went off in previous races. In his last race at Philly before shipping to the Meadowlands where he was bet down to 2-1, he was up the track at 58-1. Assuming the horse was unplayable because of those odds would have been a big mistake. As previously mentioned, I did not like the horse for that first race at M1, but it had nothing to do with the way Philly bettors appeared to consider him such a poor choice.

In that Philly race, he was in tougher. But more than that, the winner was a heavily pounded down 1-9 favorite. The second choice in the race went off at 20-1. With the small pools at Philly, there was not that many “win dollars” difference between 58-1 KINGSTON PANIC and second choice RACING MONEY. Therefore, the final odds were quite misleading.

Some players like to look at pick-x probables as a guide to final odds. In the early days of those bets, I found those probables to be an excellent guide. Not so much, anymore. Crazy overlays and underlays seem to be the rules instead of the exceptions.

The bottom line is that the game has changed. I still make some wagers based on what I believe the final odds to be, but more often than not, I am playing for the results I believe will most likely happen. Yes, I have been embarrassed with win bets on horses that ended going off at 1-5. I have also backed off of win bets on horses I expected to be odds-on (see the story of GEMINI EXPRESS, above) and could only shake my head at crazy overlay prices.

Surprises go both ways when you are handicapping in the dark.

Power to the punter.

by Gil Winston, for Harnesslink