Something for our harness racing handicappers

From Billy in Lexington, Kentucky, a huge harness racing fan, comes a communique saying how he was intrigued by the recent morning line posts on the internet with all odds the same, He said, “I am a handicapper and play at several tracks and wonder just how you make a morning line. I am sure a lot of handicappers would find it interesting from an expert like yourself.”

Thank you, Billy, but to set the record straight, I am an expert at “nothing!”

But I am happy to share whatever expertise you believe I have with you and other handicappers.

As you know, these days, the morning line is either done by a track employed individual or the stroke of a finger on a computer program.

It is, merely, an opinion of that one person…or computer program.

Put two oddsmakers in the same room handicapping the same race and, most likely, their “opinions” will somewhat differ.

The morning line oddsmaker has both an advantage and a disadvantage over the serious handicapper with the advantage being that he or she watches every race and may see things that an ordinary fan might not see. The oddsmaker also makes extensive use of replays.

One disadvantage is that a morning line has to be figured two or three days before the race and the oddsmaker does not have the luxury of seeing a horse warm up on race day or its fitness during the post parade.

Personally, I like to see smoothness of gate, wiggly ears, shiny coat and things like that.

After a while, one can notice things from week-to-week that may change our thoughts a bit, as well.

So, the most important opinions are the ones of the bettors, which are pooled to make up the final odds.

In fact, it is very smart for the handicapper to do their own morning line, something I have done very successfully in the past at other tracks when I feel there has been a miscalculation in a morning line.

So, here’s some information for you, our Harnesslink faithful, to do just that.

And it starts with the math part…and that’s where the oddsmaker has to have patience and an exceptional memory—something that I find trying with age.

The morning line should be a mathematical equation that shows the disbursement of 100%—or, as close to 100% as possible—of the “net” pool available to the winning bettors.

It’s a unique equation to the track at which the race is held.

So, what does that mean?

With the odd pennies taken out—known as breakage—the actual net payout could be exactly 100% (rare) but, most likely, will be somewhere between 99.6% and 99.98%.

Breakage can be as much as nine cents (at most tracks) and as low as one cent (in Kentucky).

So, the two things you need to know to begin to make a morning line is the “takeout” on win wagering and the number of horses in a particular race.

When you find that out, you can determine the track’s “magic” number—the number at which you can figure that percentage to take out of the gross pool wagered to determine the net pool available to the winners.

Since “win” takeout might be as low as 14% or as high as 20%, a morning line should be done reflecting each track’s takeout.

For example, if the track’s takeout on win wagering is 19.5%, the “magic” number would be 124 because, when you take 19.5% from 124, you get 24.18, which leaves you with a net pool of 99.82% for distribution to the winners. (Note: it can never be over 100% unless there is a minus pool, but that is extremely race.)

So, the equation looks like this…124 x .195 = 24.18 and 124 minus 24.18 = 99.82.

Yes, it’s sounds complicated, but, once it’s done, it’s done!

To make things a bit easier, here are the “magic” numbers for tracks based on a few takeout percentages…18% = 122, 16% = 119 and 14% = 116.

The next thing to do is assign a point value to each horse based on your opinion of the odds at “off” time.

VERY IMPORTANT, if you are a handicapper, do the morning line BEFORE you actually handicap the race since handicapping influences morning line. (If you do your handicapping before the morning line, every horse you like would be the favorite and, over the years, I have had many horses picked to win with odds as high as 20, 30 or, even, 50 to 1!)

You should base your morning line with point values adding up to the track’s magic number so, in the case of the aforementioned 19.5% takeout, your morning line should add up to about 124.

Again, to make things easier for you, here is a brief explanation of that math.

Since the “net” pool equals as close to 100% as possible, take the odds you have assigned, say 3 to 1, add them together (4) and then divide 100 by 4 and you get 25.

Thus, a horse assigned a morning line of 3 to 1 gets 25 of the 124 points allotted.

Here are some popular point totals (rounded) based on a morning line of…

15 to 1 (6 points), 12 to 1 (7), 10 to 1 (9), 8 to 1 (11), 6 to 1 (14), 5 to 1 (16), 9 to 2 (18),

4 to 1 (20), 7 to 2 (22), 3 to 1 (25), 5 to 2 (28), 2 to 1 (33), 9 to 5 (35), 8 to 5 (38), 3 to 2 (40).

Since there are some point values that have fractional value, two to three percentage points are allowed which will bring a 121-122 total up to 124.

If the takeout is 14%, the track’s “magic” number is 116 (compared to 124) and the morning line with the same number of horses would be somewhat different.

So, a morning line is only valid if it can happen on the tote board meaning, if the morning line adds up to say, 75 to 105, it is faulty and one take can take advantage of that with your “do it yourself” morning line, The same thing is true if the line is 130 or above.

I have seen them as low as 75 and as high as 175 over the years.

That brings me to the critically acclaimed comments received recently on the time I made all six horses 7 to 2 in a Pompano Park morning line.

I heard from experts in the field showing me the line was “10 points heavy” or “way over the limit!” It’s called “constructive criticism,” as they say.

And here’s the answer to that “constructive” criticism.

The morning line is very fragile and can vary when the “odds to a dollar” change even by a single dime.

True, a straight 7 to 2—$3.50 to 1—morning line equals 22.22 points and, when multiplied by six (horses), equals 133 and change…and that is, indeed, roughly 10 points heavy.

But that 22.22 points is only for a single horse exactly 7 to 2 ($3.50 to 1), paying $9.00.

If a horse is $3.60 to 1 ($9.20), the point total is reduced to 21.7.

By the time a horse is $3.90 to 1 ($9.80), the point total is only 20.4. (Times six horses equal 122.4…right in line with the track’s magic number.)

If the morning line had been 4 to 1 for every horse, the line would have equalled 120—too low.

If it had been 3 to 1, the line would have been 150. Even $3.40 to 1 would be 136…too high.

So, the number came in at a “high” 7 to 2, justifying the morning line.

Of course, most tracks take the morning line seriously and the results show that expertise.

by John Berry, for Harnesslink