Showcasing two-year-olds is like playing Texas Hold’em

Talkin’ about putting your cards on the table, June is the month where harness racing trainers showcase their two-year-olds, proving to their owners that their investments—some in the hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars—have been well spent.

The proof, though, won’t be known for several months when the wars of racing for those youngsters has come to an end.

So far, the fastest two-year-old pacers have marks of 1:53.3…but haven’t earned a dime yet.

In fact, 29 juvenile pacers have marks of 1:55 or faster with nine of those under 1:54.

The colt Arson (Captaintreacherous) is the richest of these with a pair of wins in as many starts and $25,000 to show for it as the great Kentucky Sire Stakes program gets under way while six on the sub-1:54 list have yet to earn a single dime.

What’s it all mean?

Practically nothing with the final determination five or six months away…but, on the other hand, one starter in that two-year-old field paced in 1:55.4 and couldn’t even earn the nickel leaving me with the question “what are the rest of the classmates in this division going to do?”

Of course, this leaves owners wondering if they should keep investing in yearling sales when it’s so tough not to drown in the debt with all the expense—-the yearling cost itself and the subsequent training bills until post time.

Comparing the early speed parade, the top 50 (plus ties) have gone under 1:56, 42 of them show earnings of z-e-r-o proving just how tough it is to survive in harness racing.

Of course, that will all change and, like last season and others before, there will be horses that will earn several hundred thousand dollars for their owners.

But the odds are stacked against the vast majority, as one trainer put it, “there’s only room for 10 in the top 10 and hundreds more are s___ out of luck.”

Yes, there are juveniles—both pacers and trotters—that have proven they can win with one example being the trotting colt Dashing Danny (Dover Dan), (undefeated in four starts as of this writing) racing in Indiana where he has won in 2:18.1, 2:07.2, 2:16 and 2:01.2—that last win at Hoosier Park.

He’s banked $7,790 so far under the direction of trainer Donna Loney and driver Logan Loney for owner Mark Wright.

Yet another two-year-old trotter with four wins is the filly Hocuspocusnfocus (Dejarmbro), that has four wins in five starts and $5,882 in bounty to go along with a 2:09.4h mark for trainer-driver Jamaica Patton, who co-owns with Ronald Phillips.

On the pacing side of the ledger, the filly Sour Grapes (Revenge Shark) has an unblemished record in her four starts, good for $3,817 to go along with a mark of 2:03. By the way, longtime Illinois Phil Knox trains and drives for Julie Collins.

Those are just three examples of two-year-old starting their careers on the right hoof.

And they were chosen because these mentions just may be the only mentions that these youngsters get as the season progresses.

And that goes for the hundreds and hundreds of others, too.

Nobody said life is easy…and one way to prove it is to buy a yearling at the sale with hopes as high as the sky, knowing full well that one false step can see those hopes crashing right to the ground.

A total of 53 two-year-olds—24 trotters and 29 pacers have won two or more races to kick off their respective careers with eight of them over $10,000 in bounty thus far.

A couple of extreme examples are Where’s Dragon and M-M-S Bud.

Where’s Dragon is a son of the hot sire Freaky Feet Pete and is undefeated in his three starts.

Trained and driven by James Yoder, who co-owns with Cheyenne Yoder, he started his career with a pair of wins over Indiana’s half mile Conover track in 1:59 and moved over to Hoosier Park, winning in 1:53.4—:26.1…all for the winner’s share of a $3,800 purse.

Couldn’t some of the speedy miles above have been better used in a race for a purse of $50,000 or $100,000…or more.

As my “poker-faced” horseman friend said, “This is very similar to Texas Hold’em poker.

“If you are dealt a pair of kings or aces to begin, would you raise? Don’t think so. You wait for the ‘flop’ (the three cards that follow), the ‘turn’ (the fourth card) and, finally, the last card, known as the river.

“Same thing here. If you know you have a two-year-old that can go in (1):53 this early, why showcase it in a qualifier or baby race purse when you can do the same thing for a purse that means something to start denting your heavy expenses since you bought it.”

On the other hand, who knows if 1:53.4 will be worth anything when the stakes season really gets going.

Speed is wonderful…we are in the era of speed as our breed had focused on—and exploded with—speed.

I guess the question is…which is better? Is it the trotting colt Mont Saint Michel (Cantab Hall) with a three-for-four record in Kentucky with his 2:03 mark good for $15,750 or My Way (Muscle Hill) that has a “Q” mark of 1:56.3 but has yet to earn his first dime.

Success is as good as the trainer, driver and, most importantly, the management of any horse.

No one knows how long any two-year-olds season will be…one start…10 starts…all the way where “it all comes down to the Breeders Crown.”

It’s a very fine line—sometimes a NOSE—that can determine if the year is a profit or loss…and whether the owner will continue to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in yearlings looking for that one world’s champion.

Talk about a long shot…there’s no better definition that when the gavel hits the block and the auctioneer says, “SOLD, YOUR WAY!”

by John Berry, for Harnesslink